2025 NBA Mock Draft: Final lottery sim sends Cooper Flagg to unexpected contender

The early entry deadline for the 2025 NBA Draft passed on April 26, but players have until June 15 to officially withdraw their names from the proceedings.

Only 106 non-international players applied as early entrants, the lowest number since 2015. This is a direct result of NIL's increasing prominence in college basketball: A lot of underclassmen can make as much, if not more money returning to school than going pro. Even players with strong first-round potential, such as Iowa commit Bennett Stirtz or Texas Tech returneJT Toppin, opted for another season of college basketball instead of beginning their NBA careers.

This has vast implications for the 2025 NBA Draft, not to mention the long-term future of college basketball. It's great in the sense that more schools will be able to retain talent, which means the quality of competition is elevated come March Madness. It's less great for NBA teams, who will be tasked with picking more seniors and less-established prospects in the second round. The depth of this year's second round — and probably next year's, and every year moving forward — is going to suffer compared to what has been the accepted norm for so long.

Even some prospects who put their names in the early entrants pool, such as projected first-round pick Yaxel Lendeborg of UAB, are candidates to drop out and play another season in college. Lendeborg has committed his services to Michigan, should he withdraw. St. John's star RJ Luis Jr. will test the NBA Draft waters, but he's also a top target in the transfer portal, where he will get paid handsomely by a top program. Pittsburgh's Jaland Lowe has committed to Kentucky, which positions him as a more likely draft pick in 2026. The list goes on.

So, with the landscape shifting and the NBA Draft Lottery on the horizon (May 12!), let's simulate the draft order one last time. The Tankathon gods delivered us one heck of an outcome.

2025 NBA Mock Draft: Final Lottery Simulation

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Cooper Flagg lands with Rockets in absolute nightmare scenario for Suns

The Phoenix Suns missed the playoffs with the most expensive roster in NBA history. Phoenix has essentially given away control of its next six first-round picks in exchange for a shallow, far-too-old roster with absolutely zero path to contention. Now, their downfall begins.

Unless Phoenix trades either Kevin Durant or Devin Booker to Houston to regain control of its own picks, the Rockets will have a non-zero chance to move up in the lottery and add a serious game-changer. One could easily envision Houston waiting until after the lottery to even entertain a trade with Phoenix, just on the off chance something like this happens.

Meanwhile, this is a great outcome for Flagg, who joins a deep, well-balanced contender on day one. The Rockets play a physical brand of defense, which Flagg can supplement, and he gives them a much-needed boost in terms of half0court offense. His playmaking, three-level scoring and strong connective instincts should make him one of the best players on a potential top-2 seed right out of the gate.

76ers land the NBA Draft's biggest sleeper in Collin Murray-Boyles

Murray-Boyles is the fourth-ranked prospect on the FanSided big board and he deserves more recognition in a deep lottery pool. South Carolina was a bad team in college basketball's deepest conference, so it was easy for fans to overlook Murray-Boyles during the regular season. NBA teams should not make that same mistake, though.

A 19-year-old sophomore, Murray-Boyles improved across the board in his second collegiate season. He's still not much of a shooter, but he at least made the effort (1.1 attempts per game from deep), and his touch around the basket is a positive indicator. The lack of 3-point success will be the hangup for a lot of front offices, but Murray-Boyles falls into the "jump shot away from stardom" category, and that's always a smart gamble.

At 6-foot-7 and 231 pounds, Murray-Boyles is a freakishly athletic and physical defender. He can guard 1-through-5 effectively, chasing guards on the perimeter just as easily as his walls off taller bigs in the paint. Murray-Boyles has magnetic hands, with a strong nose for the basketball and a motor that never ceases. Offensively, there is immense potential tied to his balletic footwork, sharp passing and a diverse face-up repertoire.

The Philadelphia 76ers are a smart, analytics-driven front office, and Murray-Boyles should light up all their models. He also gives them a much-needed source of physicality in the frontcourt next to Joel Embiid, with plenty of untapped potential for a team wondering what exactly comes next.

Nets get point guard of the future in Oklahoma's Jeremiah Fears

Fears has generated a lot of buzz in NBA circles at the onset of the pre-draft process, per ESPN's Jonathan Givony. The Oklahoma freshman was up and down in his lone collegiate season, but he was easily the best player on a top-9 seed in the NCAA Tournament, reeling off several impressive victories in the all-time stacked SEC.

