Heisman Watch 2022: Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker starring in Joe Burrow sequel?

Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud remains the leader, but the Volunteers’ Hendon Hooker continues to make a compelling case for the Heisman Trophy

What were those conversations like when they dropped the script on SEC commissioner Greg Sankey’s desk? Was it too soon for a sequel? Was anyone going to notice, or even care? After all, it was just recycling a story with a familiar big bad.

Consider Sankey college football’s version of Kevin Feige, because like the Marvel Studios president, he’s expanded the SECU and has another star-in-the-making at the center of it all.

Tennessee and Hendon Hooker slayed Alabama — the sport’s version of Thanos — and while this Heisman Trophy race still has Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud as its leader, there are more than a few seeds of the plot we saw play out with LSU’s Joe Burrow in 2019.

There’s the backdrop of a transfer in his second season with a program — Burrow starting at Ohio State; Hooker coming from Virginia Tech — and each opening that year deep into the list of Heisman long shots trailing a passer coming off a top-three finish (the Crimson Tide’s Tua Tagovailoa in 2019, Stroud this year). Hooker went into Week 1 at +5000, akin to Burrow, who was at +4000 three years ago, but by the midpoint of his winning season Burrow had jumped to third. That’s the same spot Hooker was in after Week 6.

Then came the Crimson Tide.

Burrow knocked them off Nov. 9 and jumped into the Heisman lead, never looking back on the Tigers’ way to an undefeated season and a landslide trophy win that included the biggest margin of victory in history.

Hooker has that win too, throwing for 385 yards and five touchdowns — two more than Burrow had in that matchup — to beat Alabama 52-49 last Saturday, and in the process he joined Burrow as one of only three quarterbacks since 2015 to lead an offense to 28 or more first-half points vs. the Crimson Tide.

Hooker, though, doesn’t have that Heisman lead after taking down Alabama.

Stroud is the wrinkle in this retelling. Per Bet MGM, the Buckeyes quarterback remains the clear leader at -110, but Hooker has catapulted into second at +600. That’s the same spot Burrow was in at this stage of the season, which was ahead of that clash with Tagovailoa, the front-runner at -160. Unlike Burrow, Hooker doesn’t have a chance to outdo the top contender on the field, but it’s worth noting that Tagovailoa didn’t end up with the trophy despite the third-best odds since 2012 at Week 8. Next on that list? Stroud at -155.

But instead of besting the trophy race leader head-to-head like Burrow did in his story’s second act, Hooker may need to rely on a resume that could be far superior.

Tennessee faces No. 1 Georgia on Nov. 5 in Athens, that coming after No. 19 Kentucky on Oct. 29 (no disrespect to this week’s opponent, UT Martin, which knows its place in this hierarchy). While Stroud still has No. 16 Penn State (Oct. 29) and No. 4 Michigan (Nov. 26), Hooker could boast six Top-25 wins — including the defending national champion (the Bulldogs) and another College Football Playoff team (Alabama) — to what figures to be three for Stroud, buoyed by the Wolverines. Plus, should Tennessee play in the SEC Championship Game, it’s all but guaranteed another ranked opponent, and there’s currently one opposite Ohio State in the Big Ten (No. 18 Illinois).

It’s not a beat-by-beat retelling of Burrow and 2019 LSU — they’re at least not insulting our intelligence here, folks. But the threads are there, at the helm of explosive offenses turning things upside down in the SEC and knocking off the West’s juggernaut program in the process. Hooker is trending toward a compelling case to follow in Burrow’s footsteps, or at the least provide a test of just how big a lead Stroud has built up.

Before we look at the player who are rising and falling in this race, here’s how this voter’s virtual ballot stacks up after seven weeks.

1. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
2. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
3. Caleb Williams, USC

Heisman stock watch: Which candidates are heating up, which are falling off?

BUY: Max Duggan, TCU

He’s been collecting Big 12 Heisman hopes like they’re trophies in their own right. In a span of three weeks, Max Duggan has fueled an offense that’s knocked off No. 18 Oklahoma and Dillon Gabriel — who to be fair, was knocked out in the second quarter with a concussion — No. 19 Kansas and Jalon Daniels, and last weekend, Spencer Sanders and eighth-ranked Oklahoma State.

Now, the Horned Frogs quarterback gets a shot at another would-be contender in the conference as they host No. 17 Kansas State and Adrian Martinez. But how much more before he gains some real momentum? Duggan, who is sixth nationally with a 179.91 efficiency rating, is 11th among Power 5 players in total offense (308.7 yards per game) and is the only player in those conferences with 14 or more touchdown passes to have thrown just one interception, went from off the board this summer to +5000 odds (tied for 12th). Those have been static the past two weeks, though. If he takes down Martinez, will it be enough?

