THE PLAYERS Championship picks 2023: Expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

THE PLAYERS Championship picks and best bets for the 2023 trip to TPC Sawgrass as we have an outright, Top 10 and more PGA Tour expert picks for golf.

It’s that time of year when the PGA Tour really gets cooking as we head to TPC Sawgrass in Ponta Vedra Beach, FL for THE PLAYERS Championship. We have the highest purse on the PGA Tour at stake this week and a loaded field featuring 43 of the Top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings ready to try and take their piece of the pie. Cameron Smith, the defending champion, won’t be present, though, as he prepares for the next LIV Golf event instead.

Kurt Kitayama is in the field after winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week, edging out our outright pick of Rory McIlroy last week. We still had a good overall week, though, with Viktor Hovland cashing as our Top 10 pick and with the Top 40 parlay of Tyrrell Hatton and Chris Kirk pulling through. That put us up 2.19 units for the week and those players will all tee it up at THE PLAYERS Championship this week.

Jon Rahm is back on the course too but we’re a bit angry at him after he tailed off after a hot start to make our One and Done pick feel very much like a waste. Maybe he’ll hit one in the water on the iconic 17th hole to atone for his sins.

Let’s get it all back, though. Two straight positive weeks with our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets has us in a good spot, so let’s dive into our THE PLAYERS Championship picks for the week and try to find the best bets on the board for TPC Sawgrass.

Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2023 through API: 14-30-1, -1.044 units (0-9 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets | +2.19 units at API)
One-and-Done record in 2023: $1,593,953.22 (Jon Rahm at API, $70,029)

PGA Tour expert picks for THE PLAYERS Championship: Winner, Top 10, One and Done

Top 10 Pick for THE PLAYERS Championship: Max Homa (+220)

Despite the fact that he’s lost strokes putting in his two starts at TPC Sawgrass, Max Homa still finished T13 at THE PLAYERS last year. My belief is that he’s leveled up since then and is one of the truly elite players in the world right now. Homa finished Top 15 last week at the API despite losing nearly three strokes putting for the week. His ball-striking is truly tremendous right now and I think he makes another statement like at the Genesis with a high finish this week in Ponta Vedra.

Pick to Win THE PLAYERS Championship (0.5 Units): Rory McIlroy (+950)

It’s been a bit of a letdown for Rory at THE PLAYERS since his win here in 2019 with a missed cut in 2021 and T33 last year. But the putter has been what cost him in both of those. Now you look at the trends, he’s still playing an elite tee-to-green game right now while barely gaining with the putter at the API and then losing in his two prior starts. I think we’re trending for the McIlroy win at a place he has historically overall performed extremely well in his career. I’m going back-to-back with him as my outright pick, even if the odds remain unenticing in themselves.

One and Done Pick for THE PLAYERS Championship: Rory McIlroy

There’s not much to say. Really wish we had McIlroy last week when we had him as the outright pick but I tried to get too cute with it. No more of that. I love his chances this week to win and, at the very least, contend. With a $25 million purse, I’m using the biggest bullet in the One and Done chamber.

THE PLAYERS Championship picks and best bets

Tyrrell Hatton to finish Top 20 (+160)

This seems pretty simple to get behind given the way that Hatton has been playing. The fiery Englishman has three Top 10 finishes in his last five starts and has been gaining 1.36 strokes tee-to-green over his last 20 rounds while also gaining on the greens. His overall history at THE PLAYERS isn’t stellar but after a T13 at this event last year, I love these odds as a Top 20 play this week.

Top 40 Parlay: Justin Thomas + Viktor Hovland + Rickie Fowler (+271)

It cashed last week, so we’re going back to the well but adding another leg (probably unwisely) onto the Top 40 parlay. Thomas has finished in the Top 35 at TPC Sawgrass in each of the last four years (including a win in 2021) and in has been Top 25 in each of his last five starts. More importantly, he gained 6.11 strokes ball striking last week. Hovland continues to be a menace ball striking with over 9.0 strokes gained last week and finished T9 here last year. As for Fowler, he’s the scary leg here but I love his form. Even losing strokes off the tee in two of the last three starts, he’s still been T31 or better in each of his last four tournaments. His iron play and putting have been found and I love all three players to get this home.

Cameron Young to finish Top 30 (+110)

With that aggressive parlay, I’m playing it a little conservative with this best bet but it feels like plus money is still fantastic value. Young has been T20 and T10 at the Genesis and API, respectively, in his last two starts while gaining more than 7.0 strokes ball striking in each start. The short game has been losing strokes but is now trending up a bit. If he can be average with the flat stick, he might contend to win. However, with a missed cut at THE PLAYERS last week and his cold putter, I still think he can Top 30 with the way he’s flushing it right now.

Longshot pick to win THE PLAYERS Championship: Tom Hoge (+13000)

Last week’s missed cut at the API was the first time since the FedEx St. Jude last summer that Hoge lost strokes on approach. He’s been killing it with his irons and wedges, as you expect. But now he comes to a place where he’s never finished worse than T33 in his last three starts and has gained strokes putting — a big key for him — in three of four career starts. His form isn’t the greatest, but it feels like a potential big bounce-back week for Hoge.

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