Heisman Watch 2022: Leaders open door, and Michigan’s Blake Corum primed to take advantage

C.J. Stroud’s struggles and Hendon Hooker’s setback created an opportunity for a closing group of contenders.

Suddenly, there’s something there that wasn’t for Heisman Trophy contenders not named Hendon Hooker or C.J. Stroud.

A chance.

They left the door open after Stroud’s forgettable day in Ohio State’s win at windy Northwestern, and Hooker’s disastrous trip to Athens, as Tennessee was smothered and covered by Georgia. Those quarterbacks remain 1-2 in these proceedings, though Stroud has retaken the leads at +175 to Hooker’s +300, per BetMGM, but the field is gaining on them.

A week ago, those two quarterbacks were the only players under +1400, but now there are five such challengers, with Hooker and Stroud now joined by Michigan’s Blake Corum (+600), USC’s Caleb Williams (+800) and Oregon’s Bo Nix (+800). None of those additional players seem to be in better position to crash the two-man race than Corum.

Up to +600 after sitting at +1400 a week ago, Corum is tied for the FBS lead with 16 rushing touchdowns, is fourth in yards (1,187) and has been an absolute tear, totaling 952 yards over the last six games. That’s 65 yards more than any other FBS player and 104 more than the next closest Power 5 player.

But it’s not just the production with Corum, it’s the potential pomp and circumstance of what’s to come.

In all likelihood, we’ve seen Hooker’s closing argument. Barring a collapse from top-ranked Georgia, the No. 5 Volunteers aren’t playing for an SEC Championship and will be resigned to closing out the regular season vs. four-win Missouri, three-win Vanderbilt and South Carolina, which is 6-3. The stats will come, but the benchmark moments from Hooker’s campaign are basically finished.

Meanwhile, Nix and Williams are on course to meet for the Pac-12 crown as top-10 teams, but both have a loss on their resumes, and Nix has a historically bad one, the likes of which have been a death knell in past races. Without some chaos in the Big Ten, No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan have the biggest remaining game before votes are due as they meet Nov. 26 in Ohio Stadium.

The stakes have been high in this rivalry before, meeting four previous times with both undefeated — in 1970, 1973, 1975 and 2006 — but it’s yet to happen in the College Football Playoff era. Only the most recent of those unbeaten clashes did both enter with legitimate Heisman contenders, when Troy Smith and Co. won en route to his hoisting the trophy, while Mike Hart — currently the Wolverines running backs coach — finished fifth.

Ahead of that clash, Ohio State has Indiana (3-6) and Maryland (6-3), while the Wolverines get Nebraska (3-6) and No. 21 Illinois (7-2), games they’ll both be ridiculously heavy favorites in.

We’re headed for a collision in Columbus with a near-guaranteed spot in the playoff and the only chance any challenge has to steal Stroud’s thunder head-to-head. The opportunity builds for Corum, he can thank the current Heisman favorite for the chance to catch up.

Before we dive into this week’s stock watch, here’s how this voter’s virtual ballot looks after 10 weeks.

1. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State
2. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
3. Blake Corum, Michigan

Heisman stock watch: Which candidates are heating up, which are falling off?

BUY: Stetson Bennett IV, Georgia

A quarterback looked like a Heisman contender last weekend in Athens, and it wasn’t Hooker.

Stetson Bennett IV threw for two touchdowns and ran for another in the win over Tennessee, and in his last four victories over Top 25 teams dating back to the Orange Bowl semifinal win over Michigan, has amassed 11 total touchdowns without an interception.

Bennett’s overall numbers — he’s 14th in yards (2,606), 72nd in touchdowns (11) and 30th in efficiency rating (153.16) — were never going to overtake the field, but there was always the scenario that the Bulldogs’ dominance would allow those key moments to be amplified for their quarterback. We’re getting to that point with Georgia having a clear path back to the playoff, Bennett’s odds jumping from +10000 to a seventh-best +1600 in the last week.

