Heisman watch 2022: Can Hendon Hooker can put a stranglehold on Heisman vs. Georgia? Not so fast

The Volunteers quarterback has taken the lead over Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud ahead of SEC East showdown in Athens, but this two-man race is just heating up

The hype was already loud and deserved for Saturday’s clash between the hedges as Tennessee travels to Georgia. It was only amplified with the Volunteers — and not the Bulldogs, who are No. 1 in the Associated Press and Coaches Polls — sitting atop the initial College Football Playoff Rankings.

It’s a landscape-defining matchup between the defending national champion and the biggest surprise of the 2022 season. But as big as this SEC East showdown feels, the Heisman Trophy won’t be waiting outside Sanford Stadium should Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker deliver another win.

Over the last month, we’ve seen the Volunteers quarterback surge from fourth in sportsbooks’ eyes to the betting favorite at +100 (per BetMGM), overtaking Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud (+175), who at the season’s midpoint had the third-highest odds since 2009.

From that end, you can convince yourself that if Hooker, who already has five Top-25 wins, can score a sixth and all but stamp a ticket to the SEC Championship Game, he’ll only extend that lead and put a veritable stranglehold on the award.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

There’s a lot of LSU’s Joe Burrow in Hooker’s season — which we’ve discussed in this space before — but the difference is Burrow’s main competitor stumbled (and at his hands, no less, as he and the Tigers took down Alabama and Tua Tagovailoa). Stroud has yet to do that, running the Buckeyes to No. 2 in the CFP rankings and so far, beating Hooker in yards (2,377 to 2,338), touchdowns (24 to 21) and efficiency rating (200.16 to 191.64) and has a game that could be just as big, if not bigger in terms of the Heisman, than anything Hooker has had or will have.

Hooker won a duel with defending Heisman winner Bryce Young on Oct. 15, the Crimson Tide passer in what amounts to his Heisman Moment (and the only one anyone has produced so far). But the truth is, Young was all but out of the race after having missed a game and a half. What’s building in the Big Ten would have Stroud and the Buckeyes vs. a fellow unbeaten and playoff contender in Michigan, which has its own trophy contender in Blake Corum. The running back is tied for third in the odds (+1400) and should only move higher as the Wolverines stay perfect.

Yes, barring Hooker taking himself out of the race, Stroud’s best chance at retaking the Heisman lead may well be built by the continued success of the Buckeyes’ biggest rival before they meet Nov. 26 in Columbus.

Oh, the irony.

Chaos could reign, and it could begin when Hooker faces his biggest test yet vs. the Bulldogs and a fourth-ranked defense that has allowed 200 or fewer yards through the air six times. As of this writing, Georgia, which is riding a 12-game home winning streak dating back to Nov. 12, 2019, is an 8-point favorite.

But should Tennessee get out of Athens with a win, what it will really amount to is a flag planted.

This is a two-man race, and it’s setting itself up to be one of the most fascinating ones we’ve seen in some time.

Before we dive into this week’s stock watch, here’s how this voter’s virtual ballot looks after nine weeks.

1. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
2. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
3. Caleb Williams, USC

Heisman stock watch: Which candidates are heating up, which are falling off?

BUY: Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama

Coming off a mere 37 yards on 10 attempts, his lowest production on double-digit carries since last Oct. 2 vs. Pitt when he was at Georgia Tech, Jahmyr Gibbs is poised for a rebound as No. 6 Alabama heads to No. 15 LSU.

The Tigers are 66th in rush defense in allowing 142 yards per game and have allowed a 100-yard rusher in each of the last three games, with Tennessee’s Jabari Small going 127, while Florida’s Anthony Richardson went for 109 and Ole Miss’ Quinshon Judkins totaled 111.

Similar production is key, as Gibbs finds himself third in the running back pecking order at +5000, behind Corum (+1400) and Illinois’ Chase Brown (+4000). Two things are weighing in his favor, though. The first is his team’s place in the playoff conversation, with the Crimson Tide having the third-best percentage chance of making the national championship (32.4 percent) per ESPN’s College Football Power Index; the second is Young all but assured of not repeating.

Gibbs has every opportunity to seize the spotlight and that beings in Baton Rouge.