With just one more ranked opponent (No. 20 Texas on Nov. 12), Duggan at the helm of an unbeaten with the nation’s No. 3 offense in scoring (45.8) and yards (526.7 per) is becoming the player we’re not talking enough about.

SELL: Bryce Young, Alabama

It was a near-given after Bryce Young sat out against Texas A&M that he wouldn’t be repeating this season, and it was driven home as he was outdueled by Hooker in Knoxville. Now, it becomes a question as to how Young will finish in the voting.

The SEC West is still very much in play for the Crimson Tide, which hosts No. 24 Mississippi State, followed by LSU and division-leading No. 7 Ole Miss over the next three games. If Young can get Alabama to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game and keep its playoff hopes alive with him at the center of it all, he’ll remain a factor.

But weighing against him is running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who had another strong performance vs. the Volunteers with 151 total yards — including 103 rushing — and three touchdowns. Gibbs’ odds have jumped from +3000 to +2500 in the last week, putting him just behind Young (+1800 on the board). Linebacker Will Anderson is slipping (+10000 after sitting at +5000 a week ago), but Young continues to have another viable vote-getter on his team.

Since 1979, nine of the 11 returning winners have made it through the season healthy and just one finished lower than fifth (Jameis Winston, who was sixth in 2014). Unless Alabama is in for a second-half drop-off, it’s hard to see Young dropping to or below Winston’s finish.

BUY: D.J. Uiagalelei, Clemson

Two things stick out in D.J. Uiagalelei’s turnaround.

The first has been in his ability to avoid mistakes. During his sophomore season, he threw more interceptions than touchdowns, but through seven games he’s 17 scores to just two interceptions. The other key element will come into play Saturday vs. No. 14 Syracuse.

The Orange head to Memorial Stadium with the nation’s eighth-ranked defense (268.8 yards per) and have proven equally effective at stopping the rush (11th at 95 yards a game) and the pass (12th at 173.8). Uiagalelei, though, is proving tough to stop because of what he’s been able to do through the air (1,665 yards) and on the ground, where he’s run for 337 yards and four scores, already surpassing last year’s rushing production.

Look for Uiagalelei to keep rolling in a slate that’s opening up, with the Tigers not scheduled to face another currently ranked opponent until potentially the ACC title game. If the season were to end today, they’d face No. 22 North Carolina, which is running away with the Coastal Division.

SELL: Caleb Williams, USC

The biggest performance of Caleb Williams’ short time at USC wasn’t enough against Utah, as he threw for season highs in yards (381) and touchdowns (five) in the Trojans’ first loss.

He and USC are off this week before they head to Arizona on Oct. 29, and while Williams is still a contender — he’s still on this voter’s aforementioned virtual ballot and the latest odds put him third at +700 — his first setback couldn’t have come at a worse time.

Hooker figures to keep building momentum as the chief challenger to Stroud, while USC doesn’t face another ranked opponent until Nov. 19 vs. No. 9 UCLA. The Trojans have slipped to third in the Pac-12 pecking order behind the Bruins and No. 10 Oregon.

BUY: Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA

Speaking of that Pac-12 pecking order, Dorian Thompson-Robinson is putting up some impressive numbers, ranking second in FBS with a 74.8 completion percentage and fifth in efficiency (180.59) in throwing for 1,510 yards and 15 touchdowns to two picks. Now he has a chance to create a real argument over who the conference’s top contender should be.

He’s already starred in back-to-back wins over ranked opponents — throwing for 315 yards and three touchdowns vs. No. 18 Washington and 299 yards and four touchdowns against No. 11 Utah — and Thompson-Robinson and the ninth-ranked Bruins get another with No. 10 Oregon on Saturday.

UCLA hasn’t beaten three straight Top 25 opponents since 2001, and last beat a top-10 team on the road in 2010. End those distinctions and Thompson-Robinson will have one of the better resumés of anyone in this race.

SELL: Will Anderson Jr., Alabama

Not to pile it on when it comes to Alabama, but if there was a chance of a defensive player making a trip to New York for the ceremony, linebacker Will Anderson Jr. was the easy pick.

The All-American was fifth a year ago, earning the third-most first-place votes, and Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson finishing second showed there’s an appetite for putting a transcendent defender on ballots.

But Anderson hasn’t lived up to his own hype after totaling 91 tackles (52 solo) with 15.5 sacks last season when votes were due. He goes into Saturday vs. Mississippi State with 32 tackles and five sacks and is on pace for 63 tackles and nine sacks. While it’s not all on Anderson, he’s the poster boy of a defense that just gave up 567 yards and 52 points vs. Tennessee, the most the Crimson Tide have allowed since 1907.

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