3 luxury tax legends with a watchful eye on Tarik Skubal this postseason

Tarik Skubal is a shoo-in for the American League Cy Young award. He has backed up his sterling reputation with a dominant postseason on the bump for America's favorite underdog, the Detroit Tigers. After a decade-long October baseball drought, the Tigers are back in the national consciousness. Skubal introduced himself to that new audience with aplomb.

Skubal is 27 years old with two years of arbitration eligibility left on his contract. The Tigers aren't going to trade him any time soon, especially if the postseason is back within reach come 2025. But, it's certainly something to start thinking about. Skubal was tellingly involved in trade rumors at the deadline this season, even though it was often couched with a hedge. "Detroit probably won't trade him."

The proved true, but the mere mention of Skubal in connection to teams like Baltimore or New York is a sign of how precarious his future in Detroit really is. The Tigers don't traditionally spend top-dollar on free agents and Skubal could easily command a contract in excess of $300 million in a couple years, maybe even $400 million if the MLB marketplace continues to expand.

We are, simply put, talking about the best pitcher in the sport. It's a familiar feeling for Tigers fans, who spent a decade-plus with Justin Verlander. But, as Detroit fans will tell you first-hand, the greats typically don't stick around forever. Greedy contenders will be keeping a close eye on Skubal, waiting for the best possible moment to strike — whether it's via trade or in free agency, when Skubal is free to leave Detroit hanging for a better offer.

Here are the landing spots that would make the most sense in terms of competitive status and financial wherewithal.

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3 luxury tax legends with a watchful eye on Tarik Skubal this postseason

3. Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies are typically high-rollers in free agency, as evidenced by their recent pursuit of Yoshinobu Yamamoto. There isn't a stronger rotation top-four in the National League than Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez, and Ranger Suarez. All but Suarez are locked up for a few more years at least, but we need to think a few years down the road with Skubal.

Wheeler, for all his immense talent, is 34 years old. He won't be able to maintain his ace status forever and the Phillies will need to start thinking about longevity and sustainability around him. Skubal has a chance to slide into Wheeler's shoes, so to speak, emerging as that top-line ace Dave Dombrowski and the Phillies' coaching staff can lean on for the next decade.

Philadelphia was connected to Garrett Crochet at the trade deadline, so we know the Phils are looking to boost the rotation at any and all cost. Andrew Painter is potentially a major-league pawn within the next year or two, but as the Phillies' core pieces age, more holes will open up. Landing Skubal in Philadelphia would be a major boon for the organization — a safety net for the rotation.

Skubal is a fiery competitor, always animated walking back to the dugout after a clutch inning. He's built for that Philadelphia environment — the raucous applause and deafening buzz of expectation. Citizens Bank Park would love him.

2. New York Mets

Steve Cohen famously has the deepest pockets in MLB ownership circles. The New York Mets are in the NLCS after a couple rocky seasons and appear destined to spend the next several years contending in a crowded NL East. New York has been connected to all the major free agents — Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes — and that suspected aggression to should translate to the eventual availability of Skubal.

There is a natural allure to playing in Queens, in what many would call the greatest city in the world. New York has a rich baseball culture and ownership's willingness to spend should appeal to Skubal beyond his own contract. It means, in general, that the Mets will keep adding pieces around him and keeping the depth chart well-stocked.

New York's rotation is somewhat in limbo once this season ends. Kodai Senga should stick around a while, but Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, and Jose Quintana are all free agents. The frees up the Mets to spend on big-ticket options, such as Corbin Burnes or Blake Snell, but it also gives the Mets a chance to plan ahead — to perhaps keep their options open just in case Skubal darkens their doorstep as a free agent or trade candidate.

The Tigers simply cannot compare with the resources available in Queens. With the Mets officially back on the October stage, it becomes easier and easier to imagine the game's best players in that clubhouse.

1. New York Yankees

We cannot ignore the Los Angeles Dodgers, of course, but Los Angeles has Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani, and Bobby Miller on lockdown for the next several years. At a certain point, the Dodgers needs to hold their chips and not cash out on what could be the most expensive pitcher... ever.

That brings us to the New York Yankees, who despite ownership mandates to trim salary and limit luxury tax, will always be in the mix for the truly great players. The allure of playing in New York is a feather in the Mets' cap. The allure of playing for the Yankees, however, is an entirely different thing. There is not a more historic club in our great sport. So many of baseball's true legends have cycled through the Yankees organization that it's hard, even for the staunchest small-market warriors, to avoid thinking "What might it feel like for Player X to wear pinstripes?"

Skubal would give the Yankees an heir to Gerrit Cole's throne as the top ace in town. New York was willing to run up the bill on Yamamoto last winter and should be similarly willing to hand Skubal a bag when the moment arrives. Ideally, the Yankees will still have both Aaron Judge and Juan Soto propping up the offense when that moment arrives.

What is setting up to be a cross-town free agent battle for Juan Soto could end up manifesting once again when Skubal becomes available. The Yankees and Mets have the deep pockets, the market size, and the competitive aspirations to rope Skubal in. It just... makes sense.

Ideally he finishes his career in Detroit and builds a historic one-team resume, but we know how the business of baseball works. It's only a matter of time until Skubal's future becomes a popular topic of speculation.