3 overreactions to Bears Hail Mary loss: Did this just cost Chicago a playoff spot?

This could have been the defining win of the Matt Eberflus era, a testament to red zone defense and giving all you've got through four quarters and never giving up. It could have been, and it nearly was. Then it wasn't.

This could have been the surest sign of growth that fans of the Chicago Bears have seen this year. The team's first road win and another double-digit comeback, stealing victory from the jaws of defeat like they did against the Tennessee Titans in Week 1, only this time against a 5-2 playoff contender. Then it wasn't.

This game could have been a lot of things for the Bears, but all anybody is going to remember is the final play of the game, a desperation heave from Jayden Daniels that turned into what was somehow both the most consequential and the easiest catch of Noah Brown's life.

The Bears have a lot of self-reflecting to do today. That goes for everyone, from the coaching staff to the players, and probably to us as fans as well, for living and dying with every play and going from frustration to despair to hope to elation to fear to ... well, you know. Sundays are supposed to be relaxing, yeah?

What hurts the most about this loss is the self-inflicted nature of it all. Matt Eberflus' defense was nothing short of heroic in keeping Jayden Daniels and the Commanders out of the end zone for the first 60 minutes of the game, but after doing so much right, Eberflus and the D did so much wrong when it mattered most. My seven-year-old daughter asked me as the final ball was in the air, "Daddy, isn't the game over? The clock says zero." Sorry baby, unfortunately, that's not the way it works.

There are many hot takes that could be had in the immediate aftermath of a loss like that, but I'm kind of glad that I got a night's sleep before trying to communicate them here. This may have read like an Edgar Allen Poe novel otherwise, and even though it's a spooky season, nobody wants that, even if the game did play out like a gothic horror to Bears fans.

This isn't the kind of loss that a team can just shake off and move on from, and it's certainly not one that fans will forget any time soon. Here are three overreactions from a Bears fan who isn't feeling much better on Monday morning.

Bears overreaction 1: Matt Eberflus' late-game coaching is going to cost him his job at some point

There are a lot of people that deserve blame for the way this game went down. The offensive line reverted back to its abysmal Week 1-3 form, failing to give Caleb Williams time against Dan Quinn's pressure defense all game long. Caleb himself, though he showed a ton of guts and heart in picking himself off the mat in the fourth quarter, was nonetheless extremely shaky through the first three. Shane Waldron, who seemed to be earning back the trust of Bears fans after back-to-back 35-point games, blew all that goodwill up in a Doug Kramer-shaped mushroom cloud with an incomprehensibly bad play call at the goal line.

More than anyone though, this loss hangs on Matt Eberflus. Even if the defense does everything wrong, as the Bears defense clearly did, a 52-yard Hail Mary still has a minimal chance of success, but Eberflus' game management and decision-making put the Commanders in a position to steal a game that should have been over.

I'll forgive Eberflus for missing a challenge that would have negated a Daniels-to-Terry McLaurin third-down conversion in the fourth quarter because he's relying on someone upstairs to give him good information and there just wasn't enough time to make an informed decision, critical though it would have been.

What I can't forgive is everything that happened in the final two plays of the game. With the Commanders at their own 35 and out of timeouts with six seconds left, Eberflus ran what looked to be his Hail Mary defense, which allowed Daniels to hit McLaurin for an easy 13 yards on the sideline.

That play will be forgotten by most because of what happened next, but if Eberflus hadn't conceded those yards, Washington never would have been in range to get close with a Hail Mary on the final play. There's no reason to not have the sidelines bracketed like they were at the end of the first half, which would have forced Daniels to either throw it away, heave it 10 or 15 yards short of the end zone, or run the old Cal-Stanford play to go the length of the field. In any scenario, it's hard to see how the defense could screw that one up.

Even after letting the Commanders get near midfield, it was still advantage Bears, but Eberflus botched the final play in every way. First, he didn't use a timeout to ensure that everyone knew their assignments on the final play. With the way things played out, a refresher seems like it could have been useful.

Second, he only rushed three, and he had TJ Edwards spying on Jayden Daniels. This is Hail Mary 101 stuff, and we saw the Lions execute it perfectly in their victory over the Vikings last week. Sam Darnold dropped back to set up a last-second Hail Mary, but before he could even set his feet he was swallowed up for a game-ending sack because Detroit actually brought pressure.

We're not asking for an overload blitz, just five rushers so that Daniels isn't able to buy time and allow his receivers to set up camp in the end zone. And as for Edwards — was Eberflus really worried that Daniels would be able to run for a touchdown? What purpose did he serve on this play? The Bears didn't even have Darrell Taylor or Austin Booker, two of their best pass-rushers, on the field, which is why Daniels had all day back there.

