March Madness 2025 Bubble Watch: First four out, last four in on Feb. 12

We will have a bracket in our hands in just over a month from now, so time is running out for teams on the bubble to make their final impressions for the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. Regular readers of FanSided's Bubble Watch know that there is plenty of information for the selection committee to sift through, but one of the most important factors that doesn't receive nearly enough attention is non-conference strength of schedule.

While a program has little control over whether their conference will be as strong as the SEC is this year or as down as the ACC, they can completely dictate who they play in non-conference play. The committee has rewarded teams who have challenged themselves over the years at the expense of teams who simply load up on cupcakes in Quad 4 buy games, but teams (especially in power conferences) often ignore this lesson and assume their league schedule will boost their metrics enough for inclusion.

If your non-conference strength of schedule is higher than 100 and you're in a power conference, you are just asking to get left out of the dance, just like Wake Forest and Pittsburgh were a year ago. Where does your team stand on this week's bubble watch? Read on to find out and pay extra attention to your team's results if their non-conference strength of schedule is very high.

Note: All metrics, NET rankings and records are current through games played on Feb. 11. Strength of schedule figures are based on KenPom's totals. Any team currently leading their conference is assumed to be in the field as an automatic qualifier and is not eligible for this exercise.

March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four Byes

Nebraska is trending in the right direction with four consecutive victories, including a few of the Quad 1 variety to give them five quality wins to showcase to the resume. A non-conference strength of schedule hovering around 250 gives them little margin for error so picking up another good win when No. 25 Maryland comes to town on Thursday would be good for them.

The Mountain West is down but still has two teams in a good position to secure at-large bids with Utah State and San Diego State, with the Aggies posting a gaudy record and three Quad 1 wins while the Aztecs have stumbled a bit more in league play but really challenged themselves outside of the Mountain West. Assuming both teams avoid bad losses to the dregs of the league, they should both hear their names called on Selection Sunday, albeit with a caveat that one of them may have to go through Dayton.

We talked last week about how the SEC will cannibalize itself too much to send 13 teams to the field and its bubble teams have largely similar resumes with poor non-conference strength of schedules and most of their quality wins against their league mates. Oklahoma has four Quad 1 wins, which is good, but a 3-7 record in SEC play combined with a non-conference strength of schedule figure in the 300s leaves them more vulnerable than people think.

March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four In

Vanderbilt is tracking slightly behind Oklahoma on the seed line due to a head-to-head loss to the Sooners along with inferior Quad 1 record and schedule metrics. There are some impressive results on the team page for the Commodores but the league's depth may swallow them alive if they can't pick up a quality road win or too to offset the more questionable aspects of their resume.

The A-10's second team in the field is VCU, which looks impressive in the eye test but has a bad Quad 3 loss on their ledger and has seen its non-conference schedule crater as teams like Seton Hall and Miami have flopped. There is a good chance the Rams can pick up the league's auto-bid and avoid this fate altogether but a failure to snag the A-10 tournament crown could lead to a very nervous wait for them.

Georgia is fading fast as their best win outside of Athens came in a neutral site tilt against St. John's in the Bahamas in November. The Red Storm's surge has been Georgia's meal ticket right now but they really could have used Tuesday night's game at No. 8 Texas A&M as a quality road win, which saw the Bulldogs build an early lead but fail to sustain it when the Aggies went to another gear in the second half.

BYU is the last team in the field right now and has solid enough numbers but is flirting with disaster thanks to a non-conference strength of schedule that ranks 345th out of 353 teams. Saturday night's home game against red-hot Kansas State has become much more interesting since the Wildcats aren't a truly quality win but they are playing well enough to deal the Cougars a very damaging loss to a resume that is on the fringe of the field.

March Madness Bubble Watch - First Four Out

Wake Forest did what they needed to on their California trip but one Quad 1 win, 12 wins outside of the Top 2 quadrants and a non-conference strength of schedule in the 240s doesn't scream tournament team. Holding serve against Florida State is a must before a big game against fellow bubbler SMU at home on Saturday.

Arkansas would be a whopping 14th SEC team (out of 16 total in the league) to make the field but they need to avoid taking on too many more losses with a 3-7 start to league play. Wednesday's home game against LSU, one of two SEC teams that is nowhere near the bubble, qualifies as must-win for the Razorbacks.

The resume that SMU possesses is very similar to Wake Forest's, which makes sense as to why both teams are currently sitting outside the field. Whoever wins Saturday's game could potentially leap into the field by the time we're looking at the Bubble Watch next week if the SEC continues to cannibalize itself.

Xavier's 12-point loss at Villanova last Saturday was a huge blow for the Musketeers, who are sitting on just one Quad 1 win (at Marquette) and now have 10 losses to go along with so-so metrics. There is enough here to keep the X-men right near the cutline but they need to stack wins to avoid Selection Sunday heartbreak.

March Madness Bubble Watch - Next Four Out

Boise State is coming on strong in their bid to be the Mountain West's fourth tournament team with non-conference wins over Clemson and St. Mary's serving as the anchors of their bid. Picking up victories against the Mountain West's top three teams, beginning Saturday with a trip to San Diego State before hosting New Mexico next Wednesday, would do a lot for the Broncos.

Going 2-8 over 10 games in a mediocre ACC will all but kill your at-large chances and Pitt is in the middle of an awful stretch that most recently saw them lose by 20 at fellow bubbler SMU. With only one game against a potential tournament team left on their schedule (at Louisville on March 1), the Panthers have to find a way to right the ship and position themselves to make some noise in the conference tournament.

UC San Diego is making a push to give the Big West a second tournament team after securing a season split with fellow 20-win team UC Irvine in their last game. There is a sneaky good win at Utah State on the Tritons' resume to pair with the road win at Irvine but given the state of the Big West (a true low major) and the fact that two of UC San Diego's wins came against non-DI schools, they will need to keep stacking wins to have a shot at making the Big West a two-bid league.

North Carolina got drilled at No. 23 Clemson on Monday and is now 1-10 in Quad 1 games, which shows they scheduled hard but also shows they aren't capable of winning the types of games you would face in the NCAA Tournament. The only reason the Tar Heels are on this page is because of their brand name (which the committee won't admit), but if this resume was assigned to a team like Georgia Tech they would be nowhere near this page.