Oklahoma, Texas likely to leave Big 12 for SEC a year early

It would make all the sense in the world for Oklahoma and Texas to leave the Big 12 for the SEC a year earlier than expected in 2024.

The growing sentiment across college athletics is that Oklahoma and Texas will join the SEC a year early and leave the Big 12 in 2024.

According to Brett McMurphy of The Action Network, “momentum” is in favor of this. While Oklahoma and Texas said they would ride out the current Big 12 media rights deal, which is set to expire on July 1, 2025, the Sooners and Longhorns’ departures for SEC Country seems to have been accelerated. The “climate is right” for the two programs to join their new league in 2024.

“There’s a lot of moving parts, but there is the desire on many fronts for this to get done.”

Let’s discuss why a premature departure from the Big 12 to join the SEC makes too much sense.

Oklahoma, Texas may leave Big 12 a year early to join the SEC in 2024

McMurphy smartly pointed out four things in Oklahoma and Texas’ favor to leave a year early.

• The Big Ten is gaining two new members in UCLA and USC for the 2024 college season.
• The College Football Playoff will be expanding from four to 12 teams in 2024 as well.
• The Big 12 will be adding four new members in BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF in 2023.
• The Big 12 is currently in the process of securing its new media rights deal anyway.

Clearly, you can understand why it was truly silly for the two teams who instigated this latest wave of college football realignment to be the last ones to leave. Even with their departures, the Big 12 should be just fine in this new era of college football. While the Pac-12 needs to figure something out fast, the SEC cannot afford to fall behind the revenue behemoth that is the Big Ten.

Of course, this is and always will be about the money. This is why it is not a foregone conclusion that Oklahoma and Texas will play one more season in the Big 12 before bolting for the SEC. Oklahoma and Texas will have to pay an exit fee to the Big 12 in order to be bought out. This amount could be as high as $84 million per university, or possibly as low as around $50 million.

There is also the media rights can of worms that might have to be ripped open prematurely if Oklahoma and Texas are able to get out of their Big 12 deal a year early. ESPN is not going to love having to renegotiate with a 16-team SEC upon Oklahoma and Texas joining the fold a year before expected. With CBS getting out of the SEC business, Disney now owns all of the rights for the SEC.

Overall, FOX does not seem to be up in arms about this. Yes, the cable network is losing two massive brands, but it is also seeing the elevation of UCLA and USC’s with them going to the Big Ten. Plus, the ascension of four Group of Five powers up a level is not a bad consolation prize when it comes to them broadcasting future Big 12 games. FOX should be in fantastic shape here.

Ultimately, this really comes down to Disney being willing to re-open negotiations with the SEC after it does expand. Not only that, but with the College Football Playoff expanding as well, it may not be strictly a Disney television property going forward. Frankly, having CBS, FOX and NBC all carrying playoff games will do wonders for the sport of college football, much like with the NFL…

Truth be told, Oklahoma and Texas are too big of brands for this not to happen. Obviously, the universities do not want to pay a larger buyout than they have to, but the stars are aligning for the Sooners and the Longhorns to make the leap up in competition to join the SEC one year earlier than expected. When things are inevitable, you are best served to just accept the future outcomes.

To be quite frank, the sooner were can get the Sooners and the Longhorns into the SEC, the better.

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