Nylon Calculus: 15 season predictions for the Eastern Conference

Atlanta Hawks improve their defense by at least 10 spots and are 18th or better league-wide

This Hawks team has been such a rollercoaster ride over the last two seasons, and this year they look to have found some stability. They made both big and small offseason acquisitions — the big in the form of guard Dejounte Murray — that fit the mold of the existing roster quite nicely, even if it doesn’t elevate their ceiling to a championship level, in my opinion.

Murray is the right guard to pair with Trae Young — given that Young is the worst defensive player by the numbers in the NBA. Murray’s off-ball shooting has been mentioned often throughout the summer as we all try to project where this team could go, and I would bet on Murray figuring out whatever role this pair requires him to assume in order for the group to be successful.

Losing Danillo Gallinari and Kevin Huerter hampers the offense slightly, but the additions of Mo Harkless and Justin Holiday should largely offset that drop if you believe, like I do, that De’Andre Hunter makes a leap in his fourth season.

The Hawks are somewhat deep, Frank Kaminsky’s addition and fan favorite Onyeka Okongwu offer Nate McMillan the versatility to optimize lineups for one side of the ball. Clint Capela is still really good and should benefit as much as Young from Murray’s addition.

The hope is that Bogdan Bogdanovic can lead secondary units as a playmaker and lead scorer on the dim January nights where it’s needed. Atlanta’s bench is full of young, dynamic players, some of which have a proven ability to score at a high level (to be determined if it will translate to the NBA).

The Hawks were the league’s second-best offense and its 28th-best defense in 2021-22. If they can keep their scoring in the top 10 and bring their defense to the league median, they should escape the play-in tournament. If not, this season may be another disappointment.

Charlotte Hornets are the 10th-best offense or worse and the 20th-best defense or worse and miss the play-in tournament

The Hornets were last year’s Pistons —young and brimming with a wave of optimism on the shoulders of a point guard who’s fun to watch — and well, things change quickly in the NBA. Unfortunately for one of the league’s least-successful franchises, it looks like 2022-23 will be yet another reset.

LaMelo Ball is still the most-promising prospect on the roster, an unfortunate reality of a team that’s been just good enough to not make a playoff appearance and secure a highly-coveted draft pick — the NBA’s version of purgatory. He might also be the best player on the team, though a healthy Gordon Hayward would have a bone to pick.

If PJ Washington’s outside efficiency continues on the trend of the last two seasons, the Hornets should have enough offensive talent in their starting lineup to keep games close. Terry Rozier has shown a propensity to be an off-ball option with Ball as the lead creator.

Charlotte was the league’s sixth-best offense last season and this season we’ll find out how much Miles Bridges contributed to the Hornets’ success on that side of the floor. Charlotte was also the 20th-ranked defense, which might have been an overachievement given the defensive talent on the roster. My bet (sorry Hornets fans) is that they regress in both and miss the play-in tournament this year.

Miami Heat are the fourth-best team in the conference or better and are a top-10 team on both sides of the ball.

Last season was all but a success for the Heat. They overachieved relative to almost everyone’s expectations of them, were the conference’s best team by record, reached the conference finals, and stretched the series to seven games against a talented Boston team.

The roster is essentially unchanged from last season — they flipped KZ Okpala for another young prospect, Nikola Jovic. Tyler Herro signed an extension to cement the team’s core for the foreseeable future.

I can’t predict the Heat to regress this season. This team is very good, every member of the roster and staff has proven their ability in the past, and they continue to outpace everyone’s expectations of them.

As the 11th-best offense and the ninth-best defense last year, I think this team remains about the same.

Orlando Magic are in the top 20 offensively and the bottom 10 defensively in the league

The short story on this Magic team: they should be better than they were offensively a year ago. They added first-overall pick Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner showed his high-ceiling potential at Eurobasket over the summer, and Jonathan Isaac is supposedly going to play basketball in 2023.

The Magic were the worst offense in the league last season. They may have some injury concerns at point guard (once again), with Markelle Fultz currently sidelined because of a (reportedly) minor toe injury and Jalen Suggs having another injury in preseason (he’s available for opening night). Cole Anthony is a solid backup or third-string point guard, and Jamahl Mosley will have a lot of options to toggle and pair the three in different lineup combinations.

The Magic didn’t get significantly better on paper aside from adding Banchero and Isaac returning to the lineup. But with another year of experience for this young team, I think their offense will start to blossom. They certainly won’t be near the bottom of the league this season.

Defensively, Mosley and company overachieved with the 17th-best defense, allowing a manageable 113 points per 100 possessions. I also expect that they regress somewhat on this side of the ball.

As far as playoff hopes, I think this team is still a year-plus away given Banchero will still be learning on the fly and the East features a plethora of talented teams. But this year could be the foundation for a team with high expectations later this decade.

Washington Wizards finish as a top-15 offense league-wide

The last of our East teams is one of the most uninspiring, both in terms of predicting how this season will play out and where they’re headed in the future.

Bradley Beal is the lone household name, but the Wizards’ rosters featured a number of talented players with lesser profiles. Among them, Kyle Kuzma’s progression has been the most remarkable.

Per Cleaning the Glass, last season Kuzma increased his usage from 19 to 24 percent and his assist percentage rose from 10 to 16.5 percent. While his 3-point efficiency dipped from 37 to 35 percent, he increased his efficiency from both the rim and midrange on a larger volume of attempts. Kuzma proved that he has the potential to become an even more versatile player in the future, one who can create for others and himself, score, and defend.

Any bullish bet on the Wizards this season must also include a bullish bet on Kuzma’s progression. They’ve already maximized the impact that Beal can have (his third-team All-NBA ceiling is nothing to scoff at) and don’t have another true on-ball creator beyond the aforementioned duo and Will Barton.

Kristaps Porzingis and Rui Hachimura both have the potential to excel in their respective first full season in a Wizards uniform (Porzingis arrived at the trade deadline last February and Hachimura missed the start of last season for unknown reasons, dealt with injuries throughout the 2020-21 season, and began his NBA career in the COVID-shortened 2019-20 season).

The question for a team with so much individual offensive talent: can they become an above-average offensive team? Last season they were the 22nd-ranked offense, partially due to Beal being sidelined after the All-Star break with a wrist injury. Assuming health, this team should be better on that side of the ball because it’s their only hope of reaching the play-in tournament.