March Madness 2025 Bubble Watch: First four out, last four in on Feb. 19

The college basketball season is winding down and the road to March Madness is starting to take shape. While Saturday's Top 16 seed reveal showcased what the top of the bracket looked like, it didn't provide a complete picture of what the Selection Committee is looking for as they look to choose the last few teams to make the field of 68.

The Top 16 did provide a few hints, however, with a notable emphasis on SEC teams claiming five of the top six slots in the exercise. Those teams have racked up quality wins and played strong schedules, two key factors that can help separate teams on the bubble from each other down the line. League affiliation is not considered as an official criteria for the committee, so fans of teams near the cut line in the SEC shouldn't assume an automatic benefit from playing in the same league as some of the country's best programs.

Earning quality wins, like BYU did with a demolition of No. 23 Kansas on Tuesday night that left the Jayhawks embarrassed, can go a long way towards boosting your odds of making the field on Selection Sunday. How much did the Cougars boost their stock compared to their appearance in last week's Bubble Watch? Read on to find out with the latest look at the teams closest to the cutline.

Note: Records, metrics and NET rankings are current through the completion of games on Feb. 18. All strength of schedule metrics are based on KenPom's totals. Teams in first place in their respective conferences are considered automatic qualifiers and are not eligible for this edition of Bubble Watch.

March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four Byes

Nebraska stormed back from a huge second half deficit to win at Northwestern and avoid a bad loss, keeping them just above the bubble fray for now. Avoiding bad losses, like one at Penn State on Wednesday, is important work to enhance a resume that is defined by six Quad 1 wins.

A thumping of No. 23 Kansas on Tuesday night did a lot for BYU, which improved five spots in the NET rankings and added a fourth Quad 1 victory to its ledger. With a very shaky non-conference strength of schedule, the Cougars need wins like those to strengthen their case with the selection committee.

Things are trending in the wrong direction for West Virginia, which has dropped six of eight to slip from a relatively safe position to a much more uncomfortable one. While the early work the Mountaineers did (including five Quad 1 wins has them in a good spot, they still have to stop the bleeding soon to avoid putting themselves further at risk.

Vanderbilt has a very quiet five Quad 1 wins but a weak non-conference schedule (345 according to KenPom) and a lack of quality wins away from home leave them a bit vulnerable. Finding a way to take down Kentucky at Rupp Arena would be massive as it would allow the Commodores to sweep the Wildcats and secure a sixth Quad 1 win in the process.

March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four In

Things are looking good for San Diego State, which boasts four Quad 1 wins and an elite non-conference strength of schedule to offset a so-so NET. Two big opportunities await the Aztecs in their next two games (at Utah State on Saturday and hosting New Mexico the following week), so securing a split in those games might be enough to lock up a bid if they take care of the rest of their business.

A bad A-10 has left VCU in win compilation mode (11 of their 20 victories are of the Quad 4 variety) but this team has a respectable NET and passes the eye test with flying colors. Given how putrid the bubble is, it would be hard to deny a potential 25+ win Rams side over some of the slop that the power conferences are providing as legitimate at-large candidates.

The team in the most danger of falling out of the field entirely is Oklahoma, whose 13-0 start is a distant memory thanks to an abysmal 3-10 SEC record that includes a five-game skid lowlighted by a home defeat to LSU, one of the two SEC schools with no shot at an at-large. Wins over Michigan and Louisville in the non-conference season have aged well but seeing the Sooners blown off the floor by any competent SEC team is a problem, leaving Saturday's home tilt against No. 21 Mississippi State a must-win to stay in the field.

The last team in here is Wake Forest, which bounced back from a bad loss to Florida State by winning on the road by 11 against bubble rival SMU. A big opportunity to snag a Quad 1A win at Duke is coming in early March but for now the Demon Deacons can stay on the right side of the cut line by taking care of business against the ACC's bottom feeders over their next three games.

March Madness Bubble Watch - First Four Out

The Bulldogs are a victim of Oklahoma's continued stumbles as their home victory over the Sooners no longer qualifies as a Quad 1 win, leaving only a home victory over Kentucky and a win over St. John's in November in the Bahamas as the selling point of Georgia's resume. 10 Quad 1 losses is a lot to swallow so Georgia could really use a big win over a top team soon to remind the committee why they should be included in the field.

Xavier bounced back from a bad loss against Villanova to take care of business against Butler, but a 1-9 record in Quad 1 games is a detriment in a bad Big East. A date with Creighton is the X-men's only chance to add another Quad 1 win to their ledger before the conference tournament but they first have to worry about avoiding a disastrous loss at Seton Hall, which recently picked off UCONN.

Arkansas is trending in the right direction but three Quad 1 wins and a non-conference strength of schedule nearing 250 is a bit light in the resume department. A 3-3 split over their final six games would likely add a few more wins to the Razorbacks' Quad 1 total and set up a very interesting run in the SEC Tournament for them.

The big bubble loser of last weekend was SMU, which lost at home to fellow bubbler Wake Forest by 11, and remains without a Quad 1 victory heading into late February. Although the computers like the Mustangs, their only shot at a Quad 1 win the rest of the way comes against No. 18 Clemson on Saturday, leaving a bunch of landmines to avoid in their other five games.

March Madness Bubble Watch - Next Four Out

Barely winning at Syracuse doesn't do much for North Carolina, which has elite scheduling metrics but saw its only Quad 1 win come by a bucket against UCLA at Madison Square Garden in December. The Tar Heels need to show an ability to hang against elite competition to earn entry to the dance, whether that comes by winning at Duke to end the regular season or a deep run in the ACC Tournament.

Kansas State surged onto the bubble with an impressive six game-winning streak that included four victories over ranked teams but their streaky nature resurfaced after getting swept on the Utah trip. 13 losses is a lot for a team to carry, especially one with a NET in the 70s, so the Wildcats need to get hot again to make things interesting for themselves in the Big 12 Tournament.

The Big West hasn't secured an at-large to the NCAA Tournament since 2005 but UC San Diego, who we featured last week, and UC Irvine both pass the eye test as quality basketball teams worthy of inclusion. The pair each won on the road, enabling the Anteaters to snag a Quad 1 victory, but the most likely path to a 2-bid Big West is for these two to square off in the conference title game with no further losses between them.

Bradley is in a similar situation as UC Irvine as last weekend's road win at Drake gave them a much-needed Quad 1 victory. The profile is a little worse for the Braves overall, which is why they're behind the Anteaters on this list, but they would have a compelling case if they get to the final of Arch Madness and lose to the Bulldogs as a potential 27-7 Missouri Valley side.