Final Four predictions: Who’s going to win the 2023 NCAA Tournament?

An unconventional Final Four is set to take the court in Houston this weekend. Who will cut down the nets on Monday night and win the NCAA Tournament?

There have been crazy NCAA Tournaments before but nothing has topped the 2023 edition of March Madness in terms of weirdness. A bloodbath of top seeds has left us with a very unconventional Final Four featuring 4-seed UConn as the presumptive favorite, a pair of 5-seeds in Miami and San Diego State, and 9-seed Florida Atlantic as the dark horse no one saw coming prior to the season.

Just three games separate us from the end of this season and the start of the long offseason, but who will win in Houston?

Let’s predict each contest that is still left to be played in the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

2023 NCAA Tournament: Final Four Predictions

9 Florida Atlantic vs. 5 San Diego State

These two programs are both making their Final Four debuts, meaning we have a guaranteed mid-major playing for their first shot at a national championship on Monday night. While CBS likely isn’t thrilled at that prospect in terms of television ratings, these two teams both earned the right to be on this stage.

This contest figures to be a low-scoring game since San Diego State has the most efficient defense left in the bracket, ranking fourth in KenPom’s metrics, and no opponent has scored more than 64 points against them in the NCAA Tournament. That latter figure is particularly impressive since the Aztecs have dealt with three high-powered offenses in Charleston, Alabama and Creighton during their March Madness run.

Florida Atlantic has shown the ability to win a variety of games, including a shootout over Kansas State in the Elite Eight and a rugged defensive battle against Tennessee in the Sweet 16. That game against the Volunteers will prove invaluable for the Owls, who make just enough plays to outlast San Diego State and get to the title game.

Pick: Florida Atlantic

5 Miami vs. 4 Connecticut

While the opener of the Final Four figures to be a defensive rock fight, the nightcap should feature plenty of offense. Miami and Connecticut possess two of KenPom’s five most efficient offenses, which means they should be lighting up the scoreboard on Saturday night.

Many will be quick to discount the Hurricanes given how dominant UConn has looked in March Madness but that would be a mistake since Jim Larranaga is one of the best tournament coaches today. Miami will look to push the tempo on offense in order to wear out the Huskies’ bigger players, which should lead to a close game.

Dan Hurley’s team has yet to play a close game in March but their regular season battles in the Big East should have them prepared to withstand a close contest. The Hurricanes will throw everything they can handle at UConn but the Huskies survive.

Prediction: Connecticut

2023 NCAA Tournament: National Championship Prediction

9 Florida Atlantic vs. 4 Connecticut

This championship matchup feels a bit reminiscent of the 2011 title game, when Butler made its second consecutive run to the title game. Their opponent that night was Connecticut, which was the high seed in another wacky Final Four and had survived a white knuckler against Kentucky to get to the national championship game.

That UConn-Butler matchup was an ugly one between future conference rivals as the Huskies shut down the Bulldogs on their way to a 53-41 triumph, giving Jim Calhoun his third and final title. The basketball may be a bit better this time around but history should repeat in terms of the result.

There isn’t a more talented team left in the field than UConn, which is playing its best basketball at the most important time of the year. Florida Atlantic’s magical run comes to an end as the Huskies win their fifth NCAA Tournament.

Pick: Connecticut

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