3 bold predictions for the Saints as they play home finale against the struggling Raiders
The New Orleans Saints close their home schedule Sunday (12 p.m. central, FOX) against the Las Vegas Raiders, which may give New Orleans interim coach Darren Rizzi hope. Rizzi has a chance to finish 5-3 since replacing fired coach Dennis Allen with a win today and next week at Tampa Bay. The Raiders retained interim coach Antonio Pierce last season after he went 5-4.
The Saints (5-10) will snap their two-game losing streak with a win over the shockingly 2.5-point favored Raiders (3-12), and here are three reasons why.
1. Saints to benefit from return to their level of opponent
New Orleans returns to its league - the National Failure League - as it plays a team it matches up with well. The Raiders just snapped a 10-game losing streak last week with a 19-14 win over Jacksonville, which is tied with Vegas and two other teams (Tennessee and Cleveland) for the third-worst record in the NFL at 3-12. The Raiders' previous win was way back on Sept. 29 over the Browns.
Four of the Saints' five wins have come against losing teams - 4-11 Carolina, 7-8 Dallas, 3-12 Cleveland and the 2-13 New York Giants. Its only win over a winning team was 20-17 over Atlanta, which is only 8-7, on Nov. 10 in Rizzi's first game with the interim tag. Every loss was to a winning team except for Allen's last one - to Carolina on Nov. 3.
The Saints will be missing starting quarterback Derek Carr (broken left hand) for the third straight week and star running back Alvin Kamara (groin) for the second straight week. Also out will be starting center Erik McCoy (elbow) and starting left guard Lucas Patrick (knee) as both were put on injured reserve on Saturday and will not play again this season. Starting wide receiver Chris Olave (concussion) will miss his seventh straight game.
But the Saints will still be good enough to beat Vegas. The Saints may have the No. 30 total defense in the NFL (378.4 yards allowed a game), but the Raiders have the No. 28 total offense (300.1 yards a game). New Orleans is 30th against the run, too (137.9 yards allowed), but Vegas is dead last in rushing (77.5 a game). The Saints are just 22nd in the league in scoring (20.6 points a game), but the Raiders are 27th in points allowed a game (26).
Yes, this has the makings of a thriller.
Oh, and the Raiders are significantly closer to much higher draft picks if they lose as only the Giants (2-13) and the Patriots (3-13) have worse records for the highest of pick position at the moment. The Saints have been hovering around the 10th pick in recent weeks. So, the Raiders have significantly more reason to lose. A Saints' loss would help their draft position, but not as dramatically.
2. Saints QB Spencer Rattler vs. Raiders QB Aidan O'Connell
Another classic pairing like Joe Burrow and Bo Nix on Saturday night, right? Wrong. Saints' rookie fifth-round pick Spencer Rattler will start his fifth game for an injured Derek Carr. In five games overall, he is 84-of-150 passing for a .560 completion percentage with three interceptions for 859 yards and two touchdowns with 17 sacks and a paltry 36.3 quarterback rating.
And don't blame the Saints' unhealthy offensive line. It was just as unhealthy for Carr, who let himself be sacked just eight times in 10 games, and he has a 64.7 QBR.
Rattler has played enough games to provide an accurate picture of his ability, and offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak does not sound overly pleased.
"Well, this is Spencer's reality," Kubiak said this week. "So yeah, we're getting a full evaluation of everything that he's about. That's your job as a quarterback - to elevate the people around you and make them all better."
That's not happening. Rattler's reality is he is 0-for-4 as the starter and is playing like a fifth-round pick.
"We've got to keep working - him, myself and all of us coaches," Kubiak said.
O'Connell, a fourth-round pick in 2023, is also a work in progress who is not progressing swiftly at the moment. He is 110-of-174 passing for a .632 completion percentage, 1,156 yards and four touchdowns with three interceptions, nine sacks and a 39.1 QBR. He is 1-4 as a starter as he hit 24 of 38 passes for 257 yards in the win last week over Jacksonville. The Saints are just No. 28 against the pass, though, with 240.5 yards allowed a game.
3. The Clyde Edwards-Helaire factor
On Saturday, the Saints activated recently acquired running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who was waived on Dec. 16 by Kansas City. The last pick of the first round in 2020, Edwards-Helaire shined as a rookie with 803 rushing yards and 297 receiving and played in the Super Bowl loss that season to Tampa Bay before being a part of two Super Bowl championship teams in the 2022 and '23 seasons.
Edwards-Helaire was a vital part of LSU's 2019 national championship season and is a Baton Rouge native. He returns to the Superdome, where he rushed for 110 yards on 16 carries and caught five passes for 54 yards in a 42-25 win over Clemson for the title on Jan. 13, 2020.
With Kamara out and second-year back Kendre Miller looking only so-so in five games (145 yards on 36 carries, 17 yards on four catches), look for Edwards-Helaire to get an oppportunity and shine.