March Madness 2025 Bubble Watch: First four out, Last four in on Jan. 15

The beauty of the conference season in college basketball is that it offers plenty of opportunities for teams to build their resumes to earn a ticket to March Madness. As we saw in the first edition of Bubble Watch for the 2025 campaign last week, resumes can vary greatly in terms of NET rankings, schedule strength and quality wins so finding ways to distinguish yourself can make all the difference between making the field and a Selection Sunday snub.

How has the bubble shaken out thanks to some of the past week's results, including a dramatic upset of UCONN by Villanova? Read on to find out, and note that all metrics and rating figures are current after the completion of Tuesday night's games.

Note: All Strength Of Schedule figures are based on KenPom's ratings. Any team currently on top of their conference standings is considered to be an automatic qualifier for the field and is ineligible for the current edition of Bubble Watch.

March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four Byes

North Carolina's scheduling metrics are elite as all six of their losses have been of the Quad 1 variety. Stacking wins in an average ACC and finding a way to avoid bad losses should help them safely climb the seed line as the weeks progress.

A 5-0 start in WCC play is important for Saint Mary's, which doesn't have a loss outside of the Top 2 quadrants but has nine Quad 4 wins padding its resume (along with one against a non-D1 school that doesn't count towards the NET). The addition of Washington State and Oregon State helps add a few stronger opponents to a normally weak WCC schedule, which can only benefit the Gaels if they take advantage of those chances.

Nebraska's momentum took a bit hit when they went to Purdue and got smoked, losing by 36 points in a game that was never really competitive. While all of the Cornhuskers' losses are of the Quad 1 variety, a non-conference strength of schedule that is sitting in the 200s makes any bad losses in league play magnified that much more.

Last week was a bad one for Dayton, which got swept on a road trip and picked up a Quad 3 loss at UMASS that will be a drag on their resume the rest of the way. The Flyers host George Mason and Loyola Chicago this week and a loss to either would be a blow to a resume that boasts strong wins over UCONN and Marquette.

March Madness Bubble Watch - Last Four In

The Tigers did themselves a huge favor with a win at No. 5 Florida on Tuesday, snagging a second monster win for their resume after beating Kansas at home earlier this year. With one of the worst non-conference schedule figures in the country, Missouri could use another big result or two to get the committee to ignore the fact they didn't challenge themselves outside of league play.

New Mexico looked to be trending in the right direction but losing by a point at San Jose State was a disaster, adding a second Quad 3 loss to the Lobos resume. UCLA's sudden fade is also bad for New Mexico as they are clinging to that win against the Bruins from November as one of the key selling points for their at-large bid.

Creighton's resume, as have discussed before, is a lighter version of North Carolina's and they did a good job going sweeping their last week to add two more wins to the board. Saturday's road trip to UCONN is a massive opportunity for the Bluejays to add a quality road victory to their ledger and remain on the right side of the cut line.

The last team in is Arkansas, which is losing ground fast after an 0-4 start to SEC play and brutal non-conference strength of schedule figures. Three of the Razorbacks' league losses came to ranked teams, which is forgiveable, but at some point Arkansas has to show they can beat these kinds of foes if they want entry into March Madness.

March Madness Bubble Watch - First Four Out

The first team out is Iowa, which has been surging of late but misses the field thanks to an 0-5 record against Quad 1 opponents and a mediocre non-conference strength of schedule sitting at 350. The good news for Fran McCaffery's team is that they have begun to build some momentum, which could allow them to snag a couple of Quad 1 wins in league play.

Arizona State is a good team that appears to be struggling with the jump to the more competitive Big 12, as evidenced by a 1-4 start to league play. Dropping a home game to UCF is a result they'd like to have back given how hard it is to secure league wins and Saturday's trip to Cincinnati is a huge game for both teams.

Vanderbilt, as we discussed last week, didn't schedule hard outside of league play likely anticipating this would be a transition year under new head coach Mark Byington. The good news for the program is that the Commodores have exceeded expectations, but their weak non-league schedule makes springing some key upsets in SEC play important to bolster their at-large candidacy.

Its hard to blame Texas for an 0-3 start in SEC play when those three games came against Texas A&M, Auburn and Tennessee, but two of those contests were at home and it would have been nice to see the Longhorns finish off one of their games last week when they lost by a combined nine points. A pillow-soft non-league schedule has reduced the margin of error Texas has in SEC play and it is important they get on the board with a win at Oklahoma on Wednesday.

March Madness Bubble Watch - Next Four Out

Indiana has shown flashes of being a tournament-worthy team but getting run out of the gym in Assembly Hall by Illinois was not a good look for a potential bubble team. With just one Quad 1 victory, Friday night's visit to Ohio State could be a big help for the Hoosiers if they can snag a win there.

Life in the Big 12 is hard but no one expected Cincinnati, which was ranked for a good portion of the non-conference season, to start out 0-4 in league play. The only other winless team in the Big 12 conference season is Colorado, making the Bearcats' trip to Boulder on Wednesday a must-win if they hope to stay on this page next week.

SMU did exactly what they needed to do last week, which is annihilate a bad Georgia Tech team after failing to snag a win against either of the Carolina blue bloods. Taking care of business with a trip to Virginia and a home date against a Miami team led by an interim coach is important for stacking wins in a so-so league.

We extend a hearty welcome to Villanova, which put themselves on the radar with a win over UCONN last week, but the Wildcats failed to consolidate that win by losing on the road at St. John's (understandable) and Xavier (less so). With two Quad 3 losses on their ledger already and a weak non-conference schedule holding them down, Villanova needs more shock-and-awe results like the UCONN victory to push themselves further up the bubble at this time.