Heisman Watch 2022: How high can Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker climb? We’re about to find out

Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker’s Heisman Trophy case figures to be made or lost over the Vols’ next two games.

This summer, the biggest question with Hendon Hooker’s Heisman Trophy campaign wasn’t about his production. It was whether Tennessee was going to be able to back up his expectedly gaudy numbers with enough wins to keep him in the conversation.

That narrative has changed.

Hooker is stuffing that stat line, throwing for 1,193 yards and eight touchdowns through four games with a 183.73 rating that ranks sixth in FBS, and the Volunteers are more than backing up their quarterback. Eighth in the latest Associated Press Top 25 poll, they’ve already shaken one of the SEC monkeys off their back in taming Florida for the first time since 2016.

While a number of players rode the September roller coaster in and out of the conversation — Kansas’ Jalon Daniels struggling in a win; Minnesota’s Mohammed Ibrahim sitting with injury, and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. taking a loss among them — Hooker’s numbers and the Volunteers start has him right behind C.J. Stroud (Ohio State), Caleb Williams (USC) and Bryce Young (Alabama).

That trio has distanced itself from the pack, with Stroud at +150 per BetMGM, while Williams follows at +400 and Young at +900 — though the defending winner’s position hangs weighs heavily on whether he takes the field Saturday after exiting with injury, which we’ll get into later — and Hooker represents the top of that next wave. He’s jumped from +6600 before the season to +1300, the fourth-best odds overall.

How high he can climb is likely to be determined over these next two weeks, as the Volunteers head to Baton Rouge to face No. 25 LSU on Saturday, and a week later host top-ranked Alabama.

Tennessee’s offense, which leads the nation with 559.3 yards per game and is second in scoring at 48.5 points per, could cause LSU fits. That defense just gave up 438 yards to an Auburn attack that went into that matchup ranked 89th in total offense and gave up 392 yards to Florida State in the opener.

Survive Death Valley and things figure to get very interesting for Hooker and Co. vs. a Crimson Tide defense that’s fifth in both total defense (236.4 yards per game) and points allowed (11.0) … but we’re getting carried away here. Tennessee hasn’t beaten the Tigers since 2005 and last owned the Third Saturday in October in 2006.

Still, three of the last six Heisman winners started the season with odds of +4000 or higher in LSU’s Joe Burrow (+4000) and Louisville’s Lamar Jackson and Alabama’s DeVonta Smith at +10000 each, and Hooker heads into October looking like a potential challenger to follow them. There won’t be a more telling stretch to determine the ceiling of his campaign.

Before we look at the players whose hopes are rising and falling with this week’s stock watch, here’s how this voter’s virtual ballot looks heading into Week 6.

1. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
2. Caleb Williams, USC
3. Bryce Young, Alabama

Heisman stock watch: Which candidates are heating up, which are falling off?

BUY: Stetson Bennett IV, Georgia

Stetson Bennett IV hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in two games going back to Sept. 13 vs. South Carolina, and he had his miscues — completing a season-low 55.8 percent of his passes — as the Bulldogs avoided disaster in a come-from-behind win over Missouri last weekend.

This week, though, feels primed for the fifth-year senior to bolster his stat line as No. 2 Georgia faces Auburn (in what is stunningly the Tigers’ first road game five weeks into the season).

The three FBS teams the Tigers have played rank 60th (Penn State), 68th (LSU) and 100th (Missouri) in passing. They held the Bayou Bengals to a mere 85 passing yards and a 38.5 completion percentage, but this represents an entirely different matchup.

Bennett ranks 11th in FBS and fifth among Power 5 players at 307.2 yards per game through the air, and Georgia is eighth in the country (342.8). Look for him to look much sharper than vs. Missouri, helping his trophy case in the process.

SELL: Bryce Young, Alabama

There’s no bigger week when it comes to Young’s bid to join Archie Griffin as the only two-time winner.

Per coach Nick Saban, the Alabama quarterback remains day-to-day after leaving with a shoulder injury in last weekend’s win over Arkansas, putting his status for Saturday’s game vs. Texas A&M in doubt.

