3 San Diego Padres who won’t be back if they whiff on Roki Sasaki

The baseball world is still waiting on a decision from Japanese ace Roki Sasaki, but things aren't looking good for the San Diego Padres. The team seemed cautiously optimistic after hosting the righty for an in-person visit in San Diego earlier this week, but he followed that with a similar visit with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and since then, things have been trending in the wrong direction.

You can't blame AJ Preller and the Padres for making Sasaki their biggest priority this winter. Chances to land a frontline starter just entering his prime for pennies on the dollar don't come around very often, and landing him would've changed the trajectory of the franchise not just in 2025 but for years to come — Sasaki comes with six years of team control and the sort of financial impact that would ease the burden on a team currently embroiled in an ugly ownership battle.

Now, though, it looks like that dream is just about dead, and Preller is tasked with sorting through the wreckage and salvaging the rest of his team's offseason. And that means having to answer some very tough questions: With Sasaki in tow, San Diego was built to go toe-to-toe with the Dodgers in the NL West; if he goes to L.A., however, the Padres might opt to go in a very different direction.

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3. RHP Robert Suarez

You'd think that a team that game within one game of the NLCS last season would be in the business of buying rather than selling. But the financial reality is that the Padres need to make some cuts, and Suarez's name has been floating in the rumor mill for months now. The righty is coming off an excellent season as San Diego's closer (2.77 ERA, 36 saves), but he's set to hit arbitration starting next year, and relievers a notoriously volatile proposition that teams don't often love to sink major money into.

Maybe that's why, after weeks of denying interest in a Suarez trade, San Diego appears to have changed its tune in recent days. If the team had landed Sasaki, it would've been the competitive edge and revenue boost that the team needed to keep this group together and make another run at a World Series in 2025. Suarez is a very good player, but he's a luxury that the team can't afford right now, especially when Preller could flip him elsewhere for more cost-controlled assets.

2. INF Luis Arraez

You're starting to notice a theme here: Sasaki was the lynchpin holding San Diego's offseason together, and if he is in fact headed elsewhere — within the division, no less — it's hard to see the Padres getting aggressive in adding talent ahead of spring training. Instead, it might be time for a bit of a reset, shipping off players who don't figure into the team's long-term plans while getting younger and most cost-effective for the future.

Given that context, Arraez feels like he's as good as gone. The infielder is set to hit free agency next winter, and while he's a valuable hitter, the volatility of his bat from year to year as well as his lack of value as a defender and baserunner mean that it's unlikely the team is interested in keeping him around. Given how many teams need infielders right now (including the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and New York Mets), a trade here could make a lot of sense if San Diego needs to trim the fat a bit.

1. RHP Dylan Cease

Here's the big one. It might feel strange for San Diego to respond to missing out on a starting pitching target by getting rid of another starting pitcher, let alone one as dynamic as Cease. But the reality is that the Padres don't have the money to keep this core together for the long haul, not without Sasaki, and sacrifices are going to have to be made. Like Arraez, Cease is set to be a free agent next winter, and the team can either flip him now for a meaningful return (just like it did with Juan Soto last winter) or resign themselves to losing him for nothing 12 months from now. Given hot red-hot the pitching market has been this offseason, Cease might be too valuable to keep if San Diego doesn't feel like it can catch the Dodgers this year.