SELL: Bryce Young, Alabama

Of the last seven repeat bids, Florida State’s Jameis Winston at +4000 in 2014 is the only player with higher odds after 10 weeks than Alabama’s Bryce Young (+3300), among those whose season wasn’t cut short due to injury.

With the No. 9 Crimson Tide all but out of the playoff with two losses and resigned to likely watching the SEC Championship Game from home, the only drama surrounding Young is how far down he finishes in the voting.

Since 1964, Winston has the worst finish among healthy players at sixth, and Young’s current odds have him eighth. With a ceiling seemingly in place on Tide’s season, Young finds himself in a precarious position.

BUY: Bo Nix, Oregon

Some key historical notes are firmly against Bo Nix, not that they’re impeding his rise back up the contender list.

As we recently discussed, no player who has suffered a September loss as bad as the one 46-point one Nix and the Ducks suffered at the hands of Georgia has even won the trophy, let alone make it to New York as a finalist. But the fifth-year senior fronts an offense that has scored no fewer than 41 points in eight straight wins in climbing to No. 6 in the CFP rankings, and Nix has passed for 22 touchdowns to three interceptions in that span.

Nix is completing 73.3 percent of his passes, and since 2000, only eight players have had a higher rate (with a minimum of 273 attempts) on teams that won double-digit games. Three of them — Texas’ Colt McCoy in 2008, LSU’s Joe Burrow in 2019 and Alabama’s Mac Jones in 2020 — were all at the Heisman ceremony.

SELL: Chase Brown, Illinois

The good news is that Illinois continues to remain in control of its destiny in the Big Ten West, and that Chase Brown’s string of 100-yard games remains intact at 10 straight dating back to last season. But after last weekend’s loss to Michigan State, there’s some unsavoriness within the numbers of the nation’s leading rusher who has one more touchdown (five) than he has fumbles (four).

The yards alone — with 1,344 yards, Brown is on pace for 1,941 yards should the Illini reach the Big Ten Championship — aren’t going to be enough to keep the junior in this race, especially when he’s third in the pecking order in his own conference behind Stroud and Corum. Brown may get a chance to outperform both of them head-to-head, but last weekend, when he was held to a season low 4.1 yards per carry and failed to reach the end zone don’t generate a lot of faith.

BUY: Max Duggan, TCU

No legitimate contender currently has more Top-25 wins than Hooker with five, but should No. 4 TCU beat No. 18 Texas on the road in Austin, Max Duggan will equal the Tennessee passer. If the current picture holds and the Volunteers are shut out of the SEC title game and the Horned Frogs continue their dash to the Big 12 finale, there’s a strong chance Duggan could wind up with more victories over ranked opponents than anyone in the field.

So, again comes the weekly check as to why the folks in the desert aren’t giving Duggan better odds. He slipped from +3000 last week to current odds of +4000 after throwing for two fourth-quarter touchdowns to beat Texas Tech and move to 9-0 for the first time since 2010. Duggan’s 179.67 efficiency rating is fourth nationally and vs. ranked teams, he’s thrown for 11 touchdowns to one interception.

SELL: Drake Maye, North Carolina

No. 15 North Carolina has been living on the edge all season, playing five games decided by seven points or less, and three of the last four have been three-point games. It’s not because of an offense that’s ranked ninth in the nation, pouring in 40.6 points per game, and averaging 329.8 yards per game through the air (sixth).

The only stress in Chapel Hill has been because of its defense, which is allowing 457.7 yards (122nd), including 277.6 through the air (120th) and 31 points (104th). The most alarming thing is the Heels have yet to face a passing attack that can go toe-to-toe with Drake Maye and Co., with two opponents currently better than 76th through the air.

Sam Hartman and Wake Forest represent a major step up, coming in 14th (308.6 yards per), and have rattled off three straight games of at least 310 yards. Maye has thrived in navigating the Heels through shootouts, but they’ve yet to do it on the road vs. another top-shelf passing attack.

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