The road to the NCAA Tournament is shortening as we are less than a month away from Selection Sunday, leaving precious little time for teams on the bubble to make their case for inclusion into the dance. Most teams have either five or six games left before their conference tournament, and if those games come against teams that are near the bottom of their respective leagues they are a no-win scenario since you're expected to win those games or get crushed if you drop one.
The great equalizer can come in the form of the conference tournament, which provides bubble teams opportunities to beat good teams on a neutral floor, offering that little bit of extra juice necessary to earn inclusion into the field if your regular season performance wasn't quite up to par. We've seen teams use magical runs in the conference tournament to power stunning NCAA Tournament performances (like NC State's run to the Final Four last spring), so getting hot at the right time can be all the difference between showing up on the final weekend of the year or mulling over whether a trip to the NIT is worth your time.
Which teams stand to gain the most from a deep run in their conference tournament? Let's look at four candidates who can significantly improve their March Madness stock by making noise right before Selection Sunday.
North Carolina Tar Heels
The Tar Heels have been down this road before as the 2021-22 campaign saw them squarely on the bubble late into February before a stunning surge that included a win over Duke and one over Virginia in the ACC Tournament landed them in an 8-9 game, setting the stage for a run to the national championship game. This year's North Carolina team has elite scheduling metrics but has a NET of 46 on Feb. 21 due to a lackluster 1-10 record in Quad 1 games.
The lone win that the Tar Heels have against a potential tournament team is against UCLA at Madison Square Garden by a bucket back in December, which isn't good enough to show the committee they warrant inclusion when they have been blown out by the top teams the ACC has to offer. The rest of North Carolina's regular season schedule won't do much to bolster their resume outside of a road trip to No. 3 Duke, meaning the ACC Tournament is where the Tar Heels will need to do their heavy lifting.
Assuming they win the rest of their games outside of the Blue Devils' contest, UNC would head to Charlotte with a 20-12 record and a presumed 1-11 record in Quad 1 games. Staying in the Top 6 would mean the Tar Heels would likely win a first-round game against a bottom tier opponent before looking at a path of Louisville-Clemson-Duke to the title game if chalk holds. Winning the first two of those games and playing Duke competitively would probably be enough for the committee to push the Tar Heels into the first four, especially given the power of their brand, which shouldn't be a factor in the conversation but will likely have a subconscious effect on the members of the committee.
Oklahoma Sooners
No one's stock has taken a bigger hit since the calendar flipped to January than Oklahoma, which went a perfect 13-0 in the non-conference portion of the season (with good wins against Arizona, Louisville and Michigan to boot) but has been routinely demolished in SEC play. The Sooners are just 3-10 in SEC games and have made a habit of getting blown out by the top teams in their conference, leaving them looking like a paper tiger that the committee can easily leave out of the field.
With four ranked teams and a game against fellow bubbler Texas left in the regular season, there are plenty of opportunities for the Sooners to right the ship but expecting more than a 2-3 performance seems like a lot given how mediocre Oklahoma has looked for the past two months. The dreadful start to SEC play means that Oklahoma will be towards the bottom of the tournament bracket, which is fantastic for a Sooners team that needs to stack up some good wins to regain good will with the committee.
As the current 14-seed in the SEC, Oklahoma's path through the tournament would start with a first-round game against Texas before taking on Tennessee, Alabama, Florida and Auburn if chalk holds. Getting to the semifinals would give the Sooners three more Quad 1 wins and who they can hold their own against tournament-caliber competition, ending potential questions about their non-conference strength of schedule and poor SEC performance to this point.
Xavier Musketeers
While the Big East looks like a lock to send four teams dancing, there is still an outside shot that the league can send a fifth program with Xavier. There have been flashes of brilliance from the X-men, who boast a road win at Marquette and took down UCONN at home, but bad road losses to TCU and Georgetown have been a major drag to the Musketeers' resume.
Like North Carolina, Xavier is mediocre against the top of the bracket, entering Feb. 21st with a record of 1-9 against Quad 1 foes. There is only one real opportunity for a Quad 1 win left on Xavier's regular season schedule (vs. Creighton on March 1st), meaning they will have some work to do entering the Big East Tournament.
Remaining in the 4-5 game is imperative for Xavier, who would likely open the Big East Tournament against a vulnerable UCONN side before having a path of St. John's and Marquette or Creighton to win the tournament if chalk held. Getting three Quad 1 wins (vs. Creighton on 3/1 and reaching the final of the Big East Tournament) could be enough to push the X-men into the field on Selection Sunday.
Georgia Bulldogs
The SEC's minefield has bogged down several potential tournament teams, including Georgia, which has some work to do to make the field. The highlights of the Bulldogs' resume include a home win over Kentucky and a win in the Bahamas against St. John's in November, which has aged incredibly well, but a 2-10 mark against Quad 1 competition likely won't be enough to get in even against a weak bubble field.
There are still multiple Quad 1 opportunities left on Georgia's regular season schedule, but expecting more than a 3-2 mark seems tough when the next two games on their slate include a trip to Auburn and a visit from Florida. The SEC Tournament will provide some meaningful opportunities for Georgia to enhance their resume, which could be valuable for a team that needs to demonstrate it can win big games away from home.
As the current 12-seed, Georgia could enhance its odds significantly by knocking off fellow bubbler Arkansas to start the tournament. The chalk path would then see the Bulldogs slated to see Missouri, Texas A&M, Auburn and Florida, so a run to the semifinals would give Georgia another three Quad 1 wins and set themselves up for an at-large selection to March Madness.