Tackling the odds for the Wells Fargo Championship at TPC Potomac with our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets for the week.
Golf fans may have grown accustomed to the Wells Fargo Championship meaning a trip to Quail Hollow in Charlotte, NC, but that won’t be the case for the 2021-22 season. With the President’s Cup heading to the normal site for this tournament, the PGA Tour will take a trip to TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm, which once hosted the Quicken Loans National in the late 2010s.
So while it’s less the case than last week’s Mexico Open at a brand new venue, we are working with a limited data set as we look into the odds and make our PGA Tour expert picks. After last week, we need that little bit of data, however, to get back on track.
The only pick we hit on last week was an Aaron Wise Top 10 bet. Outside of that, we missed the mark. That just means it’s time to get back in the fold with a deeper field at a course where driving accuracy and approach play will be critical for the Par-70 track. With that, these are my PGA Tour expert picks and best bets for the Wells Fargo Championship.
Note: All odds are courtesy of WynnBet. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.
PGA Tour expert picks for Wells Fargo Championship: Winner, Top 10, One and Done
One and Done Pick for the Wells Fargo Championship: Tony Finau
Don’t look now, but Tony Finau is starting to trend in the right direction. After a tough start to this year, he’s now finished in the Top 35 in his last four events and capped that off with a T2 finish last week at Vidanta. Most importantly, Finau has been arguably the best approach player in the field over the last 24 rounds. His putting has been an issue still but, if he can bounce back even slightly in an area where he’s been good historically, he’ll post a strong finish at the Wells Fargo.
Top 10 pick for the Wells Fargo Championship: Corey Conners (+250)
Based on everything we know about Conners, this tournament should set up fantastic for him. He’s accurate and long off the tee and is one of the best approach players on the Tour. That’s why he’s one of BetSided’s Iain MacMillan’s picks to win this week:
"If there’s a course that fits his style of play, it’s TPC Potomac. He’s 37th in driving accuracy (not to mention sixth in strokes gained: off-the-tee), third in ball striking, 64th in approaches from 175-200 yards, 79th in scrambling, and 101st in putting, which is actually an improvement on recent years. With it being a weaker field, Conners can really take advantage and snag his second win on Tour."
I do worry about Conners’ ability to close on a win but I love getting +250 for him to finish Top 10.
Pick to Win Wells Fargo Championship: Max Homa (+4000)
Why Max Homa isn’t the +2500 range with guys like Finau, Seamus Power and Keegan Bradley. Frankly, he’s been better than those guys this season and is my pick to win, making him a two-time Wells Fargo Championship victor after capturing the crown in 2019 at Quail Hollow.
Homa has excelled in terms of his approach play this year as he’s eighth in this field over the last 40 rounds in Strokes Gained: Approach and 10th in that metric over the last 20 rounds. He’s also an above-average player in driving accuracy while also having the ability to dial it back and get more accurate when needed. His putter has been a bit cold but that has often been a blip on the radar rather than a trend with him in his career. I love for him to find the groove there and capitalize on his approach play with a win this week.
PGA Tour best bets for the Wells Fargo Championship
Iain MacMillan and I are going through our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets every week on Green on the Greens for the BetSided YouTube channel. You can check out this week’s Wells Fargo Championship picks below and watch us live every Monday at 6 p.m. ET. Also be sure to like, subscribe and share!
Rory McIlroy to finish Top 10 (+100)
On Green on the Greens, Iain called this the squarest bet he’s seen. He’s probably right, but if you’re giving me even or plus odds on Rory McIlroy to just finish in the Top 10, I’m going to take it. McIlroy has far and away been the best tee to green player in this field over any time frame you want to look at and has been playing well all season, just not winning. I do worry about the win equity and he needs to have the driver dialed in with accuracy this week. With that said, though, a Top 10 finish seems all too likely.
Brandon Wu to finish Top 20 (+325)
After essentially doing nothing but missing cuts to start his PGA Tour career after graduating from the Korn Ferry Tour last year, Wu has found his groove. He’s made his last five cuts, including three straight Top 30 finishes and a T2 showing last week in Mexico. Wu ranks seventh in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 20 rounds and has gained 1.26 strokes per round putting over that span as well. Getting him at this number to finish in the Top 20 when he’s trending so well is fantastic value.
Paul Casey to Miss the Cut
WynnBet does not have the odds for missed cuts listed as of right now, but the consensus number for Paul Casey to miss the cut is around +165. For a player who had to withdraw from the Match Play and Masters and has been recovering and rehabbing since then, his first start back could be extremely tough. Between not being healthy or being rusty, I’m taking a risk as this course should suit Casey, but do believe he’s not in a spot to show out well.
Longshot pick to win: Luke List (+10000)
From what we can gather, this doesn’t appear to be a course in which putting is going to factor too much into players succeeding. That means it’s time to look at Luke List once again.
While he’s fallen off a bit as of late, over the last 40 rounds, he ranks second in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He’s been one of the better overall ball-strikers on the Tour in recent years and that should play well at this venue. As long as he can remain accurate with his driver and the putter doesn’t completely combust, these odds are too long to not sprinkle on.
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