For an NBA regular season that came with so many twists and turns, it was fitting that the final week before the playoffs carried so much suspense. Half a dozen Western Conference teams were in contention for seeds 3-8 with just a few games to go, and there was drama up until the final day to see not only which teams would lock down which seeds, but which ones would be able to avoid the play-in tournament.
Only the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Houston Rockets were able to coast to the finish line in the West, while everyone else was left to fight for their lives. The Los Angeles Lakers did enough, thanks to a tiebreaker advantage over every other contender and a few key late wins, to lock down third place, but they still had to play the waiting game until the final day to see who their opponent would be.
Last week, we looked at which teams the Lakers would like to face and which ones they'd probably rather avoid. Of the five possibilities, they ended up with what we believe is the second-toughest first-round draw in the Minnesota Timberwolves. They missed out on seeing the two teams that fired their coach in the final two weeks of the season, the Denver Nuggets and the Memphis Grizzlies, who finished fourth and eighth, respectively.
The NBA got its wish to have some juicy first-round matchups, but that's not exactly great news for the Lakers. Here are three reasons why.
The Timberwolves are not your typical No. 6 seed
Many times, the No. 6 seed is a team that limped into the playoffs, but the Wolves are different. Minnesota struggled for much of the year as they adjusted to life with Julius Randle and without Karl-Anthonhy Towns, but they're peaking at the right time. They won eight of nine to close the year and avoid the play-in, and only four teams (the Thunder, Celtics, Warriors and Cavs) have a better record than they do since the All-Star break.
The Wolves also have more recent playoff experience than you'd want to see in a first-round opponent, as they made a surprising run to the Western Conference Finals last year. That included a Game 7 win at the defending champion Nuggets and three-time MVP Nikola Jokić.
Minnesota is better than their record suggests, as they're second in the West and fourth in the league in net rating. The Lakers spent much of the year in the red despite a winning record, but even a stronger second half only left them 14th in the league.
The Lakers have home-court advantage, but there's a good argument to be made that the Wolves should be the favorites based on all of the above.
The Wolves have the edge in several key areas
All of the above is true, but it doesn't address any particular on-court advantages the Wolves have. Unfortunately for the Lakers, there are a few of them.
The Lakers, shockingly, went through a prolonged stretch where they were the best defensive team in the league. That coincided with the December trade for Dorian Finney-Smith and the season debut of Jarred Vanderbilt in January, but they weren't able to keep it going through the end of the season, as they finished 17th in team defensive rating. The Wolves were first in the league last year, and sixth this year.
Rudy Gobert has four Defensive Player of the Year awards for a reason, and though he can be susceptible to getting lured outside by Luka Dončić, his rim protection is going to make life difficult for the Lakers in the lane. Anthony Edwards is a rare superstar that welcomes the challenge of taking on the opposing team's top scorer, and Jaden McDaniels can switch onto anyone.
The Wolves are also a better rebounding team. That begins with Gobert, but Naz Reid and Julius Randle are also more physical than anybody the Lakers have down low. Minnesota's big paint advantage means that the Lakers will need to win the 3-point battle and/or dominate at the line.
Lastly, the Wolves have a coach in Chris Finch that has playoff experience. JJ Redick has expertly steered the ship in his first year in charge, but can he do it in the playoffs? We're about to find out.
Anthony Edwards is a bad man
The more aggressive, confident team usually wins in the postseason, which is why this matchup promises to be so fascinating. The Lakers have Luka Dončić and LeBron James. The Wolves have Anthony Edwards. That may sound like advantage Lakers, but this will do nothing but motivate Ant-Man.
The NBA is filled with the best players in the world. That being said, there's not a single one that's more confident than Anthony Edwards. In the Netflix documentary Starting 5, he said, “Yeah, I wanna cook LeBron one-on-one. Like, who don’t? If you say you don’t… then you don’t wanna compete.”
When Edwards was at the Paris Olympics, he challenged the USA women's table tennis team to a match, which he seriously thought he could win. The Ringer's Bill Simmons has a running joke that Edwards believes he could be the starting quarterback on the Vikings, the starting center fielder on the Twins, you name it.
All this is to say that Edwards isn't going to back down from Luka or LeBron. This series has six or seven games written all over it, and the Lakers will need to be at their best to come out on top.