NCAA Tournament upset picks: Which top seeds should be on upset alert?

Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas and Baylor landed the No. 1 seeds in the 2022 NCAA Tournament. Which top seed will get picked off first?

The 2022 NCAA Tournament field is set and the teams on the top line were never really in doubt after Friday. Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas and Baylor were the final No. 1 seeds in most of the late Bracketology reports and that is exactly where they ended up in the actual March Madness bracket.

The chalk would dictate that these would be the Final Four teams but history says that won’t happen. 2008 is the only year since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 that saw all four No. 1’s reach the Final Four, making it highly likely at least one will fall prior to the last weekend of the season.

Not all paths are created equal, however, so some of the top seeds got an easier path to New Orleans than the others. Let’s take a look at which top seed could be the first to fall, starting with our least likely upset victim in Kansas.

NCAA Tournament upset picks: Ranking the 1-seeds most likely to be upset in March Madness

4. Kansas Jayhawks

Even though they weren’t the top overall seed the Jayhawks have to be thankful for how the bracket played out. Kansas got the No. 1 seed in the South Region and drew a No. 2 seed (Auburn), No. 3 seed (Wisconsin) and No. 4  seed (Providence) that have struggled coming down the stretch.

The trickiest test for Kansas could be a showdown with Wisconsin in the Elite Eight if National Player of the Year candidate Johnny Davis is fully healthy and the Badgers can slow down the pace of the game to a crawl. Of all the top seeds, the Jayhawks look like the safest bet to get to the Final Four.

3. Gonzaga Bulldogs

The NCAA Tournament’s top overall seed is Gonzaga, which was well-earned after a strong regular season. The Bulldogs got placed in the West Region and have a very manageable path to the Elite Eight by taking down either Memphis or Boise State in the Round of 32 and one of UCONN or Arkansas in the Sweet 16.

The selection committee did put the weakest two seed in the Bulldogs’ bracket with Duke but Texas Tech is a very dangerous No. 3. The Red Raiders’ tenacious defense can build upon the game plans that Saint Mary’s used to frustrate Gonzaga down the stretch and makes it possible that Mark Few’s team doesn’t return to the Final Four.

2. Arizona Wildcats

The Wildcats were the second-best team for most of the season but they do face a significant injury concern entering the NCAA Tournament. Guard Kerr Kriisa suffered a sprained ankle in the Pac-12 Tournament and did not return to competition for the rest of the weekend, raising questions about Arizona’s upside if he isn’t fully healthy.

The other issue revolves around the fact that Arizona has a brutal Elite Eight draw against either a seasoned Villanova team or red-hot Tennessee, which arguably should have been on the 2-line instead of Duke. The Volunteers also beat the Wildcats during the regular season, a factor that should give Rick Barnes’ team added confidence if they get that far.

1. Baylor Bears

It shouldn’t come as a shock that the weakest No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament is the likeliest to get bounced early. Baylor held onto a spot on the top line despite losing to Oklahoma in its first Big 12 Tournament game, a result that dropped them behind Kansas on the S-curve and into a brutally tough region.

The Bears have arguably the toughest 8-9 matchup in the draw with either red-hot North Carolina or a Marquette team that swept Villanova awaiting them in the Round of 32. Add in facing either St. Mary’s or UCLA in the Sweet 16 as well as a date with Kentucky in the Elite Eight and the odds of Baylor defending the national championship are rather slim.

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