March Madness 2025 Bubble Watch: First four out, last four in on Feb. 5

We are approaching the stretch run of the college basketball season and in the worlds of the immortal Yogi Berra, "it gets late early out there" if you're on the March Madness bubble. There are still five and a half weeks until Selection Sunday, but teams sitting on the bubble have about a third of their season left to make up for questionable resumes built over the first three months of the season.

A good example of this phenomenon lies with North Carolina, which has had a tendency to ride the bubble throughout Hubert Davis' tenure as head coach. 2022 saw a late season surge help the Tar Heels snag an eight seed and go all the way to the national championship game while a poor finish in 2023 left North Carolina out of March Madness entirely, making them the first preseason No. 1 team to miss the field since the tournament expanded to 64 teams back in 1985.

While 2024 saw North Carolina comfortably reach March Madness as a No. 1 seed, this season is more like Davis' first two years, with the Tar Heels hovering around the cutline with work to do ahead of March. Where do the Tar Heels stand right now? Read on to find out in the latest edition of FanSided's Bubble Watch.

Note: All records and metrics (including NET rankings) are up-to-date through games played on Tuesday, Feb. 4. Strength of schedule figures are provided from KenPom. Any team currently leading its conference is considered an automatic qualifier and is not eligible for this week's post, which is why Drake (which has been featured in the past two weeks) isn't listed after taking over first place in the Missouri Valley Conference over the weekend.

March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four Byes

The Mountain West certainly won't get six teams into the field again but San Diego State is well positioned to claim an at-large bid for the conference. The Aztecs have played a very strong schedule and are in good shape with three Quad 1 wins, but navigating the rest of their league slate will offer challenges to avoid losing games that offer little to gain but have big danger potential, like Saturday's road tilt against a talented Colorado State squad.

Oklahoma got run off the floor by No. 1 Auburn, which surely didn't help the Sooners in the eye test department, but their losses are all of the Quad 1 variety while wins over Louisville and Arizona in November are aging very well. The schedule is going to get tougher for Oklahoma as Saturday's home matchup against No. 4 Tennessee kicks off a stretch run where seven of the Sooners' next eight games come against ranked foes. Going 4-4 over that stretch would likely be enough to keep the Sooners in this section of the bracket.

While a 13-9 record doesn't look great, Ohio State has made up for it with four Quad 1 wins and excellent schedule metrics, putting them in a good spot as of now. If the Buckeyes can upset No. 18 Maryland on Thursday they can start shifting to win accumulation mode with only currently ranked team left on their remaining schedule.

Vanderbilt's loss by 30 at Oklahoma on Saturday was ugly and puts them behind the Sooners on the S-curve but the Commodores looked much more competent in an 11-point defeat at No. 6 Florida. There is not a lot of wiggle room here for Vanderbilt and their schedule is about to get very difficult, so picking up a home win against Texas on Saturday would be smart ahead of a stretch of six straight games agaisnt ranked teams.

March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four In

The SEC is highly unlikely to send 13 teams to the field, as ESPN's Joe Lunardi currently projects, since the league's depth will lead to teams on the bubble getting cannibalized. Georgia is vulnerable because the entirety of their argument to get in the field rests on a week when they beat Kentucky and Oklahoma at home to go along with a win over St. John's in the Bahamas in November. A bad non-conference strength of schedule has left little margin of error for the Bulldogs, who have to beat LSU and start picking up more quality wins to feel safe.

Nobody had a bigger boost in bubble land last week than Nebraska, which earned two Quad 1 wins by beating No. 18 Illinois at home and then going on the road to beat No. 16 Oregon. Finishing off this trip with a win at Washington is a necessary step for the Cornhuskers, who can't afford to undo the good will of the past two games with a loss to one of the Big Ten's worst teams.

BYU is building a compiler's resume as they didn't beat anyone of note outside Big 12 play (and added a bad loss at Providence by 19 to boot) while hovering around .500 in league play to bolster their overall strength of schedule figures. The best result that the Cougars have produced thus far is a four-point home win over Baylor, but if they can avoid bad losses to fellow bubblers (like Saturday's visit to Cincinnati) or Big 12 doormats they should be able to maintain this spot for now.

The last team in the field is Xavier, who are rooting hard for UCONN to turn their season around so their home victory over the Huskies turns into a second Quad 1 win. With the Big East's best teams behind them, the Musketeers can enhance their resume by stacking wins, with Sunday's tilt at Villanova being a dangerous game they can't afford to lose to stay on the right side of the cut line.

March Madness Bubble Watch - First Four Out

When you're hovering around the cutline, losing by 16 points at home to a Virginia team that entered the game with a 10-12 record is an absolute no-no. Pittsburgh did just that and is out of the field for now, putting themselves in a spot where they have to win at North Carolina on Saturday to avoid slipping further down the cut line.

There is a lot to like for UCF, highlighted by three Quad 1 wins (including an opening-night triumph over Texas A&M that is a crown jewel on their team sheet), but the eight losses they have has hurt them to this point. The good news is that if the Knights can go 2-1 over their next three (Cincinnati, At Baylor, Vs. No. 8 Iowa State) they have a good opportunity to stack victories over their next six games against Big 12 sides who aren't going to sniff the tournament (Colorado, Oklahoma State twice, Utah, TCU, Kansas State) and make a run at 20 wins before the season is over.

Arizona State's scheduling numbers are elite but 10 losses is a drawback, especially when one of them comes at home to a Kansas State side that isn't even close to the bubble. There are opportunities still here for the Sun Devils to add more Quad 1 wins to offset their losses, but avoiding bad defeats (such as Saturday at Oklahoma State) is imperative.

Last up in this section is Wake Forest, which has an empty-calorie resume highlighted by victories against Pittsburgh and North Carolina at home by a combined three points. That won't be good enough out of a mediocre ACC so the Demon Deacons need to stack some wins now before they get an opportunity to change their narrative with a road win at Duke later in the season.

March Madness Bubble Watch - Next Four Out

USC has popped onto the radar with some impressive results of late, such as a road win at Illinois and beating No. 7 Michigan State at home last week, but they couldn't build that momentum by dropping a road game at Northwestern. Three Quad 1 wins is nothing to sneeze at but with nine losses (including a bad one at home against Cal in November), finding ways to add more quality wins (like say, winning at No. 7 Purdue on Friday night) is a good idea if you're buying Trojans stock.

The box score may say that North Carolina lost at No. 2 Duke by 17 on Saturday night but the game was never that close. While the metrics are favorable to North Carolina, including elite scheduling numbers and a decent enough NET, the Tar Heels simply have to win games against tournament-worthy competition since the committee will want to put this team in based on its talent level and the name on the front of their jerseys. Stopping the bleeding with a home win against Pitt on Saturday is essential for the Tar Heels, who are already sitting at 10 losses (even with nine of them coming against Quad 1 foes).

VCU is the A-10's best chance at an at-large and they look the part of a tournament team based on both its NET ranking and the eye-test. Bad scheduling numbers and a few questionable losses (falling at Seton Hall in non-conference play has been a big drag on their team sheet as a Quad 3 loss) are hurting the Rams, who need to stack as many A-10 wins as possible (remember, they already have two losses in league play), beginning on Friday night with a tough trip to Dayton.

SMU's tournament resume is a poor man's version of Wake Forest's with the notable difference being that the Demon Deacons at least have a Quad 1 win while the Mustangs have none. There will be some opportunities to change that soon with home games against Pitt, Wake Forest and Clemson on tap in their next five, but the first order of business will be to avoid dropping a bad game at Virginia Tech on Wednesday night.