WGC-Dell Match Play picks 2023: Expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

WGC-Dell Match Play picks and best bets for the 2023 trip to Austin as we have a winner, group winners, and more PGA Tour expert picks for golf.

For one final ride, it’s off to Austin Country Club for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event this week. All signs point to this being the last match play event for the foreseeable future on the PGA Tour, so this week will have a special feel. Naturally, that means we need to lock in with our WGC-Dell Match Play picks to try and find this year’s Scottie Scheffler.

Last week at the Valspar felt so close to being great. We did cash Tommy Fleetwood for a Top 10 at +310 in our PGA Tour expert picks, but that was the only cash. Adam Hadwin followed up a good Thursday with a disastrous Friday to miss the cut. Stephan Jaeger barely missed our Top 20 with a bad Sunday round, and then Luke Donald and Pierceson Coody were a bit too ambitious. That put us down 0.4 units for the week, but it’s not too bad overall.

Obviously, the WGC-Dell Match Play picks offer a bit of a different feel given the format of group play going into a bracket. So instead of our normal type of plays, we’ll be looking at an outright winner, group winners, match winners, and a Final Four pick to get us going in our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets.

Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2023 through Valspar: 17-37-1, -0.144 units (0-11 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets | -0.4 units at Valspar)
One-and-Done record in 2023: $1,593,953.22 (Adam Hadwin at Valspar, $0)

PGA Tour expert picks for WGC-Dell Match Play: Winner, Group Winner, Top 4

Group Winner Lock for WGC-Dell Match Play: Tyrrell Hatton – Group 14 (+145)

Despite a 12-10-2 overall match play record in his career, Tyrrell Hatton has a decent feel for Austin Country Club. He’s advanced out of the group stage in three of the last four years — and now he’s playing some of the best golf of his career, gaining 1.61 strokes with ball striking over the last 20 rounds. As long as he keeps his cool, his recent form and his success at this event lead me to believe he should roll past a weak group of Ben Griffin, Lucas Herbert and Russell Henley to advance comfortably.

Final Four pick for WGC-Dell Match Play: Jon Rahm (+300, DraftKings)

It’s weird to remember that it was Brooks Koepka who eliminated Jon Rahm at this event last year, but it speaks to Rahm’s favor that he has been good enough to need 19 holes to bow out last year and have a 13-8-1 match play record overall in his career. Though the driver has been worrisome, it’s largely been an accuracy problem for him. That’s not a massive issue in this event and I like for him to come back after a short break and really play well. Given his match play killer instinct as well, getting these odds to just make the semifinal is quite enticing.

Pick to Win WGC-Dell Match Play (0.5 units): Collin Morikawa (+2000)

Collin Morikawa has played at this event twice. He failed to advance in 2021, then advanced and immediately lost the next match last year. His match play record isn’t much to write home about at just 2-3-1 for his career. But the fact of the matter is that his approach play has been on fire recently, gaining 1.1 strokes on approach over his last 10 rounds. I think he comes out firing darts and putting pressure on his opponents in these matches all week long, thus pushing him to a victory.

WGC-Dell Match Play picks and best bets

Viktor Hovland to win Group 8 (+195)

Viktor Hovland might not have a sparkling overall match play record at just 3-3-1 for his young career. But he was close to advancing last year but lost on the 18th hole to Will Zalatoris. Now he’s grouped an out-of-form Matt Kuchar and the erratic Si Woo Kim. Yes, Chris Kirk has been hot and sneakily has a 6-4 match play record for his career. But I’m willing to bet on Hovland, who has been heating up in his own right, to put pressure on these guys and for his talent to win out in this group.

Kevin Kisner to win Group 5 (+500)

We’re getting a bit aggressive here as Kevin Kisner is the second-lowest-ranked player in this group with Max Homa, Justin Suh and Hideki Matsuyama. But we know that Kisner is a match play savant who was in the final against Scottie Scheffler last year. Contrasting that is the inexperience of Suh, the relative inexperience and middling success (3-3 match play record) of Homa, and Matsuyama not being at the top of his game. Give me Kiz to come out and do his thing to advance out of the group stage.

Keith Mitchell over Billy Horschel, Match 1 on Wednesday (+110)

Yes, I’m well aware that Billy Horschel is a past winner of this event. But when you look how he’s been playing of late in comparison to Keith Mitchell, there’s absolutely no way I can back Horschel in this match. Over his last 20 rounds, Billy Ho is losing 0.81 strokes with his ball striking and is coming to a course where that’s crucial. He’s also missed three of his last four cuts. Mitchell is striking the ball extremely well with some solid finishes in big events. Give me him to pull out the win in the first round of matches.

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