Fears has a clear path to stardom with his size, quickness and forcefulness. While not overly strong, Fears has the twitchy handles and elite first step to generate consistent advantages with his handle. Around the rim, he's unafraid to absorb contact and finish among the trees, which leads to frequent trips to the free throw line.

He needs to up his efficiency and improve his defensive profile dramatically, but Fears is still 18 years old with all the tools necessary to become a heliocentric star creator at the next level. For a Brooklyn Nets team in the early stages of its rebuild, this is a dream outcome. His final destination will depend on how the lottery board falls, but Brooklyn may end up being Fears' floor on draft night.

Noa Essengue is a dream target for the Blazers — and a name more folks should know

While the 2025 NBA Draft lacks the strong international flavor of recent rookie classes, there are still several overseas prospects worth your attention. Perhaps the best is French wing Essengue, who continues to produce at a high clip for Ratiopharm Ulm in Germany. He's impacting winning for a top pro club at 18 years old, just three days older than Flagg.

Essengue is a quiet star in the making. He hasn't received the same spotlight as other potential top-10 picks, but it's all right on the surface for those with eyes to see. He's an effortlessly fluid athlete at 6-foot-10, attacking the lane with long strides and showcasing impressive dexterity on finishes at the rim. Essengue still needs to tighten his handle and improve his consistency from 3-point range, but it's difficult to find athletes with his size, coordination and mobility. It translates just as well on the defensive end, where he'd make for a fearsome long-term frontcourt partner next to Donovan Clingan.

Even without much polish, Essengue seems to produce at a high level through sheer force of will. He processes the game quickly, scores on backdoor cuts, lobs and out in transition, and he's a game-wrecker when locked in defensively. As the skill catches up to his immense physical gifts and high feel, Essengue could emerge as a top-five player from this class. This is a huge W for the Portland Trail Blazers.

Oklahoma City gambles on Egor Demin with an assist from the Heat

The Miami Heat's first-round pick belongs to the Oklahoma City Thunder, but it was top-14 protected. Essentially, had Miami quietly slipped out of the playoffs and accepted their fate post-Jimmy Butler, the Heat would be picking twice in the first round — with an outside chance to land Flagg or another top talent in the lottery.

Instead, Miami scrapped its way through the Play-In Tournament, only to get obliterated in four games by the top-seeded Cavaliers. So, now things feel especially hopeless, and Miami does not have a lottery pick to help it cope. The Thunder will select 15th and 24th, with a chance to claim Philadelphia's lottery pick if it falls outside the top six. Not too shabby for a 68-win team with the largest positive point differential in NBA history.

OKC still has not debuted its 2024 lottery pick, Nikola Topić, who spent this season recovering from a torn ACL. He figures to command backup point guard minutes behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander next season. In this instance, the Thunder once again prioritize the intersection of size and skill, springing for BYU's Egor Demin.

The 6-foot-8 Russian "point guard" was integral to the Cougars' Sweet 16 run. While Demin's lack of scoring was a major issue at times, he's one of the brightest passers in the draft, with a strong rim pressure rate and enough defensive upside to bank on. OKC can afford to take swings, and Demin fits their offensive M.O. perfectly.

Additional NBA Mock Draft notes

• Walter Clayton Jr. was born 90 minutes from Orlando and was the star of Florida's national championship run. He feels like an easy home-run pick for a Magic team in need of shooting dynamism on the perimeter.
• Kasparas Jakučonis dealt with turnover issues late in the campaign, but the Illinois point guard's 6-foot-6 size, tremendous basketball IQ and elite shot-making flourishes should compel a Mavericks front office looking to paper over Luka Dončić's void.
• With Myles Turner's future uncertain, Indiana springs for 18-year-old French big man Joan Beringer. He's one of the best shot-blockers in the Adriatic League and a proficient lob threat, a perfect complement to Tyrese Haliburton. He's also on a meteoric rise, having only begun playing basketball three years ago.
• Chinese 7-footer Hansen Yang has been flirting with the NBA Draft for a while, but he's finally set to commit in 2025. Chicago scoops him up in the second round, adding a traditional post scorer with excellent passing feel and a 33.3 percent success rate from 3-point range.