Just three teams have ever won the NCAA Tournament while seeded lower than second, and so far all three of those were No. 3 seeds. The deeper we get into the tournament, the fewer upsets we seem to get.
In fact, think about it this way. The last time a No. 1 overall seed lost in the Sweet 16 was in 2021. They've lost before and after that point since, but the past four tournaments have seen just one No. 1 seed — NC State — lose in the Sweet 16.
That doesn't mean upsets can't happen though. Here are the three No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in most danger of being upset in the Sweet 16.
USC
Three of the No. 1 seeds should roll to victory in the Sweet 16, but a major injury has USC on the ropes.
Losing JuJu Watkins, who is almost universally acknowledged as the best player in college basketball, is a huge blow to the title chances for the Trojans, who will now be forced to rely heavily on Kiki Iriafen.
Not that Iriafen won't be up to the task. The former Stanford Cardinal set a season-high in scoring in the second round win over Mississippi State, stepping up immediately once Watkins went down and taking over the team.
Still, the injury means that this team no longer has a huge advantage out on the wing heading into the matchup with Kansas State, which is going to make it important that some combination of Iriafen and Rayah Marshall can slow down Kansas State center Ayoka Lee.
Lee missed most of the second half of the year with a fractured foot, but returned on the first weekend of the tournament and didn't seem like she'd missed a beat. There were a few times in the second round against Kentucky where she didn't gather the entry pass as cleanly as you'd like to see, but overall Lee looked like...well, like Ayoka Lee.
If the Trojans can't slow Lee down and also can't find an answer on the outside for Wildcats guard Serena Sundell, Kansas State could be looking at the unlikely upset. The last time a No. 5 seed beat a No. 1 seed in the Sweet 16 was Louisville over Baylor in 2013.
NC State
The last No. 1 seed to lose in the Sweet 16 was NC State in 2021. Now, it's possible that the Wolfpack gets upset again in this round, but this time as a No. 2 seed.
NC State has a really good quartet of players leading the team in Aziaha James, Zoe Brooks, Saniya Rivers and Madison Hayes. A loss in the Sweet 16 is unlikely to be because LSU's defense shuts this group down. It's much more likely to be that a Wolfpack defense ranking 175th in scoring defense is going to struggle to stop the Tigers.
LSU sits at 30-5 on the year and feels a bit underseeded as a No. 3, but that's what will happen when the selection committee doesn't really respect your non-conference schedule.
Putting LSU's strength of schedule concerns aside, this Tigers team ranked fourth in the nation in scoring offense this year, led by three players averaging at least 17 points per game: Flau'Jae Johnson, Aneesah Morrow and Mikaylah Williams.
Kim Mulkey's team ranks ninth in the country in pace. Her teams have always played relatively fast, but LSU has picked that up even more over the last two seasons. The team's ability to get out and run in transition could give NC State fits, though the team has done a good job limiting fast break points so far this season, allowing just 8.3 per game.
TCU
TCU is a No. 2 seed, but the team isn't even favored this weekend, with No. 3 seed Notre Dame being 4.5-point favorites.
Part of that is Notre Dame is underseeded. There were some late struggles for the Irish in the regular season that dropped the team from being a potential No. 1 seed all the way down to the No. 3 line, but this is still the same team that scored wins over USC, Texas and UConn in non-conference.
(It's also the team that lost to TCU in the regular season — more on that in a minute.)
Another reason Notre Dame is favored is that I simply don't think a lot of people trust a TCU squad led by Hailey Van Lith and Sedona Prince to actually be true title contenders, and I totally get that. Those two plus Madison Conner have come up big all year for a three-loss TCU squad, but they also haven't faced as much competition as you might have wanted to see. The team is 1-2 against teams with a top 10 Her Hoop Stats rating and was run out of the gym by South Carolina, losing by 33. Can we trust this Horned Frogs team against elite teams?
This, of course, is where I once again mention that TCU has a win over Notre Dame this season, a 76-68 victory back in November. Prince and Van Lith combined for 41 points with both shooting over 50 percent from the floor. However, it's worth noting that Notre Dame was missing Maddy Westbeld still in that game. Adding her into the picture makes this Notre Dame squad tougher to defend. Add in the amplified importance of this game and the fact that Notre Dame is a more experienced squad when the lights get bright in May, plus that it's really difficult to beat a team a second time, and you can get a sense of why TCU is in danger heading into this one.