Better chance at winning the Big 12 in 2023: Oklahoma or Texas?

Oklahoma and Texas only have one shot left to win the Big 12 before heading to the SEC.

Fate would have it, the Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorns only have one chance left to win the conference they used to dominate.

While Texas has not been back since 2009, Oklahoma has made the College Football Playoff four times to date without a single national semifinal victory to date. Although it has been a few years since either school won the Big 12, they only have one chance left at doing it. With news of them being able to join the SEC a year early in 2024, maybe one could leave the Big 12 on a high note?

Let’s look at their final Big 12 schedules and see who is best equipped to win the league in 2023.

Oklahoma and Texas have one last roundup to win a Big 12 championship

Here is Oklahoma’s final schedule as a member of the Big 12.

• Sept. 2: Arkansas State Red Wolves
• Sept. 9: SMU Mustangs
• Sept. 16: at Tulsa Golden Hurricane (Tulsa, OK)
• Sept. 23: at Cincinnati Bearcats (Cincinnati, OH)
• Sept. 30: Iowa State Cyclones
• Oct. 7: Texas Longhorns (Dallas, TX)
• Oct. 14: Bye
• Oct. 21: UCF Knights
• Oct. 28: at Kansas Jayhawks (Lawrence, KS)
• Nov. 4: at Oklahoma State Cowboys (Stillwater, OK)
• Nov. 11: West Virginia Mountaineers
• Nov. 18: at BYU Cougars (Provo, UT)
• Nov. 24: TCU Horned Frogs

Oklahoma does not play a Power Five team in the non-conference, although SMU is one of the better Group of Five programs out there. Going to Tulsa could be a trap as well. The Sooners commence Big 12 play at Cincinnati before hosting Iowa State and then heading to Dallas for Red River. After the bye, OU hosts UCF and then will be on the road in three of their final five games.

While a nine-game Big 12 schedule can be unforgiving, Oklahoma thankfully will not have to face Baylor, Houston, Kansas State and Texas Tech in its final season in the Big 12. Kansas State and Baylor are the last two Big 12 champions. Houston has already won the Group of Five before. Texas Tech is certainly trending in the right direction under second-year head coach Joey McGuire.

And here is Texas’ final schedule as a member of the Big 12.

• Sept. 2: Rice Owls
• Sept. 9: at Alabama Crimson Tide (Tuscaloosa, AL)
• Sept. 16: Wyoming Cowboys
• Sept. 23: at Baylor Bears (Waco, TX)
• Sept. 30: Kansas Jayhawks
• Oct. 7: Oklahoma Sooners (Dallas, TX)
• Oct. 14: Bye
• Oct. 21: at Houston Cougars (Houston, TX)
• Oct. 28: BYU Cougars
• Nov. 4: Kansas State Wildcats
• Nov. 11: at TCU Horned Frogs (Fort Worth, TX)
• Nov. 18: at Iowa State Cyclones (Ames, IA)
• Nov. 24: Texas Tech Red Raiders

Texas has to play Alabama in the non-conference in Tuscaloosa, so good luck with that. The Longhorns open Big 12 play at Baylor before hosting Kansas the week before Red River. After the bye, the Longhorns will be all about the Cougars with Houston and BYU back-to-back. They will finish with Kansas State at home, at TCU, at Iowa State and then hosting Texas Tech at home.

As with Oklahoma, Texas will not play four conference “foes” in their final season of Big 12 play. The Longhorns avoid Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, UCF and West Virginia. Cincinnati made the College Football Playoff two years ago. Oklahoma State was a yard away from doing it two years ago. UCF has an undefeated season under its best. West Virginia is the worst team in the league…

While Texas is a season ahead with its head coach entering Steve Sarkisian’s third season at the helm, Oklahoma has the far easier pathway to winning the Big 12. There are three reasons for this. One, Oklahoma has the much easier non-conference schedule (yes, it matters). Two, they play all four former Group of Five teams. And three, they do not have to play Baylor or Kansas State.

Oklahoma losing its non-conference home-and-home vs. Georgia is a blessing in disguise here. The Sooners do not have to play Alabama like Texas does in the second part of its two-step with the Tide. A loss to Alabama does not hurt Texas’ chances of winning the Big 12, but it could force the Longhorns to play tight the rest of the way to keep its College Football Playoff dreams alive.

Even if the four new Big 12 teams are all certainly capable of making the leap to the Power Five, they will all experience a period of adjustment in their new league. Two, maybe three of them, could come out of the gates on fire. However, you can bet your bottom dollar that one of the four between BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF will come out flat. Who is it? Oklahoma will find out…

Although Baylor regressed a year ago, the Bears have been one of the better Big 12 programs throughout the College Football Playoff era. Kansas State made a phenomenal hire in getting Chris Klieman to leave North Dakota State to replace the absolute legend that is Bill Snyder. The Bears should be better than a .500 team this season. As for K-State, the Wildcats could repeat this year.

TCU saw first-hand how difficult it is to beat the same team twice to win a conference championship. Oklahoma will avoid two of the better programs in the Big 12 currently on its quest to one last conference championship. As for Texas, the Longhorns’ run through the gauntlet would be incredibly impressive, but we have seen nothing out of this team to think they could navigate it.

For several scheduling reasons, Oklahoma has a much easier path to Arlington than Texas does.

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