Eberflus went over the fact that the Bears practice Hail Mary defense all the time in his postgame press conference. He even detailed how they're taught to defend it, yet when it came time to execute, the Bears secondary all went to the ball, leaving Noah Brown all by himself in the end zone. Reminder, the Bears ended the game with all three timeouts in their pocket.

Eberflus has built the Bears' culture, but that's only part of what makes a good head coach. You need to execute and make good decisions on the field, and Eberflus hasn't been able to do that with any consistency. This isn't the first awful loss the Bears have had under his watch.

Another part of being a good head coach is learning from your mistakes and admitting when you're wrong. Eberflus has doubled down on his belief that the 13-yard play to McLaurin "didn't matter," which tells me that he's just not going to get any better at this.

Some Bears fans are complaining today that the refs missed multiple holding calls on the final play. Like it or not, that's not getting flagged in that situation, just as the defense is able to get away with pass interference. That's not why the Bears lost. Eberflus is.

The roster is much improved from when Eberflus first took over, which is why the Bears do have a winning record. Is Eberflus the coach to take this team to the promised land, though? All evidence points to no.

Bears overreaction 2: Tyrique Stevenson needs to sit for a game

One way that Eberflus can try to get some credibility back is by holding cornerback Tyrique Stevenson accountable. Stevenson is the No. 2 corner on the Bears behind Jaylon Johnson, and he's arguably one of the team's most important players since opposing quarterbacks are so unwilling to throw Johnson's way.

This is only Stevenson's second year in the league, and I've been a big fan of his since the Bears drafted him. There's no other way to cut it, though — Sunday's performance was an embarrassment.

Stevenson was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct at the end of the third quarter after poking a Commanders lineman in the eye after the play, and he spent all game jawing with McLaurin, who seemed to revel in teaching the young buck a thing or two on his way to five catches and 125 yards.

Stevenson has a history of this kind of stuff, as he got into it with Texans receiver Nico Collins in Week 2. Stevenson was lucky that the refs flagged Collins on that play, but he got his revenge one play later as he burned the Bears for a touchdown.

On the Hail Mary that ended the game, Stevenson wasn't even looking at the snap because he was taunting the Washington fans. He didn't turn and realize the play was even happening until the Commanders receivers had reached the 25-yard line, and then after scrambling to get in the play, he was the one that got a hand on the ball and tipped it to Noah Brown.

I watch as much football as I can, and I can't remember a player having a worse sequence than this all year. You'd have to go back a long time to find something as embarrassing and selfish as this. I'm talking Desean Jackson dropping the ball short of the goal line, Myles Garrett swinging a helmet at Mason Rudolph, Kyle Turley ripping off his opponent's helmet and tossing it 30 yards type of stuff.

Stevenson issued an apology on X after the game, saying, "To Chicago and teammates my apologies for lack of awareness and focus …. The game ain’t over until zeros hit the clock. Can’t take anything for granted. Notes taken, improvement will happen. #Beardown"

I appreciate Stevenson owning his mistake afterward, but when you cost the team the game with your unprofessionalism, there has to be more than a postgame apology. Eberflus should sit him for next week's game against the Cardinals, Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. be damned. Winning teams don't allow this kind of stuff.

Bears overreaction 3: The playoffs may not be happening this year

There's a lot of season left, and a lot of time to turn this thing around. But man, it is not going to be easy with this schedule. The Bears desperately needed to stack wins in the early going, and while 4-3 is good compared to where they've been the last two seasons, 5-2 with the tiebreaker over the Commanders is a whole lot better.

It's going to take at least 10 wins to make the playoffs in the NFC, and quite possibly 11. That means the Bears may need to finish the year 7-3 while facing the Packers, Vikings and Lions twice, while also dealing with the Cardinals, Niners and Seahawks. That's a tall order for any team.

Beating the Commanders would have pulled the Bears even with the suddenly reeling Vikings, and a half-game ahead of Washington. Instead, they're now two full games behind the Lions for the division lead. Only the Saints, Giants and Panthers are more than a game behind the Bears in the ultra-competitive NFC.

The Bears schedule had them facing the Commanders, Cardinals and Patriots before reaching the back-loaded division gauntlet that begins when they host the Packers in Week 11. To have any chance at all of reaching the postseason, they had to win at least two out of three of those games to get to 6-4. Next week's game in Arizona now becomes a must-win, but with an 0-3 road record on the season and a 3-17 road record under Eberflus, success in the desert is far from guaranteed.

Every season has its defining moments, and the Bears just had one. There's a good chance we look back in January and point to the final play against the Commanders as the inflection point when a good season went south.