If these 5 college football coaches don’t win early, they’re toast

Sometimes you just need to rip the band-aid off. It may be sooner than you want to do it, but it is all a part of the healing process. These college football programs have not gotten the on-field success from their current head coaches of late that they probably should have. Every job is different. However, all of these universities are hoping their college football program can represent them well.

So what I want to do today is highlight five head coaches who need to get off to a hot start to ensure themselves of job security for 2026. Every schedule is different, but a slow start for anyone of them could have disastrous consequences. Obviously, the bulk of the back-end of their schedules is littered with conference opponents. Losing conference games late in the year is how you get fired.

Of the five head coaches I have on this list, not all, but some will inevitably get fired. It may take some time, but there are reasons why I have these coaches on this list and not another five. It is all about living up to lofty to reasonable expectations. The bar has been set for these teams, but the one they have to clear is not all that insurmountable. Winning cures all, but these teams have not done enough.

Let's start with a long-time coach who could be out at his alma mater if he struggles in league play.

5. Oklahoma State Cowboys head coach Mike Gundy

Last season was absolutely pitiful for the Oklahoma State Cowboys. This is a team that was playing in the Big 12 Championship Game two years ago. Rather than back that up and take advantage of the power void at the top of the conference because of Oklahoma and Texas' exodus to the SEC, Oklahoma State finished the season on a nine-game losing skid. The Cowboys went 0-for the Big 12.

I understand how important Mike Gundy is to this program in its identity, but he cannot have another dismal season like he did a year ago. Was last year the anomaly or a sign of more bad things to come? For that reason, it is hard to gauge how good or bad the Pokes might be. This is a team that regularly does the exact opposite of what you expect to do. Stubborn as hell, this team embodies Gundy to a T.

For those who need a refresher, here is what the 2025 season schedule entails for Oklahoma State.

I have Gundy fifth on this list because it could be so hard to fire him for sentimental reasons. That being said, the Pokes should enter Big 12 play at 2-1 on the year with a non-conference loss to Oregon. There are a few road bumps early in conference play, but Oklahoma State needs to get wins before the Texas Tech road date in late October. After that, conference wins may be hard to come by.

The only teams in the second half of their schedule I could feel confident about Oklahoma State beating right now at home vs. Cincinnati on Oct. 18 and at UCF on Nov. 22. Simply put, Oklahoma State needs to do more than beat up on the Group of Five newcomers in league play. Assuming an Oregon loss, Gundy will need to get his team four more wins in conference play to even go bowling.

If Oklahoma State is 3-3 or worse through the Cowboys' first six games, it might it for Coach Gundy.

4. Oklahoma Sooners head coach Brent Venables

I have the head coach of the other rival from the dormant Bedlam Series on this list as well. Brent Venables has made a boat load of money for not doing a whole helluva lot of winning at Oklahoma up to this point. The talent may be there in Norman, but the Sooners face the hardest schedule in the country. The only other comparable one is Florida, and we saw Billy Napier navigate his last season.

Venables is entering his fourth year on the job at OU. While Oklahomans are on the verge of seeing their beloved Oklahoma City Thunder win their first NBA Finals to date, that is not going to excuse Venables from putting forth a third .500-caliber season in four years at the helm of the Sooners. This is a college football blue-blood we are talking about. The move to the SEC has knocked them down.

Here is what Venables' Sooners will be up against when it comes to their 2025 regular-season slate.

Oklahoma's schedule is absolutely brutal! Venables' team needs to get wins when they can. I would argue that beating Michigan in the non-conference is increasingly paramount because how many wins are their to be had in SEC play? While I do expect for Oklahoma to be markedly better than they were a season ago, the Sooners cannot lose at home to the Jackson Arnold-led Auburn Tigers at all!

The reasoning for that is it might be the easiest game in SEC play for the Sooners this year. Beyond that, maybe OU can get the best of Ole Miss at home, Tennessee on the road and rival Missouri at Owen Field. If this team gets to 9-3 with that schedule, it would be quite impressive for Venables. Should the team finish around 6-6 again, then Oklahoma must hire another head coach for 2026.

This is the kind of schedule Oklahoma signed up for by leaving the easier Big 12 to play in the SEC.

3. USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley

I have a very strong feeling this will be the final year that Lincoln Riley gets to lead the USC Trojans to waste everyone's time and money. The move to the Big Ten has created a far more difficult travel schedule than USC realized. Once again, this is what they signed up for in blowing up the Pac-12. Riley has won before, but athletic director Jennifer Cohen did not hire him. Mike Bohn did years ago...

