Nylon Calculus: Reviewing preseason predictions for the Eastern Conference

Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers take at least 40 percent of their shot attempts at the rim and finish with a top-15 offense league-wide

The thinking behind this prediction is that Donovan Mitchell’s pick-and-roll creation would be a dynamic pairing with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen as lob threats. However, with Mitchell on the floor, the Cavs took fewer attempts at the rim, and one of the highest rates of long jump shots among all lineups, per Cleaning the Glass.

Garland, not Mitchell, revved the Cavaliers’ interior attack. Minutes with Garland resulted in 3 percent more attempts from the midrange and 5 percent fewer attempts from 3-point range, one of the highest disparities among all guards, per Cleaning the Glass. Given that the ball is in Mitchell’s hands — his 32 percent usage rate is the highest among all guards — more than it is in Garland’s, this trend naturally played out for Cleveland as a whole.

The Cavs took a mere 35 percent of their shots at the rim, which is below the league average. Given that the Cavaliers scored at a top-10 efficiency at the rim, there may be more emphasis to seek out these attempts in the postseason.

Grade: C

Prediction: Chicago Bulls win 40-43 games and are between the 12th and 15th-best offense and 18th and 22nd-best defense in the league.

The Bulls were (and frankly, are) the most difficult team to predict this season. Would it be surprising if they were a playoff team? Nope. Were it all to crash and burn, would we be dumbfounded? Not necessarily.

Let’s split this triple prediction into pieces and dissect them one at a time. Starting with their record, the Bulls finished at 40-42, right at the cusp of where the prediction set. But, they lost more games than the numbers would suggest. Given the spread between their offensive and defensive efficiency compared to other teams across the league, the Bulls should have won four more games than they did, the highest margin among all teams, per Cleaning the Glass. Was Chicago unlucky this season? Or just unable to finish close games?

Here is where things get murkier. Chicago ranked as the 24th-best offense and fifth-best defense in the league this season, an incredible flip from their profile last season as the 14th-best offense and 22nd-ranked defense. Defensive efficiency league-wide has dipped by more than 2 points per 100 possessions, and because the Bulls improved defensively by 1.5 points per possession their relative ranking skyrocketed.

Their defensive fundamentals are largely unchanged from last year, except they force a turnover more per game than they did a season ago. The Bulls’ secondary lineup, mainly Alex Caruso and Andre Drummond, is responsible for these extra takeaways.

Offensively, the same trend holds. The Bulls shot as efficiently, grabbed just as many offensive rebounds, and went to the free-throw line at a similar rate as last season. But, they turned the ball over on one percent more of their possessions, which defined their relative offensive regression.

Chicago’s statistical profile highlights how much the balance between offense and defense has shifted across the NBA this season, and it will be interesting to see if this trend holds up in the postseason.

Grade: D

Prediction: Detroit Pistons are a top-20 offense league-wide

Another big miss on an overly-optimistic prediction for a young team.

The Pistons are the league’s 29th-best offense, scoring a measly 1.1 points per possession. Injuries certainly played a part in the demise of the team (as did their desire to land a high draft pick this summer). But even with the loss of Cade Cunningham and most of the core rotation being sidelined since the All-Star break, this prediction missed the growth of Detroit’s young players.

Killian Hayes has remained an inefficient creator with some defensive chops. Saddiq Bey’s outside shooting has flatlined since his intriguing rookie season (now a member of the Hawks), and Jaden Ivey, while promising, is still experiencing normal rookie offensive growing pains.

In my preview, I said that these Pistons were a year away from becoming a play-in contender. Now I believe they’re a year away from being a year away.

Grade: D

Prediction: Indiana Pacers become a bottom-10 offense and remain a bottom-10 defense in the league

This one barely hit on offense and was a sure-fire hit on the defensive end. The Pacers were below league average in seven of the eight “Four Factors” on both sides of the ball, only forcing an above-average number of opponent turnovers.

And like their play on the court this season, Indiana is in a little bit of limbo as a franchise. They have some young talent with promise, have signed Myles Turner to an appropriate extension, and should retain another high draft pick this summer. While the individual aspects are all positive, there isn’t a clear projection on how it will all coalesce into a winning basketball team anytime soon. The Pacers have found opportunities in the trade market, and maybe they’ll do so again in the coming future.

If not, I don’t expect a substantial improvement next season.

Grade: A-

Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks finish third in the East but win the 2023 NBA championship

The championship portion of this prediction is to be determined, but I was very wrong about how much this team would value the regular season.

If it were known in the preseason that Khris Middleton would miss 42 games, I would have been very confident that the Bucks would finish third or worse in the Eastern Conference standings. This pick was made assuming reasonable health for Milwaukee. Finishing as the one seed is a testament to Giannis Antetokounmpo’s greatness and why he’s unlike most superstars — his relentlessness and durability cannot be understated in the context of his career.

Can the Bucks win a championship with a dominant defense and a league-average offense? In their championship season, they were the seventh and tenth-best offense and defense, respectively, before ramping up to the third-best defense and tenth-best offense (of twenty teams). If this profile is any indication, Milwaukee has a historical case to be the championship favorite today.

Grade: C