3 bold predictions for Saints vs. Commanders: Offensive struggle, Daniels dominates

The New Orleans Saints, 5-8 on the season and 0-for-8 against teams with a winning record, play the 8-5 Washington Commanders at home Sunday. Washington is a 7.5-point favorite to make the Saints 0-9 against success.

Interim coach Darren Rizzi is 3-1 overall after replacing fired head coach Dennis Allen after a 2-7 start and seven-game skid. New Orleans' five wins have come against Carolina, which is 3-10 and Dallas (5-8) in the first two weeks of the season, followed by Atlanta (6-7), Cleveland (3-10) and the New York Giants (2-11).

It doesn't look good. Saints starting quarterback Derek Carr is not expected to play with a concussion and broken left, non-throwing hand suffered last week in the win over the Giants. The defense has played well and kept it in the game two weeks ago in the loss to the Rams. But it will have trouble containing Washington dual-threat Jayden Daniels.

1. Jake Haener to make first start of career, and that will be obvious

The Saints will be trying to break their trend against winning teams with inexperienced, second-year quarterback Jake Haener starting Sunday, according to a report Thursday by New Orleans football. Haener has played sparingly in seven games this season, completing 14-of-29 passes for 177 yards and a touchdown. Virtually all of his time came after the game was decided as he backed up Carr and rookie Spencer Rattler, who started three games in October when Carr was out with an oblique injury.

As a fourth-round rookie selection out of Fresno State in 2023, Haener did not play last season. After Carr was hurt Sunday, Haener beat out Rattler as the two shared the practice repetitions on Wednesday and Thursday. Rattler got the call when Carr was hurt previously because of his running ability, but his play was erratic.

Bottom line, both quarterbacks may play if Carr does not, and neither is very good or tested, and the best scenario for Haener is likely that he not mess up too much as the Saints focus on the ground game. Washington is No. 5 in the NFL against the pass at 191.2 yards allowed a game and No. 12 in total defense (327.7 yards a game), so Haener has quite an assignment.

Saints back Alvin Kamara is eighth in the NFL in rushing with 938 yards on 223 carries and six touchdowns, and the Commanders are bad against the run at No. 28 with 136.5 yards allowed a game. But Kamara missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with an illness. If he is not at his best, the Saints may try second-year back Kendre Miller, who has had his moments.

2. Washington QB Jayden Daniels could have a career day

Rookie Jayden Daniels will return to Louisiana for the first time since one of the greatest dual-threat seasons for a quarterback in college football history as he won the Heisman Trophy at LSU in 2023. He passed for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns with only four interceptions and rushed for 1,134 yards on 135 carries with 10 touchdowns.

Daniels is 16th in the NFL this season in passing yards a game at 216.8 and No. 7 in Quarterback Rating at 99.4 on 252-of-362 passing for 2,819 yards and 15 touchdowns with six interceptions. He has rushed 108 times for 590 yards and six touchdowns with two fumbles.

The Saints are No. 30 in total defense in the NFL (380.5 yards allowed a game), 28th against the pass (246.3) and 25th against the run (134.2). New Orleans even let Giants' quarterback Drew Lock - not known as a run threat - ramble for 59 yards on five carries last week, including a 14-yard scramble on 3rd-and-9 late in a TD drive in which the Giants drew within 14-11. He also gained 25 yards on a 4th-and-10 run on the Giants' last-minute drive for a field goal attempt that was blocked.

"We let the quarterback run a little bit, which obviously we can't do this game because that guy (Daniels) is going to make even bigger plays," Rizzi said. "That's going to be a huge thing that we've got to get corrected."

Defensive end Cam Jordan said the Saints need to rush Daniels very carefully.

"There's mobile quarterbacks, and then there's young fast quarterbacks. They're going to pop right back up," he said. "It's going to be annoying."

Daniels has had five games this season with 50 rushing yards or more. He gained 74 yards on seven rushes in a win over Dallas on Nov. 24.

"This is not the fun rush where you say, 'Hey, let's all get our one-on-one and win,'" Jordan said. "This is, 'Let's slow down and make sure we have our eyes on this cat.' Even last game, we let the quarterback explode on runs. Shouldn't ever let that happen."

3. Commanders will beat the spread

The Saints are a 7.5-point underdog at home and looked like they were descending in the 14-11 win over a bad Giants team last week. The luster of the supposed Rizzi Revolution appears to be waning. Haener will not be able to handle the first start of his NFL career for an offense that has never been consistent this season. He will have only a rag-tag team of wide receiver fill-ins at his disposal, and that's with rookie Bub Means, who is trying to come back from an ankle injury.

The Saints' lack of a quality pass rush all season will really hurt Sunday as Daniels will run free as if he is still 87 miles up river in Baton Rouge.