Nylon Calculus: 15 early season predictions for the NBA Western Conference

Golden State Warriors finish in the top 10 defensively and allow the fewest attempts at the rim for a second straight season

The Warriors have started slowly out of the gates after their fourth championship season in seven tries — a literal dynasty. The Warriors of last season (and other championship seasons) have an identity, one that has largely been misunderstood given they have some of the best jump shooters in the history of the sport. When the Warriors have been at their best it’s because they are an elite defensive team.

Last season, the Warriors had the NBA’s second-best defense due to a strong shot profile and an optimization of the possession game. Golden State forced turnovers on 15 percent of opponent possessions and allowed them to grab a mere 25 percent of their misses, both of which were top-10 figures, per Cleaning the Glass.

They also allowed the fewest shots at the rim and a below-average rate of attempts beyond the 3-point line, and opponents made fewer than the league average of both such attempts.

This season, the Warrior defense has regressed in both offensive rebound rate and foul rate. Golden State has allowed opponents three more free throws per 100 possessions — roughly two points per 100 possessions than they did last season. In addition, opponents are rebounding 28 percent of their missed shots — equal to another roughly two points per 100 possessions for opponents compared to the NBA’s median team.

The good news for these Warriors is that they have the league’s best defensive shot profile through 25 games. Once again, they’ve conceded the fewest shots at the rim, and now they’re forcing the second-most midrange attempts of any team. Opponents have shot an incredible 46 percent on midrange attempts, a number that will likely regress over the next two-thirds of season play.

Golden State has proven they can correct fundamental mistakes — extra fouls and missed defensive rebounds being two prime examples. Given the hot shooting and early strength of schedule, I believe the Warriors’ defense will continue to improve.

Los Angeles Clippers finish as one of the league’s worst offenses

With a third of their season nearly completed, it still feels like the true Clippers haven’t played a game. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have suited up in a total of four games together, with Leonard on a minutes restriction in all outings.

The issue for the Clippers — other than not having a firm identity with their core players — is that they’ve been unable to score the ball over the past two seasons. Yes, it does coincide with Kawhi’s absence from the team. But does his addition automatically guarantee the Clippers become an above-average offense?

I’m skeptical. Through 25 games, the Clippers were below average in three of the “Four Factors”, including being in the bottom-third of the league in turnovers and offensive rebound rate. Their subpar free-throw attempt rate will improve with the additions of Leonard and George, two of the league’s highest free-throw shooters by volume.

The question is whether the offense can find enough stability with the team’s two All-Stars back in uniform to weather a storm that could extend beyond the end of the month. The Clippers were a bad offense last season, with a mostly healthy Paul George, and I don’t see any signs of that correcting in 2022-23.

Los Angeles Lakers finish with a neutral point differential

The Lakers franchise is the most heavily scrutinized in the NBA, and maybe in all of American professional sports. Any sign of dysfunction from this team will be discussed and dissected endlessly because they’re always in the limelight.

The Lakers had a less-than-ideal start to the season, in terms of record and on-court performance. The same issues that plagued the team last season — lack of shooting, depth, and limited availability from their two stars — have been relatively familiar through 23 games.

On paper, the Lakers have a negative one-point differential with a 112 offensive rating and a 113 defensive rating. They’ve started to gain momentum on the back of elite play from Anthony Davis, and the month of December (when their schedule features more winning teams) will be telling for the direction of the team in 2023.

To start, the Lakers should focus on playing with a neutral point differential, something they did not accomplish at any point during last season. This requires either improving their offensive efficiency slightly, which doesn’t seem likely given their personnel, or reviving the elite Laker defense that one them a championship in 2020.

These Lakers force the second-fewest turnovers and foul opponents at the second-highest rate, two areas ripe for improvement defensively. And I believe they will do both and get to a neutral point differential by the end of the season, even if it’s far below the championship expectations that this franchise begins almost every season with.

Phoenix Suns finish as a top-5 offense and defense

Last season, the Suns were one of the best teams of the century — a historic combination of offense and defense that ripped through the Western Conference. Then they fell, in historic fashion, to a good, not great Mavericks team in the second round of the playoffs. That very public disappointment tested the resolve and culture of this group.

Through 24 games, any doubts about whether the Suns would recover from their historic gaffe have been answered. They’re the league’s second-best offense and sixth-best defense, with a plus-6.7 point differential. Absences from Chris Paul, Cam Johnson, and Jae Crowder make their early season play even more impressive.

One area of improvement (in a rather spotless early season resume) to highlight is the Suns’ foul differential. They’ve committed the most fouls of any team so far, and get to the line at the fourth-lowest rate. Opponents have shot 104 more free throws than the Suns have, roughly equal to a three-point advantage per game.

Given this low-hanging fruit, I believe the Suns haven’t reached their inflection point for the season, one that will catapult them into the postseason as a top-5 offense and defense.

Sacramento Kings finish as a top-10 offense and top-10 in 3-point efficiency

Sacramento basketball is back. The biggest question coming into this season is whether new head coach Mike Brown could transform an offense that scored an anemic 1.1 points per possession last season.

The pace at which that transformation has come has been astounding. The Kings have averaged 1.16 points per possession through 24 games, with a team-wide 57 percent effective field-goal percentage, per Cleaning the Glass. (That’s improvements of 45 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively.) The Kings were proficient at getting to the line last season, and so far they’ve doubled down on that strategy.

Sacramento has shifted their midrange attempts beyond the 3-point line; low-hanging fruit that is easy to implement with the right inclusion of shooters. Adding Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, and Keegan Murray has helped, and Terrence Davis’ emergence as an efficient scorer is welcome.

These changes feel very real — and sustainable enough to extend through the remainder of the season. The Kings have become one of the NBA’s best offenses, and as a result, one of its most exciting teams to watch.