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Valspar Championship picks 2023: Expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

By Cody Williams

PALM HARBOR, FLORIDA - MARCH 20: Justin Thomas of the United States prepares to play from the 17th tee during the final round of the Valspar Championship on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club on March 20, 2022 in Palm Harbor, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
PALM HARBOR, FLORIDA - MARCH 20: Justin Thomas of the United States prepares to play from the 17th tee during the final round of the Valspar Championship on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club on March 20, 2022 in Palm Harbor, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) /
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Valspar Championship picks and best bets for the 2023 trip to the Copperhead Course as we have an outright, Top 10 and more PGA Tour expert picks for golf.

As we head into our Valspar Championship picks for this week with the trip to the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Golf Resort on the docket, we have some great news with our PGA Tour expert picks. Despite missing wildly with Rory McIlroy as the favorite we backed, we are officially in the green for 2023 with our best bets. Let’s keep it moving!

We were just a Justin Thomas Top 40 away from having a monster week but cashing on a Max Homa Top 10 and Tyrrell Hatton Top 20 were enough to give us a strong week that had these bets up over a unit for THE PLAYERS Championship. McIlroy killed us as our outright — we are ice cold in this department — and even more so as a One and Done pick as he missed the cut.

It’s now a much weaker field for the Copperhead Course this week but we’ll be trying to stay in the green as we make our Valspar Championship picks and run through our best bets for this week’s PGA Tour expert picks.

Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Odds will be updated when made available. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2023 through THE PLAYERS: 16-33-1, +0.256 units (0-10 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets | +1.3 units at THE PLAYERS)
One-and-Done record in 2023: $1,593,953.22 (Rory McIlroy at THE PLAYERS, $0)

PGA Tour expert picks for Valspar Championship: Winner, Top 10, One and Done

Top 10 Pick for the Valspar Championship: Tommy Fleetwood (+310)

Whenever we see Tommy Fleetwood make legitimate noise in a tournament, you can see it coming with his ball striking. So color me intrigued that the Englishman has increased his strokes gained ball striking in each of his last four tournaments, including gaining almost 5.0 strokes at THE PLAYERS. Now with a weak field at the Valspar, I think the trend continues and we see Fleetwood end Sunday on the first page of the leaderboard.

Pick to Win the Valspar Championship (0.5 Units): Adam Hadwin (+2800)

Things have been a bit up-and-down for Hadwin this season as evidenced by two Top 13 finishes bookending a missed cut and T66 in his last four starts. With that said, this is a course that suits his game with accuracy and strong approach play. It’s not hard to see why he has a win and two additional Top 12 finishes at the Valspar to his credit. I’m backing him on a course that suits his game to take advantage of a weaker field and ultimately get the victory.

One and Done Pick for Valspar Championship: Adam Hadwin

For all of the reasons already mentioned, Hadwin is the One and Done pick this week. The combination of his game, his form in some recent events, and his history at the Valspar have me all over him in a week where I don’t want to burn a big name and end up with another Rory $0 for my total this year.

Valspar Championship picks and best bets

Stephan Jaeger to finish Top 20 (+210)

Over his last three starts we’ve seen Stephan Jaeger put up a T40, T14 and T44 — and that’s while losing 0.68 strokes putting! He’s gaining strokes across the board everywhere else and his approach play has been his strength. This play very much comes down to him being accurate with the driver but, if he clubs down and plays smart, his game is in a spot where he should pop well at the Valspar.

Pierceson Coody to finish Top 40 (+145)

We’re starting to see Pierceson Coody on the PGA Tour a bit more now and, while it has definitely been erratic, the upside is so clearly evident with him. He finished T14 at the API and has shown some tremendous ball striking prowess when he’s been in fields. If he can keep the ball in the fairway and show a modicum of consistency from day to day, he has the talent to legitimately contend. For a Top 40, that feels relatively conservative in this field.

Luke Donald to finish Top 40 (+250)

I’m going ahead and spoiling my longshot pick this week because I want to bet Luke Donald to finish in the Top 40 this week. Given how far down he is the outright board, the odds are going to be enticing for a player who has two Top 40s in his last three starts in addition two a pair of Top 16 finishes at the Valspar in his last three trips. He’s gaining nearly a stroke on approach in his last 12 rounds and I think he pops up in the Top 40 again in this week’s field.

Longshot pick to win the Valspar Championship: Luke Donald (+19000)

Again, we’re not talking about an elevated event, so my longshot is way down the board based on approach metrics and course history. Donald hasn’t been an ace as of late by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s shown some good signs and is coming to a place where, even in his recent relatively poor form, he’s still managed to finish decently. I like that in a longshot play at Innisbrook.

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