USC struggled to get to a bowl game last year because the Trojans were not ready for Big Ten play. No matter how you slice it, their upcoming slate is both brutal and daunting. Any loss before the road date at Illinois would be inexcusable, probably a fireable offense if USC were to drop a game to either Missouri State or Clay Helton's Georgia Southern Eagles at home or on the road at pitiful Purdue.

For those who want to see what is on the docket for Riley's team, here is who USC has to play in 2025.

The reason why USC needs to start 4-0 with wins over Missouri State, Georgia Southern, Purdue and Michigan State is the only easy game on the slate in the final two-thirds of their season is home vs. Northwestern on Nov. 8. I do not see USC beating Illinois, Notre Dame and Oregon on the road this season. The big question is what is the mark for Riley to keep his job? I would argue that it is 8-4 (5-3).

USC is going to have to find a way to hold off worthy adversaries in conference play the caliber of Michigan, Nebraska, Iowa, and honestly UCLA. The Trojans might be able to afford a slip-up to any of them, but the entire season will be set up with how USC looks in early-to-mid-September. USC has the type of schedule this year that could make or break Riley's tenure leading the team. I think it ends.

If USC fans are good with a Riley-led team going 8-4 in the Big Ten with a Notre Dame loss, that is sad.

2. Arkansas Razorbacks head coach Sam Pittman

For as likable of a guy as Sam Pittman is, the results are not where Arkansas Razorbacks fans believe they should be. The Hogs have become respectable once again under their current head coach, but seemingly every year Pittman finds himself on and off the hot seat. As is the case with Brent Venables at Oklahoma, wins could be hard to come by for the Razorbacks during conference play this season.

Truth be told, it is just a tough slate throughout. Their first two games vs. Alabama A&M at home and instate rival Arkansas State in Little Rock are must-wins. This is because their two other draws in the non-conference are at Memphis and home vs. last year's national runner-up in the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. If Arkansas goes 2-2 in the non-conference, are their four wins to be had in the SEC?

Arkansas' schedule is one of the most challenging in the country for the upcoming 2025 season.

I would argue that Arkansas' two must-win games in SEC play are home vs. Auburn and Mississippi State back-to-back. I would then say they need to take two of the four at Ole Miss, at Tennessee, home vs. Texas A&M and home vs. Missouri. Doing so will afford Arkansas the chance to slip up in the non-conference, outside of a probable loss to Notre Dame. They are not winning at LSU or at Texas.

So with a 9-3 ceiling with probable losses coming to LSU, Notre Dame and Texas, who good can Arkansas really be this year? 8-4 might be good enough, as could 7-5. Should we get to the 6-6 territory, we might be playing with fire when it comes to Pittman's perceived job security. The first two games after the first bye at Tennessee and home vs. Texas A&M should tell us what we need to know.

Pittman is a good man, but having one of the hardest jobs in the country might take its toll on him.

1. Maryland Terrapins head coach Mike Locksley

I do not know how he did it, but Mike Locksley lived long enough last season to fight another year. He is a fantastic offensive mind, but his Maryland Terrapins teams often struggle to play any defense whatsoever. Even more damning, they often turtle up as soon as the weather starts to change and conference play commences. We are looking at our best Power Four candidate to be fired first here.

Maryland has a cakewalk of a non-conference slate with home dates vs. Florida Atlantic, Northern Illinois and Towson. If the Terps somehow lost to FAU or NIU, that could ruin Maryland's season before it even begins. With a new athletic director taking over in Jim Smith with Damon Evans now calling the shots at SMU, I would venture to guess that Locksley is already on thin ice as it is. He is so cooked...

Here is what the 2025 Maryland Terrapins will have to go up against in likely Locksley's last season.

Maryland's Big Ten slate is both unforgiving for them, but fairly navigable for somebody else. I cannot say for certain that there is a win to be had in Big Ten play for Maryland. If I had to pick three, maybe at Wisconsin, at UCLA and at Michigan State, but those are all on the road. Their easiest conference game at home is either Washington, Nebraska or Michigan, but even then, none of those are breezy.

In the end, we might be looking at a team that goes 0-for in the Big Ten. I think a 6-6 (3-6) mark might be enough to save Locksley's job for another season, but we will just be back in the same place this time next year. That is why I argue Maryland needs to go something like 8-4 on the season to ensure Locksley gets another season. With the way Maryland looks, combined with its schedule, no way!

I would be stunned to see Maryland be anything other than a bottom-six team in the Big Ten this year.