The North Carolina Tar Heels have had quite a week. It started when they fell in a huge hole early in the ACC Tournament semis against Duke, then nearly pulled off an amazing comeback before falling just short on a free throw lane violation in the final seconds.
That easily could have marked the end of UNC's season, but much to the surprise of many, the Heels were given the final at-large spot in the NCAA Tournament field. Now that they're here, they look extremely dangerous, as they blew out San Diego State by 27 on Wednesday night in the First Four despite getting into town late after experiencing travel issues.
After taking out the Aztecs, the Heels are now set to face off against No. 6 seed Ole Miss in Milwaukee. The Rebels have been impressive this season in navigating a historically difficult SEC, and they'll present a significant challenge even if the Heels do continue to play their best basketball.
The win over San Diego State already has Carolina fans comparing this team to the one that went from an 8-seed all the way to the national championship game in 2022. That tournament run also started with a blowout, but we'll get a much better idea of this team's ceiling by what they're able to do on Friday afternoon.
Chris Beard's club is very good, but at 22-11, they're far from unbeatable. Here are three things the Heels have to do to send Ole Miss back to Oxford.
The Heels followed our "3 keys to victory" to a T on Wednesday night. If they can do it again, a spot in the Round of 32 could be within reach.
Crash the boards relentlessly
Through most of the past few decades, Carolina has been one of the best rebounding teams in the country. That hasn't been the case this year, as they've been outworked on the boards and have lost the battle for second chance points far too frequently for Hubert Davis' liking.
Teams with size have given Carolina trouble, especially in the backcourt, where Elliot Cadeau and RJ Davis are both 6-foot-1 or less. This isn't an area that Ole Miss will be able to exploit, because their starting backcourt of Sean Pedulla and Jaylen Murray are the same size.
In the frontcourt, the Rebels don't have a single player getting regular minutes that measures over 6-foot-9. It's little surprise then that they rank as one of the worst rebounding teams in the country.
The Heels need to dominate the glass. Ven-Allen Lubin has been so good for over a month. Jalen Washington should be able to feast down low. Jae'Lyn Withers had a few great hustle plays to secure loose balls on Wednesday, and we need to see more of that.
Ole Miss is fourth in the nation in turnover margin. To counterbalance that, the Heels need to win the rebounding battle by double digits.
Keep Sean Pedulla off the 3-point line
One of the first things that every Carolina fan does when perusing the bracket is to pinpoint which opposing guard is capable of getting red-hot. Disturbing as it may be, there's a long history of Tar Heel opponents having the game of their lives in the tournament, and that's something we'd like to prevent at all costs. I still have nighmares over what Harold Arceneaux of Weber State and his 36 points did to upset the Heels in 1999.
Sean Pedulla is the most obvious candidate on Ole Miss. The senior is a streaky shooter who averages 14.9 points per game, and he showed when he put up 29 points against No. 1-ranked Auburn in early February that he's capable of lighting it up against anyone.
Pedulla has been cold lately, which should only make UNC fans more worried that he's due to go off. He was 6-13 from the floor but 0-5 from 3-point range in Ole Miss' loss to Auburn in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals, and he was 1-7 from deep against Arkansas in the game before that.
That one make was a big one, as it broke an 80-80 tie with just 1.3 seconds left to send John Calipari and his team home. That tells me that Pedulla has the kind of hero mentality that can do damage in March, as even a few misses won't shake his confidence that the next one will go in.
Carolina needs to stick to Pedulla like glue, especially on the 3-point line. Seth Trimble is the best option to do that for his ability to deny the ball and get around screens, but it will take a group effort to make sure he doesn't get hot.
Take the ball to the basket
Chris Beard teams are traditionally excellent defensively. That's how he helped lead Texas Tech to a national runner-up finish in 2019, but although he's already done amazing work in making Ole Miss into a top-25 team, he hasn't quite been able in two years to mold them into the suffocating defensive force that one would expect.
Ole Miss does force a lot of turnovers, but their opponents shoot over 50 percent from 2-point range. They also foul a ton, and that's going to be the key for the Heels to get points. Drive the ball to the basket, draw contact, and get easy points at the line.
San Diego State is one of the best defensive teams in the country, yet Carolina was able to get to the line 24 times, converting 21 of them. The Heels need to keep that same attacking mentality on Friday and not fall into the trap of falling in love with the 3, especially after RJ Davis shot a perfect 6-6 from beyond the arc.
Elliot Cadeau has been a Jekyll and Hyde player for Carolina, but when he's good, he takes the Heels to a much higher level. He dished out 12 assists and turned it over only two times against the Aztecs. If he plays like that again, then the Heels have a big advantage.