Nylon Calculus: Previewing the NBA Eastern and Western Conference Finals

Western Conference Finals preview

The Western Conference Finals features two explosive offenses centered around dynamic creators with a live dribble. Luka Doncic has been the single-best offensive weapon in these playoffs and Stephen Curry is still the best shooter in the history of the game.

The Mavericks’ offensive system is potent through the optimal use of spacing around the perimeter and Doncic’s decision-making in the open floor.

But, Golden State is as well-equipped as any team to slow his individual offensive horsepower — they can share the assignment among Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala (pending recovery from a neck injury), Klay Thompson, and Jonathan Kuminga in hopes of wearing him down over multiple games.

Golden State should be concerned about their ability to contain Doncic in isolation. The Warriors have the second-worst “isolation” defense in the postseason — opponents have scored on 53 percent of such possessions at a 1.12 points per possession rate, according to NBAStats.com. If the Mavericks are able to get high-efficency looks without a running high-screen action, Golden State will need to “hard trap” to get the ball out of Doncic’s hands and hope they can contain Dallas in 4-on-3 situations.

The Warriors will likely start “big” against the Mavericks — who start a smaller lineup themselves with 6-foot-10-inch Dwight Powell as the nominal center — to set the tone on the offensive glass early in games. This affords Golden State the option to give Wiggins the initial Doncic assignment, with Kevon Looney on Powell and Draymond Green on Dorian Finney-Smith to roam as a secondary helper on dribble drives.

Stephen Curry’s matchup with Jalen Brunson, who started off these playoffs with some of his best individual offensive play, will be critical for Golden State’s success. The Mavericks could look to run screening actions to force Curry to switch onto Doncic if Luka isn’t able to get to his shot in isolation. How the Warriors respond; by switching, hedging, or trapping this action; and how successful their response is could set the tone early in the series.

The turnover battle will also be a focal point for Golden State on defense. The Warriors had 16 or more turnovers in each of their six games against the Grizzlies in the previous round. Dallas turns the ball over the least of any of the four remaining teams.

If the Warriors continue to turn the ball over at a high rate, they’ll need to make up possessions on the offensive glass as they did against Memphis. The Mavericks have been willing to allow opponents second chance opportunities so they can field their preferred offensive lineup.

The Warriors should feel some comfort in Dallas’ inability to capitalize on turnovers this postseason — the Mavericks score a mediocre 1.5 points per possession off of steals, per Cleaning the Glass. Dallas will need to maximize these transition opportunities or eliminate second-chance points if they want to extend this series.

On defense, Dallas also has the length to match up well against Golden State’s offensive trio. Finney-Smith is a capable long-armed defender who will likely start on Curry and play minutes on Poole, who’s the quickest of the group with a live dribble. Reggie Bullock and Jalen Brunson can match up with Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins and will hope to bait the Warriors into post-up actions that slow their creative movement off the ball.

The Mavericks will need to force the Warriors into tougher jump shots than the Nuggets or Grizzlies did. Golden State is shooting 49 percent from the midrange and 38 percent from beyond the arc in the postseason, a lethal combination.

Dallas’ offense has been able to create the most openings of any group so far in the playoffs. Maverick shooters have been considered “wide open”, with six feet of space or more, on 27.5 percent of their possessions, per NBAStats.com. Simplistically, this series may be won by the team that creates and makes more open jump shots in the halfcourt.

The Mavericks have already proven they can slow down great offensive teams as they did against the Suns in the previous round. How the possession differential is swayed as a result of turnovers and rebounds could decide which group advances to the NBA Finals.

If Golden State continues to shoot the ball at a highly-efficient rate and cut out the excess turnovers, they should be able to outlast Dallas’ scorching offense. If not, there’s a good chance that Luka and the Mavericks extend the conference finals to another Game 7.