March Madness 2025 Bubble Watch: First four out, Last four in on Jan. 22
Time flies in the college basketball season and FanSided's Bubble Watch is changing quickly. Each week provides new opportunities for teams to enhance their resumes, as Vanderbilt did with an upset over No. 6 Tennessee, and separate themselves from what appears to be a very soft bubble in comparison to this point last season.
While it is a bit early to see whether or not bid thieves will shrink the bubble enough to make it more firm, there is still plenty of time for teams on this page to get themselves into a better position and teams who didn't make the list to join the fun. Let's take a look at the latest Bubble Watch situation as we are rapidly approaching the end of January.
Note: All rankings and records are up to date after the conclusion of the games on January 21st. Strength of schedule figures are based on KenPom's totals. Any team currently leading their conference is considered an automatic qualifier and is not eligible for this exercise.
March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four Byes
Team | UCLA | Vanderbilt | North Carolina | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | Big Ten | SEC | ACC | SEC |
Record | 13-6 (4-4) | 15-4 (3-3) | 12-8 (5-3) | 14-4 (1-4) |
NET | 35 | 37 | 38 | 49 |
Quad 1 Record | 4-4 | 2-3 | 1-7 | 3-3 |
Quad 2 Record | 1-2 | 2-1 | 4-0 | 1-1 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 8-0 | 11-0 | 7-1 | 10-0 |
Strength Of Schedule | 34 | 223 | 6 | 112 |
Non-Conference Strength Of Schedule | 290 | 346 | 7 | 333 |
Last Game | W 85-83 Vs. No. 18 Wisconsin | L 103-87 At No. 4 Alabama | L 67-66 At Wake Forest | W 82-62 Vs. South Carolina |
Next Game | At Washington 1/24 | Vs. No. 9 Kentucky 1/25 | Vs. Boston College 1/25 | At Arkansas 1/25 |
UCLA got a much-needed win over No. 18 Wisconsin on Tuesday to snap a four-game losing streak and add a fourth Quad 1 win to their ledger. Strong work in the non-conference season has paid dividends for the Bruins, who can keep themselves in this range by adding another couple of Quad 1 wins in Big Ten play.
Vanderbilt put themselves into the field with their win over Tennessee on Saturday but can't be faulted by following it up with a road loss at No. 4 Alabama. Saturday's home date against No. 9 Kentucky, which has been vulnerable on the road in league play, offers a tremendous chance for a third massive Quad 1 win for their ledger.
North Carolina is sliding the wrong way at the wrong time as a two-game losing streak has dropped the Tar Heels to eight losses overall, with seven of the Quad 1 variety and a home loss to Stanford adding a bad Quad 3 defeat to the board. Elite schedule numbers and a soft bubble are saving North Carolina right now but they will have to start winning games again to feel comfortable with this resume.
Winning over the SEC's worst team is nothing to write home about but it was important for Oklahoma, which finally earned a win in their new conference by beating South Carolina. No one expects greatness in the SEC from the Sooners but a team wanting to stay on this side of the bubble should find a way to go win at Arkansas on Saturday.
March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four In
Team | Nebraska | UCF | Texas | Pittsburgh |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | Big Ten | Big 12 | Big 12 | ACC |
Record | 12-6 (2-5) | 12-6 (3-4) | 13-6 (2-4) | 12-6 (3-4) |
NET | 51 | 76 | 33 | 32 |
Quad 1 Record | 1-5 | 3-5 | 2-5 | 1-5 |
Quad 2 Record | 3-0 | 0-1 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 8-1 | 9-0 | 9-0 | 9-0 |
Strength Of Schedule | 41 | 39 | 145 | 233 |
Non-Conference Strength Of Schedule | 218 | 188 | 353 | 356 |
Last Game | L 69-66 At Maryland | L 108-83 At No. 3 Iowa State | W 61-53 Vs. No. 22 Missouri | L 78-75 Vs. Clemson |
Next Game | Vs. USC 1/22 | Vs. TCU 1/25 | Vs. No. 13 Texas A&M 1/25 | At Syracuse 1/25 |
The Cornhuskers have to hope that Creighton keeps ascending because that road victory is the only Quad 1 win Nebraska has to its name at this point. A four-game skid in league play has left Nebraska in danger and snapping it with a home win against USC on Wednesday feels imperative.
It was hard to know at the time but UCF's opening night win over Texas A&M has been a big result for the Knights' NCAA Tournament prospects. The NET isn't a big fan of UCF, which has the lowest NET for any at-large participant in the field as of today, but their three Quad 1 wins and good enough schedule figures put them in at the moment.
Texas' upset of No. 22 Missouri on Tuesday night gave the Longhorns a much-needed Quad 1 win in league play, helping them steady the ship after a 2-4 start in their first season in the SEC. A putrid non-conference schedule rated in the 350s means Texas has some major work to do in league play to offset that figure, which has disqualified potential at-large teams in the past.
