Duke's Final Four flameout will live on in NCAA Tournament lore, but it will not impact Cooper Flagg's standing with NBA teams. The talented 18-year-old will be the No. 1 pick in a few months; we're just waiting to know which team gets the privilege.
Flagg has been the motivator behind a particularly blatant tank race from the NBA's bottom-dwellers this season. We've seen the Jazz resting healthy 23-year-olds. We've seen the Raptors bench their stars late in the fourth quarter of winnable games. We've seen the Sixers slowly commit to season-ending surgeries for all of their major pieces. It has been a brash, calculated dash to the basement.
May's NBA Draft Lottery will use pingpong balls to determine which team actually gets to select Flagg. There is not a single team on which Flagg does not "fit." He is a generational talent and he will be treated accordingly, whether he joins a wannabe contender like the Sixers, or he goes to a more patient rebuilding situation like Utah.
That said, one of the most intriguing hypotheticals around the Flagg sweepstakes is attempting to find out the exact cost, in terms of assets, for such a promising 18-year-old. No team is going to trade out of the No. 1 pick, but what if? What would it take for the lotto winner to pass on Flagg?
Let's attempt to compromise a few workable trade packages. Since we don't know which team actually gets to select Flagg, these are rough outlines of workable trade packages, which may need to be reworked for specific trade partners based on financial restrictions.
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3. Would the Memphis Grizzlies trade Ja Morant for Cooper Flagg and reset?
What Memphis gives up: Ja Morant, 2029 first-round pick
Ja Morant is still a spectacular talent, but the 25-year-old point guard has slowly lost his luster in recent years. A lot of it comes down to injuries. He hasn't spent enough time on the floor, and even when "healthy" this season, Morant has struggled to reach the heights of yore. He has also stained his reputation somewhat with boneheaded off-court decisions.
The Memphis Grizzlies are in a transitional period, despite their presumptive postseason berth. Taylor Jenkins was fired with weeks left in the regular season. The roster is built to contend, but it's unclear if this group, as currently constructed, can get over the hump. In a vacuum, the concept of swapping Morant for a more versatile two-way star like Flagg, at the very beginning of what promises to be a storied career, is awfully appealing.
As for the flip side of the coin, Morant is a guaranteed top-30 player under contract through 2028. If the Grizzlies part with Morant and a future first-round pick, that is an awful lot of value for an unproven asset. We all think Flagg will be great, but we can never know for certain until a player shows it against NBA competition. This feels like a reasonable reshuffling of the deck for Memphis, as well as an appealing talent-grab for a team at No. 1 looking to improve its standing immediately.
2. Rockets can offer a boatload of picks and young talent for Cooper Flagg
What Houston gives up: Reed Sheppard, Cam Whitmore, 2025 first-round pick (PHX), 2027 first-round pick (PHX)
The Houston Rockets will be the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference with an extremely young roster. Few teams are better equipped to contend for the next five-plus years than Ime Udoka's squad. Alperen Sengun continues to elevate his status as an offensive centerpiece, while the rapid star ascent of Amen Thompson deserves more attention.
Houston has pretty much nailed its post-James Harden rebuild. In addition to being a ready-made contender, the Rockets are flush with prospects — to the point where the reigning No. 3 overall pick, Reed Sheppard, can barely get on the floor. Houston also has several valuable draft assets, including those Phoenix Suns first-round picks in 2025 and 2027.
That 2027 Suns pick in particular might be the most valuable single draft asset available, beyond the guarantee of selecting Flagg at No. 1 overall. Who knows what the Suns look like a couple years from now? Even trading Kevin Durant won't provide Phoenix with much financial relief, nor a clear path to building a contender around Devin Booker. For all we know, Booker might ask out before then.
As such, this package brings a lot of hypothetical value. Sheppard and Cam Whitmore are both lottery-level prospects, while Houston also coughs up a late lottery selection in the 2025 draft and a juicy lottery ticket in the 2027 draft. This feels like the kind of package that at least makes a team think twice.
1. Thunder have the ammo — and the incentive — to add a cost-controlled star like Cooper Flagg
What OKC gives up: Cason Wallace, Nikola Topic, 2025 first-round pick (PHI), 2027 first-round pick (DEN), 2029 first-round pick, 2031 first-round pick
The Oklahoma City Thunder are the No. 1 seed in the West and the youngest team in the NBA, a strange duality. Sam Presti has executed his patient rebuild to perfection, stockpiling young star-power and excellent complementary pieces without sacrificing his mountain of draft assets. OKC still has more first-round picks than it can realistically use over the next five years, so trading some (or all) of them is something that will have to be done eventually.
OKC is also running against the clock financially. Both Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are due max contract extensions in the near future. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is already a supermax candidate, while Isaiah Hartenstein's deal is quite hefty for a team's fourth-best player. So, rather than trading their picks for an established star on a burdensome contract, the Thunder can flip them for Cooper Flagg — an up-and-coming star on a four-year rookie contract, which figures to pale in comparison to his on-court contributions.
Flagg's skill set is a perfect match for what OKC likes to do and he wouldn't face undue pressure given the strong infrastructure around him. This, like the other trades, almost certainly won't happen, but OKC can afford to part with a few top prospects, four first-round picks, and maybe even a bit more if it means putting Flagg on the roster.