The College Football Playoff national championship game is hours away. And Ohio State is on the verge of a miraculous run for the coveted title. After Thanksgiving, all hope felt lost for everyone outside of the locker room.
Ryan Day’s job was called into question and the Buckeyes, which were supposed to finally end their woes to Michigan, somehow lost a game they shouldn’t have. Then they went on a tear during the CFP stomping Tennessee and Oregon before beating Texas in the Cotton Bowl and semifinal game.
They’ll play against Notre Dame, who Urban Meyer claimed won’t stand a chance with a less-talented roster than Ohio State. But that didn’t stop them when they beat Indiana, Penn State or Georgia to reach the title game in Atlanta.
Despite the roster disparity, this game should be a lot closer than most of Ohio State’s games throughout the CFP. It’s no fluke the Fighting Irish made it to the title game. But this will undoubtedly be their toughest game of the playoffs.
The hardest part is they’ll probably have to play differently than they have against the first three teams. Here’s my bold predictions on the title game of the first 12-team College Football Playoff.
3. Riley Leonard’s passing ability is going to be the difference between a national championship and a blowout loss
Riley Leonard has been one of the top quarterbacks this playoffs, but it’s less about his passing ability. He’s a running threat that even Penn State had trouble containing in the Orange Bowl. He won’t have the same success against Ohio State.
We saw Leonard’s liability as a passer with a late-game interception that almost cost them a shot at a national championship. He has three interceptions in three playoff games. The one game the Irish dominated, he didn’t even eclipse 100 passing yards.
Leonard threw for 2,092 yards and 16 touchdowns in the regular season. He can do enough as a passer, but he’s not a real passing threat. Which plays into Ohio State’s strength.
The Buckeyes aren’t going to let the Irish run all over them. Even with multiple weapons out of the backfield to utilize, if they can’t get momentum in the passing game, this game won’t be close.
Leonard is as good of a redzone threat as having a bruiser at running back. The run game has been Ohio State’s kryptonite at times. It was honestly the reason they lost to Michigan. Ohio State isn’t that same team it was two months ago.
And that’s why they aren’t going to let the Irish take off on them in the run game. Leonard will have to be an elite passer to get past the Buckeyes.
2. Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka are going to have a field-day against aggressive Notre Dame secondary
Notre Dame isn’t shy about their defensive philosophy. But if there’s one thing they can learn from Ohio State’s playoff run, it’s that their receiving core is no joke. Jeremiah Smith showed why he’s the best freshman in the country in the first two games.
And Emeka Egbuka reminded everyone why he was the Buckeyes’ top receiver coming into the season. Notre Dame will have its hands full and sticking with man coverage against Egbuka and Smith.
If they rely on strictly man coverage to thwart Ohio State’s high-powered offense, it will be the reason they get blown out. The Fighting Irish need to be less focused on pride and more focused on how they can contain Smith.
When he’s not a factor in the game, Ohio State struggles. Yes, they have two running backs with over 950 rushing yards each. But, like in the games with Tennessee and Ohio State, this offense is relentless when Smith is part of the plan.
And Notre Dame considering one-on-one coverage against him and even Egbuka could be a problem. According to a story on Notre Dame’s Rivals page, all of their starting defensive backs are better in man than zone.
But when it comes to Smith and Egbuka, it may hurt them staying in man coverage. I’m sure they’ll try and show some decoy coverages and shells to throw Will Howard and Chip Kelly off. Because they won’t win, continuing to rely on one-on-one coverage.
1. As good as Ohio State’s pass game is, if they can’t establish a run game it could be the reason they lose
The focus for Ohio State entering Monday night’s game is how Notre Dame’s secondary will match up against the Buckeye’s lethal receivers. But there’s another factor to this game too.
Ohio State has to find a way to get Trevyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins going. Henderson has burst onto the scene as both a receiver and rusher out of the backfield. But they’ll have to continue that on Monday.
Notre Dame is confident they can contain Smith and Egbuka. But the quickest way to force Notre Dame to get out of their game plan is to have a solid rushing attack. If both Judkins and Henderson get going, they’ll shift their focus to the running backs.
And that’s how their receivers can take off. Obviously that’s easier said than done. But Ohio State has to establish a run game just as much as get Smith going early. They have so many weapons at their disposal. Being one dimensional will result in a loss; plain and simple.
Both parts of the offense have to have an impact on the game. Notre Dame won’t be able to take away both. Their focus will be on attacking the passing game. It’s why Ohio State has won the last three games convincingly. That’s why their run game could be a secret weapon.