The last team in the field right now is Pittsburgh, which has been sliding down the seed line thanks to a four-game skid in a down ACC. Saturday's trip to Syracuse rates as a must win for the Panthers, who can't afford to give away games to .500 teams in their position.
March Madness Bubble Watch - First Four Out
Team | Indiana | Cincinnati | Ohio State | VCU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | Big Ten | Big 12 | Big Ten | Atlantic 10 |
Record | 14-5 (5-3) | 12-6 (2-5) | 11-8 (3-5) | 15-4 (5-1) |
NET | 63 | 41 | 30 | 47 |
Quad 1 Record | 2-5 | 0-5 | 3-6 | 0-1 |
Quad 2 Record | 1-0 | 4-1 | 1-2 | 3-2 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 11-0 | 8-0 | 6-0 | 11-1 |
Strength Of Schedule | 40 | 74 | 14 | 246 |
Non-Conference Strength Of Schedule | 158 | 311 | 79 | 296 |
Last Game | W 77-76 At Ohio State | L 81-71 Vs. Texas Tech | W 73-70 At No. 20 Purdue | W 81-57 At Rhode Island |
Next Game | At Northwestern 1/22 | At BYU 1/25 | Vs. Iowa 1/27 | Vs. St. Bonaventure 1/24 |
There are few teams in the country more frustrating than Indiana, which has the talent to be far better than their record indicates, and all five of their losses are of the Quad 1 variety. The Big Ten will provide plenty of opportunities for the Hoosiers to add signature wins to their ledger but continuing to avoid bad losses will be a must if Indiana wants to get to the right side of the cut line.
Cincinnati didn't challenge itself in its non-conference schedule, which has left them little breathing room to absorb as many Big 12 losses as they might take in one of the country's most difficult conferences. Finding a way to beat fellow bubbler BYU on the road on Saturday would go a long way towards maintaining the Bearcats' positioning.
Ohio State took a big leap forward with their massive road win at No. 20 Purdue on Tuesday, leaving the Buckeyes on the brink of the tournament with three Quad 1 wins under their belt and good scheduling numbers. The biggest detriment to the Buckeyes' cause is the eight losses on their ledger, meaning they need to stack wins (including avoiding a letdown at home in their next game against Iowa) to stay on the right track.
VCU is on the page today because they trail George Mason by a half game in the A-10 standings and they look like a classic mid-major bubble entry that passes the eye test but didn't enough teams to play them in the non-conference portion of the season. A loss to Seton Hall is something that the Rams would like to have back but they do have an opportunity to avenge a two-point loss to St. Bonaventure, their only defeat in A-10 play, when they host the Bonnies on Friday night.
March Madness Bubble Watch - Next Four Out
Team | SMU | Xavier | Iowa | Drake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Conference | ACC | Big East | Big Ten | Missouri Valley |
Record | 14-5 (5-3) | 12-7 (4-4) | 12-7 (3-5) | 16-2 (6-2) |
NET | 44 | 54 | 62 | 65 |
Quad 1 Record | 0-4 | 1-6 | 0-5 | 2-0 |
Quad 2 Record | 3-1 | 4-1 | 5-1 | 1-1 |
Quad 3/4 Record | 11-0 | 7-0 | 7-1 | 11-1 |
Strength Of Schedule | 125 | 53 | 89 | 212 |
Non-Conference Strength Of Schedule | 255 | 249 | 349 | 264 |
Last Game | L 98-73 Vs. No. 25 Louisville | W 59-57 At No. 7 Marquette | L 72-67 Vs. Minnesota | W 71-53 At Indiana State |
Next Game | At NC State 1/25 | At No. 20 St. John's 1/22 | Vs. Penn State 1/24 | Vs. Valparaiso 1/22 |
SMU's status as a potential tournament team took a major hit when they welcomed No. 25 Louisville to town and looked like they didn't belong on the same floor as the Cardinals. A 25-point loss to the third best team in a down ACC is a bad look for the Mustangs, who don't have a Quad 1 win yet and are done with Duke and North Carolina for the season, leaving them few opportunities to get rid of the zero in their Quad 1 wins ledger.
Xavier has just one Quad 1 victory but scoring a two-point win on the road against a Top 10 team in Marquette certainly raised eyebrows around these parts. This week is a big one for the X-Men as dates at No. 20 St. John's on Wednesday and hosting slumping No. 19 UCONN on Saturday night offer two big opportunities for them to further improve their positioning.
Iowa has been floating around this page for a bit now but losing at home to Minnesota killed any positive momentum the Hawkeyes had. Friday night's game against Penn State is a must-win if the Hawkeyes want to be on this page at this point next week.
The last team we're spotlighting is Drake, which is 16-2 on the year and has two Quad 1 wins (more than North Carolina, Nebraska, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati) in two tries but is being dinged for losing its first two league games in the Missouri Valley. The Bulldogs are a tournament-worthy team and already own a victory over Bradley, the other March Madness worthy side the Valley sports, so if they run up a gaudy won-loss record they'd surely put themselves in the conversation for an at-large bid even if they don't win Arch Madness.
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