SELL: Stetson Bennett IV, Georgia

Against a Florida defense that went into Jacksonville ranked 90th against the pass and had two interceptions in its previous four games, Stetson Bennett IV was shaky. He threw two picks and had his lowest completion percentage (50 percent) since Nov. 7, 2020.

Now he has to go toe-to-toe with the Hooker in the highest ranked matchup ever played at Sanford Stadium.

It’s not like Bennett hasn’t performed on the big stage before. He did throw for a combined five touchdowns, no picks and 537 yards in the Orange Bowl semifinal and the national championship game, but Hooker and Co. have had a way of putting pressure on opposing offenses.

Georgia’s defense may limit the Volunteers, but it’s unlikely they completely stymy that high-scoring offense. If Bennett presses to keep up, Tennessee has shown the ability to take advantage of the urgency its offense creates, leading the SEC in interceptions.

BUY: Max Duggan, TCU

When is Max Duggan going to get his flowers? He’s one of only three FBS players have thrown for 20 or more touchdowns and thrown two or fewer picks, along with Hooker and USC’s Caleb Williams; and he’s third in rating (185.48), trailing C.J. Stroud and Hooker.

Duggan has collected four Top-25 wins along the way, with another — No. 24 Texas on Nov. 12 — still on the schedule, as the Horned Frogs debuted at No. 7 in the CFP rankings.

Despite all that, he’s listed with the seventh-best odds (+3000). The coming weeks could change that, as the players above him all face key matchups, while TCU has a more than manageable path to the playoffs. But for now, the reality is that with 2,212 yards passing and 22 touchdowns to two interceptions on an undefeated team, the sportsbooks aren’t high enough on Duggan.

SELL: Will Shipley, Clemson

Right back in the playoff mix, Clemson debuted at No. 4 in the initial CFP rankings, and while the Tigers may be at the forefront of that conversation, they’re lacking in the Heisman department.

The attention has shifted from the roller coaster ride known as D.J. Uiagalelei to Will Shipley, with the running back looking strong of late. The sophomore went for 172 yards and two touchdowns last time out vs. Syracuse and ran for 121 yards the week before that against Florida State.

Now Clemson now heads to Notre Dame, which crashed and burned after its lofty preseason expectations, but has rebounded behind its rush defense. The Irish just held Syracuse to 61 yards on 25 carries, and over the last six games has allowed an average of 107.6 yards per game, a figure that would put them in the top 18 nationally.

Shipley may change that, but the overall numbers — he’s 27th in FBS in rushing yards (739) and 17th in all-purpose (135.3 per game) — just aren’t gaudy enough to think he can make a legitimate climb from his current standing of +10000 (tied for 12th).

BUY: Caleb Williams, USC

Tied with Corum at the top of the second tier of contenders behind Hooker and Stroud, Caleb Williams has been lighting up Pac-12 pass defenses, combining for 792 yards, 10 touchdowns and no interceptions over the past two weeks … and that’s just the beginning.

He and USC’s next two games are against two woeful pass defenses in Cal and Colorado. The former is 126th vs. the pass and just gave up 412 yards and three touchdowns through the air to Bo Nix and Oregon; the latter is 88th and has allowed 435 yards or more twice.

Williams and the Trojans still have to get through a November slate that also includes No. 12 UCLA and Notre Dame, but the stage is being set for the Pac-12 to have showdown to determine its top contender should USC meet Nix and the Ducks in the conference championship game.

SELL: Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee

If Hooker is the ghost of 2019 Burrow unleashed again on college football, then let’s look at Jalin Hyatt, Hooker’s top target, through the lens of Burrow’s main receiver from that season.

Ja’Marr Chase led the nation three years ago in yards (1,780), yards per game (127.1) and touchdowns (20) and was fourth in yards per catch (21.19). He didn’t make the top 10 in the Heisman voting, receiving one third-place vote, as Burrow broke a slew of records in his win.

A la Chase, Hyatt leads the nation in touchdowns (14), and is fourth in FBS and first among Power 5 players in yards (907) and yards per game (113.4), exploits that have pushed him to a tie for 10th in the odds at +5000. The limitations with Hyatt come in that his exploits only push the case of Hooker, making it seem unlikely he’s going to steal attention from his quarterback, who just so happens to now be the betting favorite.

Chase was resigned to the Biletnikoff Award in 2019 and that figures to be the case for Hyatt as well.

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