Does TCU have to stay undefeated to make the College Football Playoff?

TCU may not be completely eliminated from College Football Playoff conversations with a loss.

The TCU Horned Frogs are one of four teams in the Power Five who have not lost a game this year.

While we are guaranteed no more than three with Michigan and Ohio State playing each other over Thanksgiving Weekend in The Horseshoe, the Wolverines, the Buckeyes and the Georgia Bulldogs could all get in with one loss apiece. As for the Horned Frogs, do they even have any margin for error here? What are the chances a one-loss TCU team can make the four-team field?

Here is what will have to happen for the Frogs to make the College Football Playoff with one loss.

Can TCU make the College Football Playoff without having to be undefeated?

No doubt about it, a 13-0 (9-0) Big 12 champion TCU team will have earned its spot into the playoff. Although the potential Big Ten and SEC champions could be ranked ahead of them, the Frogs would absolutely edge out any ACC or Pac-12 champion, as well as any one-loss, non-champion across the Power Five. As for getting in with maybe one loss, they could still do it…

TCU will play at traditional rival Baylor on Saturday before hosting a mediocre Iowa State team at regular season’s end. The Baylor game is tricky, but there are no excuses to fall at home to the Cyclones on Senior Day. None whatsoever. Even if the Frogs fell to the Bears or the Clones before the conference title bout, they could get in with a Big 12 Championship win over a Kansas State.

For that to happen, the ACC and Pac-12 champions would have to be undeserving, as well as a few things to break their way in the Big Ten and SEC. Clemson and North Carolina can get in if they win out. The ACC is down this year, but the Tigers and Tar Heels have not lost an ACC game up to this point. They have both lost to Notre Dame. TCU would edge out UNC, but maybe not Clemson…

The Pac-12’s last shot at getting a team in is USC, as the Trojans only have one loss on the season. Although the Pac-12 is strong this year, everybody else in the league has at least two losses on the campaign. TCU has beaten a lot of ranked teams at the time, but the Big 12 has not been better than the Pac-12 this season. Plus, the Selection Committee would so pick USC over TCU…

As far as one-loss, non-champions are concerned, TCU would actually get in over the loser of Michigan at Ohio State because the Horned Frogs have played largely better competition. As for the Tennessee wrench in all of this, it is going to come down to style points, as well as the 13th data point in the Horned Frogs’ favor. It is going to be so close there, but why leave that to chance?

The other component here is what if TCU beats Baylor in Waco and Iowa State at home before losing a rematch game in Arlington vs. Kansas State or whomever. Keep in mind that not all conferences are created equally. A 12-1 conference runner-up TCU is not going to be treated the same way if Georgia, Michigan or Ohio State were to succumb to a similar postseason fate here.

In that case, not having a conference championship is going to hurt TCU tremendously because it would not put them ahead of one-loss conference champions coming out of the ACC with either Clemson or North Carolina, or USC out coming out of the Pac-12. A Big 12 title bout loss would probably knock TCU down from No. 3 to No. 6 in the final rankings, if we are being totally honest.

Ultimately, if TCU were to lose a game this year, it must be Saturday at Baylor. It is a rivalry game at essentially a top-four team in the Big 12. Losing at home to Iowa State would be too punitive and a conference title bout loss to Kansas State, Baylor or whoever in a rematch would put a bad taste in the Selection Committee’s mouth ahead of Decision Day. TCU would also need some help.

Although a Baylor loss does not eliminate TCU, an Iowa State one does and maybe in Arlington?

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