Nylon Calculus: 15 season predictions for the Eastern Conference

Cleveland Cavaliers take at least 40 percent of their shot attempts at the rim and finish with a top-15 offense league-wide

The Cavaliers made a big splash and are relevant for the first time this century without LeBron James — they deserve congratulatory respect from the NBA fan community. Now, it’s going to be even more fun to see exactly what this collection of eclectic players can become together.

Comparing this team to last year’s is impossible, but we can at least revisit how we got here. Eleven games into last season, the Cavaliers lost their starting point guard and offensive fulcrum, Collin Sexton, to a knee injury and had to revamp their entire offense midseason. Enter Darius Garland, who assumed starting point guard responsibilities and performed so well that he was elected an All-Star. Rookie Evan Mobley blossomed in his first year and finished second in Rookie of the Year voting. Jarrett Allen is also very good at basketball, especially on defense.

In July, the Cavaliers decided to go all on it on the good vibes emerging from last season and traded away Sexton to secure another All-Star, Utah’s Donovan Mitchell. Now, the Cavaliers have two playmakers who can create their own shot and a legitimate case in the best starting defensive frontcourt discussion.

So how do we make sense of all this? If this Cavs team is going to make another leap, it’s going to have to come at the offensive end. Last season they were the league’s 19th-best offense, with a measly efficiency of 112. To get there, I think they double down on their offensive strategy from last year — take open outside shots when available, but emphasize attacking the basket in the pick-and-roll. Cleveland shot 37.5 percent of their attempts at the rim last season, according to Cleaning the Glass. This year I think they are over the 40 percent threshold, which only Indiana and New Orleans accomplished last season.

Chicago Bulls win 40-43 games and are between the 12th and 15th-best offense and 18th and 22nd-best defense in the league.

This team is a head-scratcher for me. Were they actually that good last year? Did DeMar DeRozan just have a career year while everyone played well enough? Is Zach Lavine’s injury a major concern long-term? How is a team so obviously constructed with an “offense first” mentality so mediocre on that side of the ball?

The Chicago Bulls, ladies and gentlemen.

Let’s start with this: I think the Bulls’ projection will be among the hardest to make of any this season (nobody is touching Brooklyn here). I think most would expect them to do largely the same because the team hasn’t changed — Lonzo Ball is still troubled with injuries and the roster was largely left alone aside from the Andre Drummond-Tristan Thompson swap (with all due respect to Goran Dragic and rookie Dalen Terry).

This might be their biggest concern — that they stood pat when a lot of teams ostensibly got better (Boston added veterans, Brooklyn returned to health, Philadelphia filled in some gaps, and Cleveland secured Donovan Mitchell). The Bulls aren’t the Miami Heat, who can take the same tepidly-exciting roster from last season and somehow grind 50-plus wins out (more to come).

Vegas has Chicago projected to win about as many games as they lose, which sounds right to me. In fact, Chicago may be definable as the median NBA team this season. The Bulls should be able to score, though not with the likes of Milwaukee, Boston, Brooklyn, Philadelphia, Cleveland, or even Atlanta. They have some defensive talent — but they’ll struggle against dynamic scoring threats on the wing or in the backcourt (that is, almost every NBA team).

And really, maybe it’s more realistic, and certainly much less sexy, to project them to be about the same as they were last year. The Chicago Bulls are the 2023 NBA’s version of the Spiderman meme.

Detroit Pistons are a top-20 offense league-wide

The Pistons are the most highly-anticipated (likely) lottery-bound team in recent NBA history. And for good reason; they have Cade Cunningham, who projects to be a bonafide star at point guard coming into his second year and a high-scoring combo guard in rookie Jaden Ivey. Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, Jalen Duren, and Boj Bogdonavic fill out the majority of the rotational minutes for this team. (Killian Hayes, Nerlens Noel, and a healthy Marvin Bagley III should also see the time.)

What isn’t clear is just how quickly this newly-assembled group will mesh together, and that’s why I think we’re a season away from being able to clearly project this Detroit team as a play-in contender.

In the meantime, we get to see just how successful these Pistons can be on offense — which is the bullish bet for the team that’s a year away from being a year away. After finishing an abysmal 28th overall last season, I think Detroit make a significant leap on that side of the ball.

Indiana Pacers become a bottom-10 offense and remain a bottom-10 defense in the league

I don’t expect that this team is attempting to win many games this season, which is a smart move.

Last season, the Pacers did well to manage the same offensive output as their divisional rival Chicago Bulls (which is startling if you’re a Bulls fan) with a roster comprised of half a season of Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield, half a season of Domantis Sabonis, half a season of Myles Turner, and one complete Malcolm Brogdon campaign.

If the Pacers do overachieve, it’ll come from improved defense to compensate for the inevitable decline in their offensive efficiency from a season ago. But I think, as a result of the incentives of the current draft lottery, they’ll be below average on both sides of the ball.

Milwaukee Bucks finish third in the East but win the 2023 NBA championship

Milwaukee is so awesome that I don’t think they even need to prove it in the regular season. This rendition of the Bucks is largely unchanged from those during the Giannis-Budenholzer era — they replaced Bryn Forbes with Joe Ingles and kept their remaining lineup intact.

Milwaukee is the NBA’s boogeyman; they could be truly terrifying from opening night to mid-June, and I think there’s a strong chance that they accomplish their end goal. But I also get the impression they’re starting the 82-game season with the abject boredom of a high school senior. These Bucks have already gotten into the college of their choice.

If they were trying to blow the doors off every team night after night, I might pick them to be the top team on both ends of the floor this season, a true two-way juggernaut. But because I think their eyes are only on one prize, I’ll settle for that with my prediction as well.