He’s in the top five in the nation in passing touchdowns (14), yards (1,202) and efficiency rating (172.51), and even if Young is out against the Aggies, he’s going to continue to be in the conversation should the top-ranked Crimson Tide continue their annual path to the College Football Playoff.

But history shows us winning another Heisman isn’t likely if Young sits. Just five players have sat out and still won, and it hasn’t been done since Florida State’s Charlie Ward in 1993.

The last reigning winner to miss a full game was Mark Ingram, who was out for the first two games in 2010 with a knee injury and didn’t crack the top 10 in that season’s vote. That’s an unlikely finish for Young unless he’s out for multiple games, but his hopes of hoisting the trophy a second time likely hang in the balance of his status for Saturday.

BUY: Blake Corum, Michigan

Fellow Big Ten back Chase Brown leads the Power 5 with 733 yards and Minnesota’s Mohamed Ibrahim is fourth in yards per game (141.75), but Michigan’s Blake Corum is looking like the position’s best bet heading into the first weekend of October.

Corum is coming off 133 yards in last weekend’s win over Iowa, putting him fourth in FBS at 611 yards and he leads the nation with 10 rushing touchdowns.

Next up for the Wolverines junior is Indiana, which is 69th vs. the rush (142.6 yards per) and was torched by Brown for 199 yards on Sept. 2 and gave up 216 yards to Western Kentucky.

Corum has made a major move in the odds, jumping up to +1800 after sitting at +4000 the previous week.

SELL: Michael Penix Jr., Washington

After being high on Michael Penix Jr. the last two weeks, he’s headed in the wrong direction.

The Indiana transfer went last Friday leading the nation in passing yards, and still threw for 345 and two touchdowns, but also tossed a pair of interceptions — his first vs. Power 5 opponents — in losing to UCLA.

He’ll likely be in for a big day Saturday against Arizona State, which is 88th in total defense (398.6 yards per game), 66th vs. the pass (224.8) and was just burned for 348 yards through the air by then-No. 6 USC and its Heisman candidate, Caleb Williams.

Penix remains a factor and could still wind up meeting Williams in the Pac-12 Championship Game. For now, the stock has taken a hit, and Penix has work to do to get back there.

BUY: Adrian Martinez, Kansas State

He’s been the pumpkin spice latte of college football: big in the fall, then disappears when winter comes. Is this time going to be different for the now-Kansas State passer?

Martinez was a sensation in 2018, when he became the first true freshman to start for Nebraska and was undone by a five-game losing streak to end that year. The following fall, he entered with the third-best Heisman odds, and he and the Cornhuskers proceeded to drop four of the first six games, as Martinez’s numbers took a step back.

In 2020 he went from the seventh-best odds to out of the picture after one game and was an afterthought to start 2021 at +10000 and backed that perception up with five straight losses to open the season.

But he’s back, leaving Lincoln behind for Manhattan, and has something he didn’t in 40 games at Nebraska: a Top-25 win. The schedule gets more interesting after Saturday at Iowa State, with No. 17 TCU and No. 7 Oklahoma State to follow, meaning we’ll know quickly if the latest Adrian Martinez hype has staying power, but for now, he’s gone from +15000 to +1400 in the span of the week. That’s the biggest decrease week over week since Georgia’s Jake Fromm went from +30000 to +2000 between Weeks 3 and 4 in the 2019 season.

SELL: Jalon Daniels, Kansas

At 5-0, Kansas is off to its best start since 2009 and sits 19th heading into Saturday’s matchup with No. 17 TCU. Despite that perfect record, it feels like Jalon Daniels may have already cashed in his mulligan before the schedule even heats up.

Daniels threw for just 93 yards without a touchdown and ran for nine yards and a score in last Saturday’s narrow win over Iowa State. Coming off his worst game of the season, now he’ll face his biggest in the Jayhawks’ first-ranked opponent, which has an offense Daniels and Co. may not be able to match.

The Horned Frogs have been explosive, ranking second in FBS with 549.5 yards and 48.5 points per game behind Max Duggan, the country’s most efficient passer (202.18). He has yet to throw an interception while tossing 11 touchdown passes and is backed by a running game averaging a Power 5 best 275 yards per game that can keep Daniels on the sideline.

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