NFL Upset Pick for Conference Championship Sunday

We only have three NFL games left to watch and bet on until the fall, so let’s take advantage of these last few chances to wager.

The Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals will face-off in the AFC Championship, while the Philadelphia Eagles will host the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship.

The spreads for both games are less than a field goal, so calling a team to pull off the upset isn’t the hottest take in the world, but my job here is to pick one of the two games that will result in the small underdog winning.

So, do I take the 49ers to upset the Eagles, or the Chiefs to take down the Bengals?

To me, the pick is easy. Give me the Chiefs to beat the Bengals and advance to Super Bowl 57.

Chiefs to upset the Bengals in AFC Championship

The line in this game has shifted all over the place. The Chiefs opened as small favorites, then it shifted and the Bengals became 2.5-point favorites. Now, the line has moved back 1.5-points and Cincinnati is sitting as a 1-point favorite.

I’ll take the Chiefs at plus-money to win this game outright.

If you want my reason for why I like the Chiefs to win this game, you can start by looking at this week’s net yards per play report.

No matter what metric you look at, the Chiefs have been the superior team this season. Sure, Joe Burrow is 3-0 in his three games against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, but let’s not pretend like those games were blowouts. All three were close, and with one or two plays going the other way, the Chiefs could have easily one a couple of those matchups.

Now, obviously, the big question in the game is Mahomes’ ankle injury. Nobody, not even Mahomes himself, knows how his ankle will feel on Sunday. But, based on how well he played against the Jaguars in the second half on a bum ankle, I’m still confident wagering on Kansas City in this game.

It’s time for Joe Burrow to finally take an L against Kansas City.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.