5 College Football Playoff contenders heading for a brutal snub at end of the season

Admittedly, I am not usually a numbers guy. Stats do nothing for me, as the only numbers I really care about is money. However, I did stumble upon the most recently updated FPI from ESPN, and I gotta tell you, I was shocked to see each College Football Playoff-contending team's chances of making the 12-team tournament. Some were obvious, and some were alarming, both good and bad, folks.

Naturally, I wrote about it on Monday. While it is not gospel, because the one thing college football does not believe in is chalk, I think it does forecast what each contending team's potential pathway into the playoff is. For teams like Alabama, Georgia, Miami, Ohio State and Texas, they are going to have to really mess up to not get in, as the odds of them making the playoff are so in their favors.

However, there are a handful of teams that are right there on the brink of getting in that may need some help, all things equal. It is a combination of schedule, opportunity and chance. Of the five teams I have listed as potential playoff snub candidates, everyone of them could conceivably get to their conference's title bout and get an automatic qualifying bid. Of course, they'll need luck on their side.

Let's start with an undefeated team that plays in a Power Four league that may only get one team in.

5. BYU Cougars (21.6 percent chance of making College Football Playoff)

BYU has been way better than I expected. I had the Cougars going 4-8 at the start of the year, and they are a perfect 5-0 well into October. Although I would not be the least bit surprised if Kalani Sitake's team ended up getting to Arlington, winning the Big 12 and getting the league's AQ spot, ESPN's analytics department likes Iowa State's chances of making the playoff a little bit more.

The Cyclones are also undefeated at 5-0, but have a 38-percent chance of getting in, when compared to BYU's 21.6. Iowa State only has the 13th-best odds of getting in, but it is still better than BYU's at 17th. While the Cougars' remaining seven Big 12 games are fairly navigable, they still have to win the Holy War over arch rival Utah, a Utes team that ESPN's analytics department absolutely hates.

Iowa State still has to play major rival Kansas State in Farmageddon later this season, but I think there is a bit more trust baked into Matt Campbell surviving the Big 12 gauntlet than Sitake. More importantly, I think people are starting to come to grips that Cyclones quarterback Rocco Becht might be special. Jake Retzlaff has played phenomenally, but he seems to lack a bit of brand equity.

There are other Big 12 teams to watch out for, namely Colorado, but Iowa State looms large for BYU.

4. SMU Mustangs (30.0 percent chance of making College Football Playoff)

Not only is the ACC buck wild, but it is probably going to get two teams in this season, not including Notre Dame, who resides in the same cluster of bids unofficially occupied by the ACC and Big 12. At roughly the halfway point, most people would forecast Clemson and Miami into the playoff in some order, based strictly on the eyetest. Unfortunately, the data suggests only one of them is getting in.

That leaves a very good SMU team on the outside looking in. Rhett Lashlee's are 5-1 on the season, but their only loss on the year was to BYU in non-conference play. It will be huge boost for the Cougars in their overall resume argument should they not win the Big 12. With SMU, I think there is a chance the Mustangs get in with two losses, but the second may have to come in the ACC title bout.

Entering Week 7, SMU has a 30 percent chance of making it in. That is the 16th-best mark in the country for the No. 25-ranked team this week. While their remaining schedule is not what you call easy, the Ponies do get Pittsburgh, Boston College and Cal at home. At Virginia and at Duke may be challenging. And who knows about about at Stanford? Right now, the Ponies are close but no cigar.

This team is legit and well-coached, but SMU really needs for Clemson or Miami to screw up to get in.

3. Texas A&M Aggies (32.5 percent chance of making College Football Playoff)

This is the one that kind of upsets me, actually. Texas A&M looked incredible during the Aggies' home blowout of Missouri last Saturday. It was arguably the most impressive beatdown I have seen one good team have over another this season, edging out Georgia beating the brakes off Clemson way back in Week 1. Unfortunately, the home loss in Week 1 to Notre Dame could keep Texas A&M out.

ESPN gives Texas A&M a 32.5-percent chance of making the playoff. If they win out and get to Atlanta, the Aggies are getting in, no matter the result in the title bout. I would have no issues with that. However, it is in their nature to slip up one more time in the next two months. So at 10-2 (7-1) with a loss to a rival team like LSU or Texas, that puts the Aggies on the brink of playoff elimination.

Admittedly, their loss to Notre Dame is better than the Irish's loss to Northern Illinois. However, all things equal, the Irish would get in over them at 10-2 because they have the head-to-head. At 11-1, they are both probably getting in, and deservedly so, I would imagine. Unfortunately, Texas A&M really needs that 13th data point to guarantee its conclusion in. To date, they have never gotten to Atlanta...

Texas A&M having the 15th-best chance of getting in would have them as one of the first teams out.

2. Clemson Tigers (36.3 percent chance of making College Football Playoff)

I may unpack this later, but have you seen Clemson's remaining schedule? While we should give the Tigers credit for scheduling Georgia, South Carolina and even a high-quality Group of Five program in Appalachian State in the non-conference, their soft as Charmin ACC schedule gives Dabo Swinney's team next to no margin for error. They cannot control how bad their oppponents have looked so far.

While clobbering the likes of North Carolina State, Stanford and Florida State, those are all firmly bottom-half teams in the new ACC. So is Wake Forest. While Louisville and Virginia Tech could be feisty, the Tigers' hardest ACC games are home vs. Virginia and at Pittsburgh, just like we all expected. Although they have a 36.3 percent of getting in, Clemson is cutting it really close here...

According to ESPN's FPI playoff probability, Clemson would be the second team out with the 14th-best shot of getting in. Even projected AQ winners like Boise State and Iowa State have a better shot of getting in over them. Clemson still has the South Carolina game to somewhat boost its resume, but the Tigers may need to win in Charlotte to get in because that beatdown from Georgia was hellacious.

Clemson is a talented team than SMU, but the Ponies may finish with the better resume over them.

1. Tennessee Volunteers (46.8 percent chance of making College Football Playoff)

At the end of the season, Tennessee is going to have no one to blame but themselves for potentially missing out on the College Football Playoff. It may very well all come back to the narrow road loss to Arkansas. Even with a 46.8-percent chance of getting in, that is only the 11th-best mark in ESPN's FPI estimations. Boise State is No. 12 and Iowa State is No. 13. Both will get in because of their AQ spots.

Looking at Tennessee's remaining schedule, the Vols need to split their games vs. Alabama and at Georgia to comfortably get in. This also requires no other slip-ups. At 11-1 (7-1), that will get them in, possibly to Atlanta. Even if the Vols were to lose in Atlanta to fall to 11-2, they would get the benefit of the doubt. But at 10-2 with losses to Arkansas and either to Alabama or Georgia, they're on the brink.

While the Oklahoma win may still carry some weight, the NC State one does not. And to be totally honest, Tennessee needs Vanderbilt to look the part heading into their in-state rivalry game. Arkansas was thought to be Tennessee's third-toughest game of the season entering play last week, and the Vols lost that game. They need to steal one vs. either Alabama or Georgia to make the field.

With the way I have seen Nico Iamaleava look in SEC play, I am not sure he is built for that this year.