How Ohio State-Michigan loser could still make the College Football Playoff

The assumption seems to be that the loser of Michigan vs Ohio State will be out of the College Football Playoff, but that might not be the case. 

With only rivalry week standing between now and conference championship games, there is a lot on the line several big matchups. The USC Trojans can keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive by beating Notre Dame. LSU can do the same against ailing Texas A&M, as can Clemson against South Carolina, Georgia versus Georgia Tech and TCU against Iowa State. But no game is bigger than The Game between Ohio State and Michigan.

After the Wolverines earned Jim Harbaugh’s first win over their biggest rivalries last season, there is even more bad blood than normal and a score that needs to be settled. And it just so happens that the two teams are also No. 2 and No. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings going into the showdown on Saturday in Columbus.

Both teams have been in this spot for several weeks now and come into The Game with unblemished records. Subsequently, the belief has been held that the winning team in the rivalry matchup — who would then advance to the Big Ten Championship Game — would make it into the Playoff while the loser would be left out.

That, however, is not necessarily the case.

With Tennessee losing this past week, the field for the Top 4 in the College Football Playoff rankings has opened up substantially. The games left on the schedule for the seven teams that realistically can still make the Playoff also leave a path for whichever team loses to make it in. However, those paths are not the same.

So with The Game looming on the near horizon, let’s take a look at how each team could lose and still find its way into the CFP.

Ohio State’s College Football Playoff path if Buckeyes lose to Michigan

Of the two rival programs, the Buckeyes have the better resumé to bolster their Playoff chances if they were to lose to Michigan for the second year in a row.

Though it looked actually unimpressive that Ohio State only beat Notre Dame 21-10 to begin the season due to the Irish stumbling inexplicably early in the year, that win has become more and more important for Ryan Day’s team as Notre Dame has started winning and rising in the rankings themselves. That’s a quality win in non-conference play that the Wolverines simply do not have to their credit.

Having said that, another khaki-tinted loss for OSU would take them out of the Big Ten Championship Game and, as such, would require the Buckeyes to get some help if they were going to make it to the College Football Playoff.

For starters, perhaps the easiest possibility would be for Georgia to hold serve on their undefeated season in the SEC Championship Game by beating LSU, thus eliminating the Tigers from contention. Meanwhile, they would also need some combination of Clemson losing to South Carolina or to North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game, TCU losing to either Iowa State or in the Big 12 Championship Game, and USC losing to either Notre Dame or in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Perhaps the most helpful result, though, would be USC losing to Notre Dame in the Trojans’ regular-season finale. Not only would that make Lincoln Riley’s team a two-loss team and surely eliminate them from contention, but it would further strengthen Ohio State’s win over the Irish.

The most critical factor in this, however, is that the Buckeyes play the Wolverines close if they lose The Game. If it’s a blowout loss, that would be a massive red X on the team’s resumé, one that coupled with not being in the conference championship game, could spell their doom.

Michigan’s College Football Playoff path if Wolverines lose to Ohio State

As mentioned, Michigan’s path is less obvious than their rival’s but, at the same time, it’s also very similar.

First, the Wolverines are in the same position that a one-sided edition of The Game that sees them coming out on the losing end would be a death sentence for the team’s College Football Playoff aspirations. That’s even more so the case with Harbaugh’s crew, though, because of their weak non-conference schedule and lack of what the committee would call quality wins overall. That’s why they’re currently ranked behind the Buckeyes, truth be told.

Should they play Ohio State close and lose, though, that will open up the conversation for them to get into the Playoff, though they would likely need more of the above chaos mentioned regarding the Buckeyes to happen than if Michigan were to win.

Put simply, a one-loss Wolverines team not playing for the Big Ten title would almost surely need all of LSU, USC and Clemson to lose to be in the conversation to make it into the Playoff. Moreover, it would also probably be helpful for TCU to lose too, especially if the loss for one of those other teams didn’t come in a conference championship game. Because if LSU, USC or Clemson were to still win the conference title, that could be an ace-in-the-hole that the selection committee would value over Michigan.

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