Is Alabama eliminated from College Football Playoff if Tide lose to LSU?

If Alabama suffered a second SEC loss on the season vs. LSU on Saturday night, the Crimson Tide’s College Football Playoff dreams are all but gone.

The best shot for the Alabama Crimson Tide to make the College Football Playoff starts with beating the LSU Tigers in Death Valley on Saturday night.

As simple as it can get, Alabama can get to the College Football Playoff if the Crimson Tide win out. They can overcome a three-point road loss to cross-divisional rival Tennessee if they run the gauntlet and win out. However, what happens if it is indeed a Baton Rouge Saturday night vs. the Bayou Bengals? Is there any hope that the Crimson Tide could make the playoff with an LSU loss?

As weird as it sounds, there is still one way that the Crimson Tide can make the playoff after that.

Can Alabama Crimson Tide make College Football Playoff with loss to LSU Tigers?

First things first, Alabama would have to win its final three games. That would be at Ole Miss next Saturday, home vs. Austin Peay out of the FCS level and then home vs. reeling Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Doing so would get the Crimson Tide to 10-2 (6-2) on the season. Of course, they would also need LSU to lose its final two SEC games at Arkansas and at Texas A&M to finish 8-4 (5-3).

While a win over Ole Miss would get the Crimson Tide the head-to-head tiebreaker, Alabama would still need LSU to be one loss worse than them in conference play. Assuming a victory on Saturday night, the worst LSU could be this season in conference play is 5-3. Keep in mind their two losses on the season are at home to Tennessee and vs. Florida State in the non-conference.

Basically, the only sliver of hope for Alabama to make the playoff as a two-loss team is to win the SEC West and then beat either Georgia or Tennessee in Atlanta, preferably with the Dawgs or Vols as an undefeated team at that point. A neutral-site win over the No. 1 team in the nation might be enough to get Alabama the No. 4 seed in that instance, while also knocking down the East champ to No. 3.

Even in that scenario, it really depends on how the rest of the Power Five shakes out. We may need to factor in how close of a loss it was to LSU for Alabama. If it was by one score or less, they may be given the benefit of the doubt and get in. Then again, this has the feel of the 2016 Big Ten. Two-loss Big Ten champion Penn State did not get in, but one-loss, non-champion Ohio State did.

Overall, it might be one of those scenarios where two SEC teams get in, especially if that is Georgia or Tennessee’s only loss of the season. Alabama may also need Clemson and TCU to drop a game, as well as chaos to reign in the Big Ten. More so, there has to be convincing evidence that a two-loss SEC Champion Alabama team is better than at least two, or three, other Power Five champions.

It is a massive long shot, but Alabama could have the case to get in as a two-loss SEC champion.

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