Mexico Open expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

Breaking down our PGA Tour expert picks for the first-ever Mexico Open at Vidanta as we offer up a winner, Top 10 and more best bets for the week.

An annual trip to Mexico is nothing new for the PGA Tour, but we are getting a new look after the WGC changes for this season that catapulted the tournament at Chapultepec off of the schedule. Instead, the golfing world is heading to Vidanta Vallarta for the first time to play the Mexico Open this week.

We’re looking at a pretty obviously weak field with only six of the Top 50-ranked players of the world teeing it up for the Mexico Open this week. However, that can offer big opportunity for bettors to attack this slate and find golfers who might not have a prayer in some weeks with loaded fields to come up and pay off a nice wager at favorable odds.

The challenge, however, is that we have never seen these players at Vidanta Vallarta. What we do know based on the information available is that it’s a long Par-71 course at nearly 7,500 yards and, with the course at sea level, it’s going to play that way as well. That means how players perform off the tee and on long approaches will be key. There’s also a good chance that scoring will go low, so you need players who can post low numbers consistently.

Where does that leave us? Well, the simplest answer is it leads us right into my PGA Tour expert picks for the Mexico Open at Vidanta along with our best bets for this week in golf.

Note: All odds are courtesy of WynnBet. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

PGA Tour expert picks for Mexico Open: Winner, Top 10, One and Done

Top 10 pick for the Mexico Open: Sebastian Muñoz (+300)

Over the last 20 rounds, Sebastian Muñoz ranks sixth in this field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and, while he’s a slightly above-average 84th in driving distance, he’s 34th on the PGA Tour in proximity on long approaches (200 or more yards out). That’s a recipe for success at this event from what we know and Muñoz is due to pop after reeling off Top 40 finishes with ease in the 2022 calendar year (but not finishing Top 20). In this field, I like for him to emerge and crack the Top 10.

One and Done Pick, Pick to Win Mexico Open: Gary Woodland (+2200)

Jon Rahm is installed as the extremely heavy favorite for the Mexico Open at +500 odds to win. You’re a fool to bet on that or any finish for him this week. In fact, the last time he was this heavy of a favorite was the Fortinet Championship — he missed the cut.

One player I love, however, is Gary Woodland, who is part of the next wave of players in terms of the odds and favorites. He’s been trending towards the form he showed when he won the U.S. Open lately, most notably ranking second in this field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over his last 20 rounds. More importantly, he’s the only player in the Top 5 of that metric who hasn’t been losing strokes putting. Ranking 14th in driving distance, 22nd in proximity from 200+ yards out, and after finishing T8 at Valero, I love for him to break back through and get the win this week, making him my outrigh pick and One and Done pick.

PGA Tour best bets for the Mexico Open

Iain MacMillan and I are going through our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets every week on Green on the Greens for the BetSided YouTube channel. You can check out this week’s picks below and watch us live every Monday at 6 p.m. ET.

Kevin Na to Miss the Cut

If you just look at the recent results, you might get intrigued by Na’s form coming into this tournament. His last three starts have resulted in a T9 at Match Play, T14 at The Masters and T26 at RBC Heritage. Vidanta is going to be a different bear for Na, however. The length of this course will be a hindrance to a player who ranks 192nd in average driving distance and 133rd in proximity on approaches from 200 or more yards away this season. With that and short game being largely not that important here, I’m fading Na hard and thinking he misses the cut at what I’ve seen around +275 consensus odds.

Aaron Wise to finish Top 10 (+300)

Wise is the perfect type of player to bank on for this tournament. He has flashed throughout his career, is a long-hitting ball-striker and can take advantage of a weak field. That’s why I like him for the Top 10 and why Iain MacMillan has him as an outright pick over at BetSided.

"Wise ranks 58th in birdie or better percentage on Tour, sixth in Par 3 scoring, 40th in total strokes gained, and 24th in strokes gained: off-the-tee. Considering this is a weak field, he probably ranks near the top in all of those categories among this week’s participants. He’s also finished 21st or better in two of his last four starts, so I he’s been in decent form as of late."

I’m not opposed to a sprinkle on Wise to win but am certainly comfortable in a Top 10 bet.

Scott Stallings to finish Top 10 (+650)

One thing I’ve wanted to reiterate is taking big swings this week because the strength of field can provide value. Stallings as a Top 10 play fits that bill.

The veteran comes into this event off of two missed cuts at Zurich and RBC Heritage but neither of those venues fit him. Overall, he’s ranked 20th in driving distance and 11th in proximity from 200+ yards out on approaches over his last 12 rounds, which led to a T13 at Valero and T16 at Valspar. He’s a well-rounded player who can handle the distance demands and I love the odds you’re getting on this finish.

Tyler Duncan to finish Top 20 (+350)

The one thing that scares me about Tyler Duncan in this event is that he’s not particularly long off the tee, barely ranking inside the top 150 in driving distance this season. However, where he’s thrived is with his long approaches, ranking 29th in proximity on approaches from 200 or more yards out. He’s played well with three Top 30 finishes in his last five starts and a T14 and T12 in his last two outings. In this field and with the value for his odds in his current form, I love a Top 20 play for Duncan.

Longshot pick to win: Joseph Bramlett (+12500)

As mentioned, this is a good week to take some swings and I’m sprinkling on a guy like Joseph Bramlett. The guy is a titan off the tee, ranking sixth on the PGA Tour this season in driving distance and also thriving with long approaches, ranking 25th in proximity on 200+ yard approaches. The rest of his game is a bit suspect but I love what he’s capable of with his distance at this course and in a potential birdie-fest.

For more from The PGA Tour, make sure to follow FanSided and stay tuned to our golf hub for all the latest news and results.