Nylon Calculus: Reviewing preseason predictions for the Western Conference

Prediction: Golden State Warriors finish in the top 10 defensively and allow the fewest attempts at the rim for a second straight season

The Warriors are as perplexing a team as has existed in the modern NBA. When they have it rolling, they look like the dynastic team that has dominated the NBA for a near decade. But there are nights, particularly on the road, where they haven’t looked anything but dominant.

Since their ability to win games this season has been determined by whether it was located at Chase Center or not, let’s look at their defensive home-road splits. At home, the Warriors are the third-best defense, allowing opponents a mere 1.08 points per possession, according to Cleaning the Glass. That number jumps by 0.12 points per possession on the road, the third-worst road defense in the entire NBA. No matter how well the Warriors play defensively at home, the Warriors aren’t qualifying as a top-10 defense this season.

Overall, they are the stingiest rim defense in the league, affording opponents these looks on just 25 percent of possessions. That figure only dips to 32 percent on the road, good for the sixth-lowest rim frequency among all teams, per Cleaning the Glass. The big difference between their home and road difference is the surge in allowed 3-point attempts on the road, where opponents are shooting 40 percent on such attempts. It could be that the Warriors are just unlucky in these situations, which may regress in the postseason.

Regardless, if the Warriors are still limiting opponent shots at the rim and at full strength, they’re tough competition when the lights are shining brightest.

Grade: B+

Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers finish as one of the league’s worst offenses

After nearly a third of the season, I felt confident to make this prediction based on the Clippers’ early season offense, and it turned out to be correct.

The Clippers were the 22nd-best offense this season, shot 55 percent from the field as a team, and never truly rebounded from their early season slump. Part of this prediction centered around their lack of availability, mainly from their two offensive engines, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Leonard missed the start of the season, and George dealt with minor injuries, including his current knee issue for which he has no timetable for return.

As a team, they were average or worse in shot-making, taking care of the ball, and securing offensive rebounds. Their only salvation came from maximizing trips to the free-throw line, largely driven by their starting group. They’ve been able to maintain this strength without George, but how far it can take them in the postseason remains to be seen.

Grade: A

Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers finish with a neutral point differential

Predicting mediocrity isn’t fun, but I felt so confident about this one. The liveliest debate in the NBA this season has surrounded the Lakers’ chances of competing for a championship, they are the answer to the question “What would happen if you put two elite players around a neutral supporting cast?”

To be fair, the Lakers have played better since they overhauled their roster at the trade deadline, and they have legitimate threats aside from Anthony Davis and LeBron James, Austin Reaves being the most consistent.

But, this team as a whole is largely trying to stay afloat. They finished the season with a +0.4 point differential, which, while positive, doesn’t necessarily substantiate their desire to win another championship. That’s not to say it isn’t possible, we’ve seen LeBron James accomplish nearly every feat throughout his storied career. I just wouldn’t bet on it.

Grade: A-

Prediction: Phoenix Suns finish as a top-5 offense and defense

The love for this Suns team was a little too hot, no pun intended. While there was reason to be optimistic about their capability early on in the season, the recent addition of Durant certainly makes them a threat capable of mobilizing as a top-5 postseason offense and defense.

The Suns finished the regular season as the 17th-best offense and 9th-ranked defense, falling short of my lofty expectations. They are elite at grabbing offensive rebounds, and forcing opponents into low-percentage shots and turnovers. They struggle with the free-throw battle and foul more than any other team, per Cleaning the Glass.

Since the addition of Durant, in an incredibly small sample size of 269 non-garbage minutes, the Suns have made the transition to an elite defensive team. Their improvements have come in limiting extra opportunities at the free-throw line and on the glass, simpler ameliorations that can result in an outsized improvement overall. Of course, Durant’s addition has also led to easier shots on the offensive end and more free-throw opportunities for the Suns, as well.

One area of note: the Suns become a much worse offensive rebounding team in Durant’s minutes, which may or may not be a real trend given the limited minutes he’s played. It’s worth monitoring how Deandre Ayton and Durant coexist, but I wouldn’t have any severe concerns if I were the Suns.

Grade: F

Prediction: Sacramento Kings finish as a top-10 offense and top-10 in 3-point efficiency

How about instead of a top-10 offense they finish as one of the greatest regular-season offensive teams in league history!

The Kings dominated on that end of the ball all season long, and showed a level of consistency that few teams in the Western Conference have matched so far this season. Not only did they finish as the league’s best offense, but they were the 13th-best outside shooting team, matching the NBA average efficiency of 37 percent.

Stylistically, how did they catapult their offense from 25th to first in just one season? They made some simple fixes, like cleaning up turnovers and putting a greater emphasis on getting to the free-throw line. But, overall, the Kings got better because they began making tough shots. They shot nearly 47 percent this season on mid-range attempts, ranking as the second-best mid-range offense, per Cleaning the Glass. They also converted on more shots at the rim, a nod to the extensive roster changes they’ve made over the past fourteen months.

Offensively, Sacramento has the chops to make serious noise in the postseason. But a first-round matchup with the Warriors requires that they commit defensively as well. It will be worth watching to see how they perform on both ends of the floor.

Grade: C