AT&T Byron Nelson expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

Breaking down the AT&T Byron Nelson odds for this week’s PGA Tour expert picks and best bets one week ahead of the PGA Championship. 

Though it feels like The Masters was just yesterday, we’re one week out from the second major championship of the golf season. But first, we make a trip to TPC Craig Ranch for one of the most historic events on the PGA Tour, the AT&T Byron Nelson. And we’re coming into this after our PGA Tour expert picks were a bit hot last week.

At the Wells Fargo Championship, we hit our outright winner pick with Max Homa coming out on top (if only we’d have been smart and used him as our One and Done with a pedestrian Tony Finau showing). Corey Conners as our best Top 10 pick missed but we hit on Rory McIlroy at even money. Brandon Wu let us down and Paul Casey withdrew, leaving the miss the cut bet voided.

Is it time to get on a heater? It feels like a good time for that. So let’s dive into the AT&T Byron Nelson with our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets for TPC Craig Ranch this week.

Note: All odds are courtesy of WynnBet. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

PGA Tour expert picks for AT&T Byron Nelson: Winner, Top 10, One and Done

Pick to Win AT&T Byron Nelson: Will Zalatoris (+2200)

We are far past time for Will Zalatoris to win on the PGA Tour. Over the last 40 rounds, the only player in the field who ranks in the Top 5 in both Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Strokes Gained: Approach is Zalatoris. He also hasn’t finished worse than sixth in his last three starts. Even better, the putter has leveled out statistically, even if it’s still a rollercoaster to watch. Throw in the added narrative of him getting his first win in his home state of Texas and I’m riding hard for Zalatoris to get it done and for me to go back-to-back with outright winner picks.

Top 10 pick for the AT&T Byron Nelson: Aaron Wise (+325)

On the chance that you’re new to golf betting, Aaron Wise is a favorite of many bettors because he’s one of the most underrated ball-strikers on Tour. The issue comes with his short game and that’s definitely a concern. However, he comes into this event hitting the ball extremely well, gaining more than 0.65 strokes both off the tee and on approach in his last 20 rounds. More importantly, these greens at TPC Craig Ranch aren’t going to be taxing. With that, give me Wise to ride his ball-striking and not get penalized for his putting this week.

One and Done Pick for the AT&T Byron Nelson: Will Zalatoris

I’m not making the same mistake I did last week with Homa. My convictions that Zalatoris either wins or contends this week is extremely strong, so I’d be foolish to not have him as my One and Done pick as well. He’s playing too well and has been trending for far too long for this to not be a good week to have him in this play.

PGA Tour best bets for the AT&T Byron Nelson

Iain MacMillan and I are going through our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets every week on Green on the Greens for the BetSided YouTube channel. You can check out this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson picks below and watch us live every Monday at 6 p.m. ET. Also be sure to like, subscribe and share!

Kurt Kitayama to finish Top 20 (+400)

With some pretty big names in the field, it might shock you to learn that Kurt Kitayama has been the best in terms of Strokes Gained: Approach per round over the last 25 rounds in this field. It then shouldn’t surprise you that he’s gone T2 and T15 in his last two starts as well. This is a guy who bombs it off the tee but has found his iron game of late. Throw in that he’s a solid putter and he’s trending in a big way. At +400 to just finish in the Top 20, this is a terrific bet.

Justin Thomas to finish Top 10 (+140)

At this point, it’s shocking that Thomas hasn’t won in over a year. He’s playing consistently like a guy who should be winning and he just hasn’t. And his game should be perfect for TPC Craig Ranch, which is why Iain MacMillan has him as a pick to win outright.

"Justin Thomas hasn’t won a tournament since the Players Championship in 2021, and as much as I despise saying that someone’s “due for a win”, but he’s due for a win. Thomas ranks first in the field in both total strokes gained and in birdie or better percentage.Scottie Scheffler is deserving of being the betting favorite this week, but I’m concerned about some level of hangover after his scorching hot start to his year that was capped off with a win at the Masters. I think JT is the much better value pick at 14/1."

At plus odds to just finish Top 10, that’s a ticket you an already consider cashed in your bank account.

Brooks Koepka to finish Top 10 (+300)

Update: Koepka has withdrawn from the AT&T Byron Nelson. In light of that, we have another pick after this write-up. 

On Green on the Greens, Iain and I are at war with Koepka. I have him to finish Top 5 there and he has him to miss the cut. Overall, you can see the “miss the cut” side of things. Koepka’s overall numbers haven’t been good. However, he’s trending in the right way. If you exclude THE PLAYERS where he was on the wrong side of the draw, he’s gained more than 3.0 strokes on approach in three of his last four starts. Those all resulted in Top 12 finishes. In this tournament, I love for him to start trending for the PGA Championship and put up a strong showing.

Davis to finish Top 20 (+250)

If you haven’t been paying attention, Riley has been stringing together some nice finishes. He was runner-up to Sam Burns the Valspar and then finished Top 5 at the Zurich (with Zalatoris) and the Mexico Open. My worry here is that his approach play has not been great, losing about 0.5 strokes per round over his last 40 rounds. However, he’s improved there, is a good driver, and is a Top 20 player on the PGA Tour this season in birdie or better percentage. While I often dismiss putting, this could be a putting contest and Riley can get scorching with the flat stick. For a Top 20 play, there feels like good value for a player who’s on the rise.

Longshot pick to win: Kurt Kitayama (+12500)

Simply reiterating the same points from the Top 20 bet, there is absolutely no reason for Kitayama to have this long of odds given how he’s been playing as of late. He’s long, he’s dialed in with his approach play, and he looks like a guy who is consistently putting himself in position to contend. At these odds, he’s 100 percent worth a sprinkle.

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