WGC-Dell Match Play bracket predictions 2023: Expert picks for group winners, champion

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In the spirit of March, it’s time to make WGC-Dell Match Play bracket predictions for the 2023 tournament, picking group winners, a champion and more.

The WGC-Dell Match Play bracket is now set. We’re off to Austin Country Club with 64 of the best players on the PGA Tour facing off in this unique format for the week. And it’s going to be quite a good time as we go from 64 golfers all the way down to one.

Who is going to win, though? Who is going to take advantage of the week when stroke play isn’t the name of the game?

You can obviously check out my picks and best bets for the WGC-Dell Match Play this week to highlight where I’m most confident. My good friend Iain MacMillan also has his picks up for BetSided this week as well.

But if you’re in a pool, you’re looking for more picks. You’re looking for full WGC-Dell Match Play bracket predictions that goes through every group, every round and every match to pick a winner. We’ve got you covered with those picks here.

Going round-by-round, let’s fill out this Match Play bracket.

Table of Contents

WGC-Dell Match Play bracket predictions – Group Stages

Group 1: Scottie Scheffler defeats Tom Kim, Alex Noren, Davis Riley

Scheffler has been close to unbeatable in this format, posting a Match Play record of 11-3-2 in his career to this point. Alex Noren does scare me a bit with a stellar record of his own, but he’s not in form. Given the experience of Kim and Riley, the defending champ should move on.

Group 2: Tommy Fleetwood defeats Sungjae Im, J.T. Poston, Maverick McNealy

I’ve not been shy about fading Sungjae Im recently because I don’t have faith in his irons as he’s barely gaining weighted strokes (strokes gained adjusted by field strength) in one of the strengths of his game over the last 16 rounds. Fleetwood continues to impress and has a solid record in this format (13-11-3) while Im is just 4-4. Poston and McNealy feel like non-factors in my estimation.

Group 3: Collin Morikawa defeats Jason Day, Adam Svensson, Victor Perez

Yes, Morikawa has a perfectly even 3-3-3 match play record for his career. Yes, Jason Day is trending and has been a terrific player in this format historically (25-16 record). However, Morikawa is trending and should fit this event beautifully. Gaining 1.3 weighted strokes on approach over his last 16 rounds and finding a groove with the putter, I’m big on Morikawa this week to emerge from this group of death (and beyond).

Group 4: Viktor Hovland defeats Chris Kirk, Si Woo Kim, Matt Kuchar

Over his last 16 rounds, Hovland is gaining 1.9 weighted strokes with his ball striking. The guy is just pasting the ball. Chris Kirk has been trending and has a recent win while Kuchar is a strong historical match play competitor. But Hovland has a solid record (3-3-1) and is playing too well to not take in this event.

Group 5: Kevin Kisner defeats Max Homa, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Suh

Kisner is the match play wizard with a ridiculous 22-8-2 record in this format. Yes, his form hasn’t been great overall, especially compared to Max Homa. But he thrives in this environment and is grouped with guys who have only been average in that capacity. I think the veteran experience pulls through in Group 5.

Group 6: Taylor Montgomery defeats Jordan Spieth, Shane Lowry, Mackenzie Hughes

This is very much a gut-feel pick based only on putting. There is nothing more frustrating in match play than a player like Taylor Montgomery who has been hot and staying that way, dropping bombs on the green to put pressure on opponents. With Spieth’s erratic style (and shockingly mediocre match play record at 16-15-4), I’m taking Montgomery to pull off an upset in this group.

Group 7: Seamus Power defeats Sam Burns, Adam Scott, Adam Hadwin

My word, this group does not inspire me in any way. Sam Burns popped slightly at the Valspar but his game has been struggling. Adam Scott has been middling and Adam Hadwin collapsed in the second round last week. That leaves Seamus Power, who advanced out of the group stage last year. So why not pick him to do it again.

Group 8: Patrick Cantlay defeats Brian Harman, K.H. Lee, Nick Taylor

Patrick Cantlay is by far the best golfer, by far the most in form, and by far the best match play competitor in this group. This is the easiest pick on the board.

Group 9: Jon Rahm defeats Billy Horschel, Keith Mitchell, Rickie Fowler

Billy Horschel has been a terrific match play veteran in his career (13-8-2), but his form has been horrendous, particularly with ball-striking. I do worry about Jon Rahm slightly given that his driving numbers have tapered off lately. But after a WD and time to recuperate, I think he comes back and emerges from what should be a competitive group.

Group 10: Corey Conners defeats Cameron Young, Sepp Straka, Davis Thompson

Cameron Young just isn’t set up for match play golf with his strengths and shortcomings. Meanwhile, Straka and Thompson have little experience and not the best overall form. Then you have Conners, who has a 6-5 overall record in match play and has been sneakily striking the ball quite well. I like for him to come out and win the group.

Group 11: Adrian Meronk defeats Tony Finau, Kurt Kitayama, Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Tony Finau should be a good match play performer, but he’s just average (7-7-2). Then you have Kitayama and Meronk with little experience and Bezuidenhout at 1-5-1 for his career. I’m going with a sleeper in Meronk, who has been playing really well with a balanced game that emphasizes his ball striking.

Group 12: Andrew Putnam defeats Will Zalatoris, Ryan Fox, Harris English

I really want to trust Zalatoris here but the putter terrifies me in this format. Harris English in his current form is a non-starter, which leaves a coin flip with the limited (or lack of) experience for Putnam and Fox. I’m taking the slightly more experienced Putnam to pull the upset in Group 12.

Group 13: Xander Schauffele defeats Tom Hoge, Aaron Wise, Cam Davis

My friend Iain MacMillan likes Tom Hoge this week, but I can’t trust him with how cold his short game can get, even if he’s a ball striker. Schauffele is a strong match play veteran (7-5-3) and is also in the best form in this group. I think he comes out on top.

Group 14: Min Woo Lee defeats Matt Fitzpatrick, Sahith Theegala, J.J. Spaun

Another dark horse pick, but Min Woo Lee is just playing the best in this group right now as most metrics leave something to be desired. Lee is gaining with his ball striking and putter over the last 16 rounds, something no one else in the group is doing. I’m riding that for another sleeper win.

Group 15: Tyrrell Hatton defeats Russell Henley, Lucas Herbert, Ben Griffin

We’ve seen Tyrrell Hatton advance out of his group in three of his last four starts in this event. Now he’s in a group with players who, outside of Griffin, haven’t been in form while the Englishman is playing elite golf. He should come out of this group comfortably.

Group 16: Rory McIlroy defeats Keegan Bradley, Denny McCarthy, Scott Stallings

Given his form, you might think Keegan Bradley could be live for the upset — McCarthy and Stallings look like non-factors given experience and form. But Bradley has a horrendous match play history at 1-12-6 and hasn’t won a match since 2012. Given Rory’s overall form and his 34-18-4 match play record, I have to take him here.

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