March Madness 2025 Bubble Watch: First four out, Last four in on Jan. 29
The bubble is always moving in college basketball and the best way to position yourselves for the NCAA Tournament is to deliver big results to move yourself off the bubble and into the field. Vanderbilt has heeded that advice well, as they were positioned in the last four byes in last week's Bubble Watch and built their resume with a win over then-No. 9 Kentucky at home on Saturday.
That victory helped the Commodores get back into the AP Top 25 for the first time in almost a decade, but how did it impact their positioning on the bubble. Read on to see how Vanderbilt and the other bubblers stand in this week's edition of the FanSided Bubble Watch, the final one for the month of January.
Note: All records, NET Rankings and metrics are current through games played on Jan. 28. Strength of schedule figures are based on KenPom's figures. Teams currently in first place in their conference are considered an automatic qualifier and are not eligible for this week's Bubble Watch.
March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four Byes
Team | Vanderbilt | Oklahoma | Georgia | Texas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | SEC | SEC | SEC | SEC |
Record | 16-4 (4-3) | 15-5 (2-5) | 15-6 (3-5) | 14-6 (3-4) |
NET | 38 | 46 | 35 | 32 |
Quad 1 Record | 3-3 | 4-4 | 2-6 | 3-5 |
Quad 2 Record | 2-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 2-1 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 11-0 | 10-0 | 11-0 | 9-0 |
Strength Of Schedule | 99 | 61 | 46 | 62 |
Non-Conference Strength Of Schedule | 348 | 333 | 308 | 351 |
Last Game | W 74-69 Vs. No. 9 Kentucky | L 75-66 At No. 13 Texas A&M | W 71-60 Vs. South Carolina | W 70-69 Vs. No. 13 Texas A&M |
Next Game | At Oklahoma 2/1 | Vs. No. 24 Vanderbilt 2/1 | At No. 4 Alabama 2/1 | At No. 23 Ole Miss 1/29 |
The SEC is dominating this section of Bubble Watch with Vanderbilt and Oklahoma a cut above the rest of the pack thanks to strong Quad 1 records (3-3 for Vandy and 4-4 for the Sooners) with league play bringing up both of their strength of schedule figures. Saturday's showdown in Norman will push the winner safely into the main field while the loser should stay in this space next week.
Georgia was a fun story after they upset Kentucky a few weeks ago but reality hit hard with a four-game losing streak in league play, including one they'd like to have back at Arkansas. Beating South Carolina was important for the Bulldogs to snap their skid but they need a few more Quad 1 wins to improve their position, with Saturday's trip to No. 4 Alabama offering a massive opportunity on that front.
Texas has quietly stabilized in Big 12 play and scored a nice victory over No. 13 Texas A&M to add a third Quad 1 victory to their ledger. A trip to No. 23 Ole Miss is certainly gettable for the Longhorns, who have a good shot to make the field safely if they end up around .500 in SEC play.
March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four In
Team | Ohio State | Pittsburgh | Xavier | North Carolina |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | Big Ten | ACC | Big East | ACC |
Record | 12-8 (4-5) | 14-6 (5-4) | 13-8 (5-5) | 13-9 (6-4) |
NET | 28 | 34 | 54 | 42 |
Quad 1 Record | 3-6 | 1-6 | 1-6 | 1-8 |
Quad 2 Record | 2-2 | 4-0 | 4-2 | 4-1 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 7-0 | 9-0 | 8-0 | 8-0 |
Strength Of Schedule | 10 | 31 | 38 | 9 |
Non-Conference Strength Of Schedule | 85 | 72 | 250 | 7 |
Last Game | W 82-65 Vs. Iowa | W 73-65 Vs. North Carolina | W 76-72 Vs. No. 19 UCONN | L 73-65 At Pittsburgh |
Next Game | At Penn State 1/30 | At Wake Forest 2/1 | At Creighton 1/29 | At No. 2 Duke 2/1 |
No team made a bigger jump this week than Ohio State, which is in the field after following up a road win at then-No. 11 Purdue with a blowout of Iowa at home. The Buckeyes can add that Purdue win to victories against Kentucky (at Madison Square Garden by 20) and Texas for three impressive Quad 1 wins but their eight losses leave them vulnerable to getting passed, making Thursday's game at Penn State an important one for them to snag.
Pitt's win over North Carolina on Sunday pushed them firmly past the Tar Heels on the S-curve, but their 1-6 record in Quad 1 games is nothing to write home about. Saturday's trip to Wake Forest is an important one for bubblers to watch as the Demon Deacons are vying to leapfrog into the field and a win over the Panthers would be a big help to their cause.
The X-men scored a huge home win over then-No. 19 UCONN on Saturday night but the Huskies' recent skid means it only counts on Xavier's team sheet as a Quad 2 result, which is unfortunate for a resume in need of Quad 1 heft. While a UCONN turnaround would help Xavier, the Musketeers need to help themselves by finding a way to win at Creighton on Wednesday.
