I likely won't deliver any shocks in predicting the three likeliest winners this weekend at the 1.99-mile Sonoma Raceway. But the most obvious winner is not invincible, and in a series like NASCAR Cup, where the fastest guy probably doesn't even win a majority of the time, we very well could see a new winner punch a ticket to the playoffs (or increase their playoff seeding).
With that being said, here are three favorites and someone who could surprise amongst the typical road course crop to escape with a victory.
Three favorites to win at Sonoma Raceway
1. Shane van Gisbergen
Yeah, this didn't take much brain power to decide.
SVG's last five Cup road course starts haven't seen him finish worse than seventh. He just swept the entire weekend at Chicago, winning pole and the race in Cup and Xfinity.
And he was a winner last season in Xfinity at Sonoma, so it isn't like this is an unfamiliar track to him (not that that would matter?).
If SVG continues to show up his much more seasoned competition, I really hope it will become a point of pride/embarrassment that will force other drivers to step it up against him. Especially with the possibility of a new road course in San Diego maybe on the horizon.
2. Michael McDowell
Whether McDowell actually had van Gisbergen's number last week pre-technical issue, or SVG was just saving his best for later, we don't really know. It could've been a great battle that we were deprived of.
But McDriver is coming into this weekend hungry to make up for what he lost in Chicago.
Chicago was a preview. The real show’s next weekend @RaceSonoma. https://t.co/DKjivdsrDr
— Michael McDowell (@Mc_Driver) July 7, 2025
And with good reason, too. McDowell has become one of the top five or so most reliable racers at a road course in recent years. He had six consecutive top 15s at road courses before Chicago, finished runner-up at Sonoma in 2024 and hasn't finished outside the top seven there since 2021.
McDowell sits a tough 77 points back of the playoff cut line with seven races to go, so he needs to throw everything he's got at Sonoma.
3. Chris Buescher
A P18 in Chicago and a P10 at Mexico for NASCAR's previous two road course visits would be a decent output for some, but not for the No. 17 driver. Buescher hasn't finished outside the top 20 at a road course in nearly 3.5 years. Over that period, Buescher has notched 15 top 10s at road courses over 19 tries.
Buescher's consistency has been amazing to see ever since he came over to RFK, but to date he only has last year's thrilling Watkins Glen win to show for in terms of P1s amid that consistency.
Once again, Buescher finds himself near the cut line (just 35 points clear) coming into the home stretch of the regular season. Last year, he missed out on the postseason, but this upcoming stretch of races offers him a good shot to lock himself in, or at least stack up good points.
One driver to pull an upset win at Sonoma
Kyle Busch
Even a few years on, it still feels weird considering Busch as an underdog.
But the misery has just compounded for the 63-time Cup winner. After a promising first year at RCR, Busch now is up to 76 starts without a race win, is on the outside of the playoff picture and has just three top 10s since mid-March.
But Busch has shown some sparks at road courses at RCR. He was able to grab a top-five even despite a spin in Chicago. He was competitive at COTA earlier this year, too. Busch's average road course finish since manning the No. 8 car is 13.0, including eight top 10s in 14 tries.
We're a decade on from Busch's last road course win, but he has taken victory at Sonoma twice (2008, 2015). Even if it seems like Busch's prime has passed, and the car under him is not up to his talent level, he's still proven to have road course prowess, and needs some big results the rest of the way to make the playoffs.