After months of infuriating negotiations, the Toronto Blue Jays finally did it. They finally came to terms on an extension with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., signing him to a deal that will likely cover the remainder of his playing career.
Was it an overpay? Sure. Guerrero's $500 million guarantee is the second-largest in MLB history, behind only Juan Soto's $750 million in his deal with the New York Mets. With that being said, though, with where the Jays are as a franchise, this deal had to get done.
With Guerrero's deal officially set to kick in at the start of the 2026 campaign, there's a good chance that Toronto's roster will have a new look as a result. It's hard to envision any of these three players being back with the team next season.
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3. Jacob Barnes might not even survive this season with the Blue Jays
While Ross Atkins deserves credit for getting the Guerrero deal done, he has made a slew of questionable moves while running the ship in Toronto. One head-scratching decision he made came this past offseason when he elected to not only bring Jacob Barnes back for a second tour of duty with the Blue Jays, but start him in their Opening Day bullpen.
Barnes had a 6.30 ERA in 10 appearances for the Blue Jays back in 2021 and entered this season with a 4.68 ERA in 328 MLB outings spanning across parts of nine seasons. Unsurprisingly, Barnes has struggled with the Jays to begin this season, allowing four runs in four innings of work thus far. He has surrendered two runs in two of his three outings.
For the Jays to be successful in Guerrero's tenure with the franchise, their bullpen is simply going to have to be better. For that to be the case, the Jays cannot roster a pitcher who has proven not to be MLB-caliber like Barnes. Chances are, the Jays will let him go after this season, if not sooner.
2. Max Scherzer was unlikely to be back even if Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s extension didn't come to fruition
The Blue Jays took a calculated risk by signing Max Scherzer to a one-year, $15 million deal this offseason. On one hand, Scherzer, a future Hall of Famer, came with a good amount of upside, especially when he was brought in to essentially be the team's fourth starter. On the other hand, Scherzer is now 40 years old and had thrown just 43.1 innings all of last season. There was reason to believe he'd have trouble staying healthy, and sure enough, his entire Blue Jays tenure so far has been filled with injury woes.
Scherzer dealt with a thumb issue for much of spring training, and in his regular season debut with Toronto, he departed with a lat issue. He later wound up revealing that the lat issue was a result of his ailing thumb forcing him to overcompensate, putting his lat in danger.
Scherzer is undoubtedly a future first-ballot Hall of Famer and is still a rock-solid mid-rotation arm when healthy, but considering his age and recent inability to stay on the field, it'd be tough to envision the Jays rushing to bring him back whether Guerrero had agreed to an extension or not.
1. Bo Bichette could be out the door thanks to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s extension
Blue Jays fans might've thought that Guerrero was the only upcoming free agent that the franchise had to deal with due to the attention he was getting, but Bo Bichette, arguably their second-best player, is in that exact position. Now, with Guerrero extended, extending Bichette should be next up on Atkins' priority list. Is that feasible, though?
Bichette's contract situation is a tricky one, to say the least. He's led the American League in hits twice, is a two-time All-Star, and has received down-ballot MVP votes in three separate seasons. When he's right, he's a great player, and is off to a solid start to his 2025 campaign.
With that being said, Bichette is coming off a down year in 2024, is going to be asking for a lot of money, and the Jays have a plethora of replacement options for him internally. Andres Gimenez, Will Wagner, Orelvis Martinez, and Addison Barger are all either in the majors or knocking on the door, and can all realistically be viewed as long-term solutions in some capacity.
The Blue Jays would love to keep him around and certainly have the financial capability to do so, but there's reason to believe that after paying Guerrero, they'd be more willing to let Bichette go.
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