The fact that North Carolina is still on this side of the bubble is a recognition that their schedule numbers are elite and their brand recognition will likely carry some weight with the selection committee, even though it shouldn't. 8 Quad 1 losses is too many, however, and the Tar Heels really need a good result against a potential tournament team (like say, winning at No. 2 Duke on Saturday) to demonstrate they should be a tournament team.
March Madness Bubble Watch - First Four Out
Team | UCF | Indiana | Nebraska | Arizona State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | Big 12 | Big Ten | Big Ten | Big 12 |
Record | 13-7 (4-5) | 14-7 (5-5) | 12-8 (2-7) | 12-8 (3-6) |
NET | 62 | 68 | 64 | 58 |
Quad 1 Record | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-6 | 2-7 |
Quad 2 Record | 0-1 | 2-0 | 3-1 | 4-1 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 10-0 | 10-0 | 8-1 | 6-0 |
Strength Of Schedule | 13 | 30 | 33 | 6 |
Non-Conference Strength Of Schedule | 169 | 171 | 238 | 32 |
Last Game | L 91-87 At No. 11 Kansas | L 79-78 Vs. Maryland | L 83-55 At No. 18 Wisconsin | W 70-68 At Colorado |
Next Game | Vs. BYU 2/1 | At No. 10 Purdue 1/31 | Vs. No. 18 Illinois 1/30 | Vs. Arizona 2/1 |
UCF played No. 11 Kansas hard at Allen Fieldhouse but fell by four points, which is a bummer for a resume that would have gotten a massive lift from a road win at the Phog. There is a lot to like here for the Knights, whose three Quad 1 wins are the best of anyone in this section, but all they can do for now is hold serve in games they should win, like Saturday's home date with BYU.
Dropping a home game against Maryland was a blow to Indiana, which has been a solid team all season long but only has two Quad 1 wins to show for their efforts. Friday night's trip to No. 10 Purdue is a good show-me spot for the Hoosiers, who can demonstrate they belong with a competitive effort even if they don't pick up a win.
Getting blown out at No. 18 Wisconsin is a bad look for a Nebraska team whose claim to fame is a victory at Creighton, the only Quad 1 victory for a team that has dropped six straight. The Cornhuskers' vaunted home court advantage has also disappeared and re-establishing it against No. 18 Illinois on Thursday would be massive for their March Madness hopes.
Arizona State's resume is intriguing with strong schedule metrics and a pair of Quad 1 wins but having their signature win come against either New Mexico or West Virginia doesn't mean much. Saturday's showdown with in-state rival Arizona is much more important for the Sun Devils, who need to demonstrate they can beat some of the best teams the Big 12 has to offer.
March Madness Bubble Watch - Next Four Out
Team | Wake Forest | Drake | Dayton | SMU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | ACC | Missouri Valley | Atlantic 10 | ACC |
Record | 15-6 (7-3) | 18-2 (8-2) | 14-7 (4-4) | 15-5 (6-3) |
NET | 71 | 66 | 75 | 43 |
Quad 1 Record | 1-6 | 2-0 | 2-2 | 0-4 |
Quad 2 Record | 2-0 | 1-1 | 1-4 | 3-1 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 12-0 | 13-1 | 10-1 | 12-0 |
Strength Of Schedule | 56 | 223 | 75 | 93 |
Non-Conference Strength Of Schedule | 240 | 273 | 66 | 253 |
Last Game | L 72-59 At No. 21 Louisville | W 69-62 At Missouri State | L 75-53 At St. Bonaventure | W 63-57 At NC State |
Next Game | Vs. Pittsburgh 2/1 | Vs. Northern Iowa 1/29 | At St. Louis 1/31 | Vs. California 1/29 |
Wake Forest has had plenty of opportunities to make statements but has blown most of them, going 1-6 in Quad 1 games after losing by 13 at No. 21 Louisville. With only four games left against potential tournament teams on their schedule, the Demon Deacons need to seize those opportunities (including Saturday's home date against fellow bubbler Pitt) and stack wins against the rest of their mediocre league.
We'll continue pounding the drum for Drake here, which has more Quad 1 victories than six teams on this page (including North Carolina, Pittsburgh and Nebraska) and is penalized for a bad start to MVC play which added a bad Quad 3 loss to their ledger. The Bulldogs can make a case for themselves by simply running up a gaudy win total, daring the committee to ignore a potential 28-win team (if they lose in Arch Madness) in favor of an underachieving power conference team.
Losing by 22 at St. Bonaventure is a bad look for Dayton, which has shown the ability to beat top teams but also is capable of playing down to its competition. There is little martin for error here in the A-10, which has become a one-bid league, and beating St. Louis convincingly would be a good bounce back for the Flyers.
Last up is SMU, which is trying to stack empty calorie wins to make up for their lack of Quad 1 wins. There are a few opportunities ahead for the Mustangs to change that, but avoiding bad losses (such as a home date against Cal on Wednesday) is important as well.
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