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College football rankings based on chance to make the CFP: Alabama drops, four teams without a shot

After a shocking weekend of college football, ESPN’s FPI has an updated look at each team's odds to make the CFP.

By John Buhler

Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State Buckeyes
Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State Buckeyes / Jason Mowry/GettyImages
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Thanks to the power of FPI, ESPN is going to take your idea of who's going to make the expanded College Football Playoff, spin it on its head like a top and watch you react in sheer horror. This was not the intention of the analytics department—or was it? After avoiding daylight like the plague, ESPN did the heavy lifting so you don't have to. How likely is your college football team to make the playoff? ESPN might just have you covered.

Through the first six weeks of the season, only two teams have better than a 90-percent chance of getting in, only five are better than 70-percent, and only nine are better than 50/50. Even more interesting, four teams ranked inside of the AP Top 25 this week don't even have a top-25 chance of getting in. You know who you are, but there is one team with very little hope that might shock you.

Here are this week's college football rankings, based strictly on playoff percentage chances, according to ESPN's FPI.

Top 25 college football teams

Percentage chance to make the playoff

1. No. 1 Texas Longhorns (5-0)

91.2

1. No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0)

91.2

3. No. 6 Miami Hurricanes (6-0)

75.3

4. No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (4-1)

74.8

5. No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide (4-1)

71.1

6. No. 3 Oregon Ducks (5-0)

66.0

7. No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0)

62.4

8. No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels (5-1)

56.4

9. No. 18 Indiana Hoosiers (6-0)

51.3

10. No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-1)

48.9

11. No. 8 Tennessee Volunteers (4-1)

46.8

12. No. 17 Boise State Broncos (4-1)

43.4

13. No. 11 Iowa State Cyclones (5-0)

38.0

14. No. 10 Clemson Tigers (4-1)

36.3

15. No. 15 Texas A&M Aggies (5-1)

32.5

16. No. 25 SMU Mustangs (5-1)

30.0

17. No. 14 BYU Cougars (5-0)

21.6

18. Army Black Knights (5-0)

20.8

19. No. 22 Pittsburgh Panthers (5-0)

17.7

20. Washington State Cougars (4-1)

15.5

20. Tulane Green Wave (4-2)

15.5

22. No. 18 Kansas State Wildcats (4-1)

15.3

23. No. 13 LSU Tigers (4-1)

13.9

24. No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners (4-1)

13.5

25. Colorado Buffaloes (4-1)

12.8

Four teams ranked inside the AP Top 25 this week do not have one of the 25 best playoff chances.

  • No. 21 Missouri Tigers (4-1) (10.6 percent) (27th best)
  • No. 24 Illinois Fighting Illini (4-1) (6.5 percent) (32nd best)
  • No. 16 Utah Utes (4-1) (3.6 percent) (37th best)
  • No. 24 Michigan Wolverines (4-2) (2.7 percent) (43rd best)

And based strictly on percentage chance of making the College Football Playoff, here is how each team gets in.

  1. No. 1 Texas Longhorns (5-0) (91.2 percent) (SEC champion)
  2. No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) (91.2 percent) (Big Ten champion)
  3. No. 6 Miami Hurricanes (6-0) (75.3 percent) (ACC champion)
  4. No. 17 Boise State Broncos (4-1) (43.4 percent) (Mountain West champion)
  5. No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (4-1) (74.8 percent) (SEC runner-up)
  6. No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide (4-1) (71.1 percent) (SEC at-large)
  7. No. 3 Oregon Ducks (5-0) (66.0 percent) (Big Ten runner-up)
  8. No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0) (62.4 percent) (Big Ten at-large)
  9. No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels (4-1) (56.4 percent) (SEC at-large)
  10. No. 18 Indiana Hoosiers (6-0) (51.3 percent) (Big Ten at-large)
  11. No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-1) (48.9 percent) (National independent at-large)
  12. No. 11 Iowa State Cyclones (5-0) (38.0 percent) (Big 12 champion)

These are the first four teams out, based strictly on playoff percentage chances.

13. No. 8 Tennessee Volunteers (4-1) (46.8 percent) (SEC)
14. No. 10 Clemson Tigers (4-1) (36.3 percent) (ACC runner-up)
15. No. 15 Texas A&M Aggies (5-1) (32.5 percent) (SEC)
16. No. 25 SMU Mustangs (5-1) (30.0 percent) (ACC)

This was wild, so let's unpack it all a little more, shall we?

College football rankings: What the Top 25 looks like based on CFP chances

For me, I think you need to be looking at any major discrepancies between what the Associated Press decided and what the computers at ESPN told us. The AP ranks teams based on what has happened, with a little bit of bias, of course. ESPN's FPI index ranks teams in this percentage chance based a little on what has happened, a little on what is to come, and maybe, just maybe a little based on bias, too.

Arguably, the most shocking inclusion in the 12-team playoff field would be No. 18 Indiana getting in as the No. 10 seed, based strictly on its 51.3-percentage chance of getting in. That is the ninth best odds of any team getting in. It's also more likely that Boise State wins the Group of Five at 43.4 percent than Iowa State is to win the Big 12 at 38.0 percent. Thus, it is reflected in the playoff seeding.

The two teams most hurt by this exercise are Tennessee and Clemson. The Vols would be the first team out with a 46.8-percent chance of getting in. Clemson would be the second team out at 36.3 percent. Of the four teams ranked inside the AP Top 25 that don't have a top-25 chance of getting in, the most shocking has to be No. 16 Utah. The Utes only have a 3.6-percent chance to get in.

The fact that the AP ranked Michigan No. 24 when FPI has it with the 43rd best odds to get in is hysterical.

Next. CFB Hot Seat Watch entering Week 7. CFB Hot Seat Watch entering Week 7. dark

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