3 teams way too high, 3 too low in early CFP National Championship odds for 2025-26

The cigar smoke has hardly cleared from Ohio State's win over Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff national championship game, but while the Buckeyes will spend this week celebrating, the rest of the country has already moved on to dreaming about next year. Ryan Day's revenge tour served as an excellent reminder of just how wide-open this new 12-team playoff format truly is; even if you lose a couple of games, you can still make a run at a title if you get hot at the right time, and that makes handicapping next year's championship contenders all that much more difficult.

Still, we can start to get a lay of the land thanks to our friends in Vegas. And while FanDuel's latest 2025-26 national championship odds feature plenty of usual suspects, there are also some numbers that are bound to rise an eyebrow or two. Here are three teams ranked way too high and three that could prove to be way too low in just a few months.

+450 is way too high for Ohio State

No disrespect to the defending champs, who figure to once again be among the Big Ten's best with Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs back for another year. But at these odds, there's simply too much uncertainty around Ryan Day's Buckeyes: from quarterback, where unproven blue-chipper Julian Sayin looks like the favorite to win the job, to both lines of scrimmage. Add in a season-opener against Texas plus another date with Penn State and road trips to Illinois and Michigan, and another two-loss season isn't totally out of the question. And even if Ohio State makes it back to the College Football Playoff, a repeat feels too far-fetched.

+1800 is way too low for Clemson

The Tigers bring back most of an offense that could take off in year three under Garrett Riley, with Cade Klubnik back at the controls throwing to what should be a dynamite group of receivers. And if big offseason acquisition Tom Allen can get the most out of what was a very young defense in 2025, the sky could be the limit — especially in a soft ACC. SEC showdowns with LSU and South Carolina to bookend the schedule is tough, but in between, the toughest tests this team will face are road trips to Georgia Tech and Louisville; few teams combine championship-level talent with such an easy path to the Playoff. Dabo Swinney has been dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century, and his team could reap the benefits.

+1600 is way too high for Alabama

The Tide are always talented, and 2025 will be no exception. But at +1600, they have the third-shortest odds of any SEC team, behind only Texas and Georgia, and I'm not quite sure Kalen DeBoer has earned that sort of benefit of the doubt just yet. For starters, the schedule features trips to Georgia, South Carolina and Auburn, in addition to home dates with Tennessee and LSU; the path to a first-round bye in the CFP will be a rugged one.

And even beyond the schedule game, there are serious questions about this roster — beginning at quarterback, where Ty Simpson, Austin Mack and Keelon Russell will be battling it out for the starting job. We have no idea how that transition will go, or whether a defense that was a little too glitchy in 2024 will rebound despite losing some key pieces. Alabama will always be in it, but this is a little rich for my blood considering how easy it is to imagine things going wrong.

+4000 is way too low for South Carolina

We're definitely running the risk of getting a little too high on the Gamecocks in 2025, but this is an awfully friendly price. The schedule is rugged, but could be worse, with no Georgia or Texas and both Alabama and Clemson coming to Columbia. Road trips at Ole Miss, LSU and Texas A&M loom, but we know the CFP committee is willing to give this conference a mulligan or three.

And if South Carolina wins 10 games and gets into the Playoff, look out. LaNorris Sellers seems ticketed for stardom after his scintillating close to 2024, and while the defense loses a good deal of talent, there's still plenty of depth to work with (and star freshman edge rusher Dylan Stewart could be among the best defensive players in the country). Again, there are questions to answer here; but at +4000, I'm willing to bet on Sellers figuring them out.

+3500 is way too high for Michigan

Granted, +3500 still gives you some juice, but it's awfully hard to understand why this Michigan team would have the 13th-shortest odds to win next year's national title. This team could hardly pass the ball this season, and while landing Bryce Underwood was a huge coup for Sherrone Moore long-term, he's still going to be a true freshman this fall. And there's also the question of who exactly he'll have to throw to, given that this receiver room is more or less barren and star tight end Colston Loveland is off to the NFL.

If the Wolverines have any shot of winning the Big Ten, much less a national title, their defense is going to have to carry them. But Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant will leave big shoes to fill on in the interior, and star corner Will Johnson is gone too. The schedule isn't too tough, but there are still road trips to Oklahoma, Nebraska and USC in addition to the date with Ohio State.

+12000 is way too low for Baylor

If you're looking for next year's Arizona State, look no further. Okay, so maybe Baylor isn't starting from the depths that the Sun Devils were, but the rest of it checks out thanks to a dynamite offense that caught fire down the stretch last season and a more-than-manageable Big 12 schedule that includes Auburn and SMU in the non-con but misses Colorado, BYU and Iowa State entirely. Sawyer Robertson and Bryson Washington are among the best QB-RB duos you haven't yet heard of, and if Dave Aranda can just keep the defense above water, the Bears could make a ton of noise.