Nylon Calculus: Lottery teams with postseason potential

The rest of the NBA

With just over a month remaining on the schedule, teams outside the playoff race have different objectives for the final stretches of their respective 2022 seasons.

Those that own their own draft pick — Orlando, Detroit, Oklahoma City, Indiana, and Sacramento — are actively engaged in losing in hopes of securing better odds at a top selection in this year’s draft.

The remaining group consists of a collection of teams that have under-achieved given last year’s performance — the Hawks, Knicks, Lakers, Hornets, and Spurs — that are, for a variety of reasons, uninspiring late-season picks.

Atlanta, who was the darling of last year’s postseason after it made an unexpected run to the conference finals, has underperformed expectations all year. The Hawks’ struggles have come on the defensive end of the floor, which is unsurprising given the roster configuration around Trae Young. Still, they’ve dropped to the league’s 27th-ranked defense after they finished a passable 17th overall last season and elevated their play to sixth-best among postseason qualifying teams in the playoffs.

The Knicks’ woes have come both through regressed play and in lost time to some of their key rotation players. New York was the second-best defensive group in Tom Thibodeau’s first season last year. Through 68 games, the Knicks have dropped to a median defensive team, allowing opponents to score 111 points per 100 possessions. That drop doesn’t appear substantial, but it needs to improve to offset their anemic 1.10 point per possession offense.

The Lakers’ struggles are well-documented — they’re no longer the elite defensive team they were in their 2020 championship season and their roster is older, less healthy, and less efficient. While it hasn’t been bright to count out a LeBron James-led team in the past, the Lakers’ playoff and title chances are non-existent in mid-March.

San Antonio and Charlotte are the two other groups that could contend for a small run in the play-in tournament to qualify for the playoffs. The Hornets, who sit one game below .500, have operated as the ninth-best offense and 24th-ranked defense. Their offensive potential is as explosive as any team in the league, but their inability to control the glass leaves them a level below the Wizards in the East.

The Spurs’ hiatus from the postseason could come to an end as they sit just two games behind the Pelicans for the final birth in the play-in tournament. But even when they played their best basketball in late November and early December, their offensive and defensive numbers were below league average. Dejounte Murray‘s development portends a path to reclaiming their previous success, but the Spurs won’t surpass the Pelicans given their lack of shooting and inept defense.